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  • someclevername

    Saturday 6.29.19 – Target Center – Minneapolis, MN

    ESPN Main Card – 8pm CST

    Francis Ngannou (255.5) vs. Junior Dos Santos (249)
    Joseph Benavidez (126) vs. Jussier Formiga (125.5)
    Demian Maia (171) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (170.5)
    Vinc Pichel (155.5) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (156)
    Drew Dober (156) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (155)
    Paul Craig (204) vs. Alonzo Menifield (204.5)

    ESPN Prelims- 5pm CST

    Journey Newson (135.5) vs. Ricardo Ramos (136)
    Eryk Anders (205) vs. Vinicius Moreira (206)
    Jared Gordon (155.5) vs. Dan Moret (155)
    Dalcha Lungiambula (205) vs. Dequan Townsend (205)
    Amanda Ribas (115) vs. Emily Whitmire (115)
    Junior Albini (266) vs. Maurice Greene (256)

    The Jordan Griffin vs Vince Murdock fight has been CANCELLED

  • gje627

    FYI: Dequan Townsend will fight at 205 (Light Heavyweight) against Dalcha Lungiambula as a late replacement for Justin Ledet (announced earlier today). Likely to fight #11 so just after Gordon/Moret, but obviously this could change.

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    FYI: Dequan Townsend will fight at 205 (Light Heavyweight) against Dalcha Lungiambula as a late replacement for Justin Ledet (announced earlier today). Likely to fight #11 so just after Gordon/Moret, but obviously this could change.

    Hey, gje, how are you doing? Hope all is well.

    Thanks for the heads up!

  • thevogaman

    I’m hoping they add it with Dalcha at 8700. Still need to tape the other guy.

    This card seems like it’s going to be really hard to find value. I see the 8k group being close and relatively low scoring.

    For some reason Emily Whitmire is standing out to me with her wrestling upside, but it’s pretty hard to know what to expect from Ribas. Also maybe Vinicius can wall and stall his way into some takedowns and top control.

    Probably throw some Bear Jew lineups out there chasing a meme come from behind submission after getting his ass kicked for 14 minutes, too.

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    Hey, gje, how are you doing? Hope all is well.

    Thanks for the heads up!

    All is great !!!

    Thanks for asking !!!

  • gje627

    Dalcha’s definitely the scariest fighter on this card (Ngannou included) and maybe the scariest UFC fighter in toto. A little unrefined but massive power and athleticism.

    I’m sure the fight will be added by DK since it’s only Wednesday. Seems like 8700 would be a steal.

    Since I’m too stupid to play on my own without numbers, spent the last several months building-out a monster UFC database (okay, small monster as I’m not quite done yet).

    Some preliminary analysis has been surprising…..

    If I have time and/or if I play…. I will forward some numbers to someclevername to post at his discretion (for those who “used” to know me…my “numbers” posts can get quite long/technical, so I’ll let him to decide to what to share).

  • someclevername

    @gje627 said...

    If I have time and/or if I play…. I will forward some numbers to someclevername to post at his discretion (for those who “used” to know me…my “numbers” posts can get quite long/technical, so I’ll let him to decide to what to share).

    LOL oh it’ll be real ugly if I try to post your tables – if you end up having time please feel free to post whatever tables, numbers, etc you want!

  • thevogaman

    Yeah, I’d like to see. So little MMA fantasy content out there really.

    Doing some builds… ugh this card is tough. Only value prices I see are Ngannou and Menifield. Lots of 7k guys like Tony Martin, Formiga, even Pichel with real paths to win…. but I dont see a way for any of them to score even 70.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    I’m hoping they add it with Dalcha at 8700

  • gje627

    @someclevername said...

    Definitely a good call by thevogaman. !!!

    Wonder if DK boxed themselves in a corner with posting salaries just prior to this fight being added. Given the way DK salaries work, this really was the highest salary they could have given Dalcha, unless they were to go 9600 which is definitely not reasonable (though I think Dalcha will destroy Townsend, you never know with two debut fighters, especially from different organizations) but after opening late yesterday at -230, Dalcha’s currently at -275 and I would be surprised if he is less than -300 come Saturday and an even higher ITD line than his current -150, which is pretty strong in and of itself.

    Oddly, I think the lowest priced fighter on the card, Reyes, may be one of the livelier dogs. He’s always in for a scrap, likes to stay busy, and has reasonable power. While Dober is obviously the better fighter, not sure 9500 is justified relative to the other strong favorites on this card.

    Think we’re going to see a lot of Dalcha, Ngannou, Reyes core lineups, with one or two more expensive fighters and maybe a punt.

    EDIT: 15 minutes after I posted, Dalcha now at -285 (still -150 ITD). Seems like the sharps were/are buying the better odds early and not waiting until Saturday.

  • thevogaman

    The odds make sense for Dober but I can see Polo being scrappy enough to kind of force Dober into a dog fight more than Dober should allow. Dober going to be low owned though.

    Townsend could maybe have some slight submission upside if the fight goes that long… where Dalcha empties his own gas tank. But I doubt it. I definitely want good exposure to Dalcha.

    I like Pichel on this card. Anyone that can beat Joaquim Silva has a chance against Roosevelt Roberts. I think Netto BJJ is going to surprise people against Haqparast in his next fight too.

  • someclevername

    Griffin / Murdock OFF. Murdock not medically cleared.

  • thevogaman

    @someclevername said...

    Griffin / Murdock OFF. Murdock not medically cleared.

    I’m kind of glad

    It’s funny cause Griffin/Skelly was going to be a good scrap and I would’ve wanted exposure to both at playable prices. Ramos/Pettis would’ve had both guys at playable prices. Dalcha/Ledet would’ve been close prices… damn near pick em. So then Gordon, Roberts, Ngannou, and Menifield all should’ve been $300 more expensive than they are.

    I’ll bet half of the lineups in the big tournament will have Menifield and Ngannou both just based on price.

  • thevogaman

    This card reminds me of an old episode of WWF Superstars on paper. No line value with all of the squash matches… even the main event kind of feels like a squash match.

    Only on paper, though.

  • someclevername

    @thevogaman said...

    This card reminds me of an old episode of WWF Superstars on paper. No line value with all of the squash matches… even the main event kind of feels like a squash match.

    Only on paper, though.

    JDS wins now lol hope you’re happy.

  • GoldenWolf87

    Ugh another difficult one lolz.

  • callmetouch

    Lung will be 50%+ that’s scary

  • iron_tactics

    @callmetouch said...

    Lung will be 50%+ that’s scary

    I dont know why. Townsend positive is thats hes seen a lot of fights, he fought 170 but at 6’ 3. Looking at weigh ins he’s not a bad looking 205 either. I like when people go up in weight, they’re generally faster and now have added power to their striking, sometimes better chin. Anyway, Dalcha is 5’10 or 5’8 ive seen different reports, small light heavyweight. Fights a slow pace, looks really uncomfortable on his back foot which he should not be on, because Townsend has a decent kick, will have range advantage, lot of KOs with those legs. I have to look again but I beleive neither fighter has been Knocked out, and both Townsend and Dalcha has 1 submission loss? Townsend has many submission wins.
    I think this fight plays out to a low point decision.
    Hard to tell about the finish since I have 0 clue what either’s game plan is.

  • iron_tactics

    @thevogaman said...

    The odds make sense for Dober but I can see Polo being scrappy enough to kind of force Dober into a dog fight more than Dober should allow. Dober going to be low owned though.

    Townsend could maybe have some slight submission upside if the fight goes that long… where Dalcha empties his own gas tank. But I doubt it. I definitely want good exposure to Dalcha.

    I like Pichel on this card. Anyone that can beat Joaquim Silva has a chance against Roosevelt Roberts. I think Netto BJJ is going to surprise people against Haqparast in his next fight too.

    Dober usually forces the dog fights so obviously Reyes has a chance because of that. This card will be a fun. I agree with like……2 odds currently, the rest are silly

  • thevogaman

    I agree with the odds on who should win, but not with how wide they are for some of them.

    Dalcha will be chalk and being under the field will be smart, but I don’t think you want to go to Townsend the more I’ve seen of him. This fight being a staring match with Dalcha exploding for some slams and arm drags and weird shit here and there is my best guess… so I’m hoping to be under the field on both. Hoping like you said it’s a low scoring fight.

    Dalcha, Ngannou, Gordon, and Menifield should all be close to 50% so I don’t think it will be that hard to differentiate your lineups; Vinc Pichel followed by Polo Reyes as chalk dogs, too.

    I’ve been upping my exposure to Moret, Craig, and Newson right now. I can see both of them scoring better than anyone else in their range. Moret is a lot bigger than Gordon and with the pace of a Gordon fight, Moret could sneaky score pretty well. Newson is kind of a mystery with tape, but Ramos is a really agressive guy and I could see Newson stealing some rounds where he scores takedowns and has some really defensive lay and pray. Craig’s path to victory is pretty obvious.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if none of the big dogs win and Formiga, Martin, or Ribas are on the optimal with not very impressive scores.

  • jki7p6

    Only have one thing to say about this card, bet the house against

    and go with

  • callmetouch

    @jki7p6 said...

    Only have one thing to say about this card, bet the house against

    and go with

    hahahaha i feel like that will be a stale fight. Green with 60 ss and a decision 60 points

  • callmetouch

    1 hour alert 1 hour alert

  • someclevername

    Warning – I have Ngannou which means JDS sparks him RD1.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    Dalcha will be chalk and being under the field will be smart, but I don’t think you want to go to Townsend the more I’ve seen of him. This fight being a staring match with Dalcha exploding for some slams and arm drags and weird shit here and there is my best guess… so I’m hoping to be under the field on both. Hoping like you said it’s a low scoring fight.

    I decided to fade this fight entirely. Dalcha was saved by the bell a couple matches ago in one that could have easily been stopped, but to his credit, he came out and ended it in the second round. After watching Dalcha, I thought I’d get a few shares of Townsend, but then I watched him and it wasn’t good. I’m hoping for a boring fight.

    On a side note, the best thing about the first Townsend fight I watched was that the referee was in a t-shirt and blue jeans and had a bracelet that was probably to let him back in the building in case he decided to go have a smoke between matches. They may have raffled off the opportunity to ref the main event.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    On a side note, the best thing about the first Townsend fight I watched was that the referee was in a t-shirt and blue jeans and had a bracelet that was probably to let him back in the building in case he decided to go have a smoke between matches. They may have raffled off the opportunity to ref the main event.

    lol

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