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  • someclevername

    Saturday, May 30th, 2020 – UFC APEX – Las Vegas, NV

    ESPN/ESPN+ Main Card – 8pm CT

    Tyron Woodley (170.5) vs Gilbert Burns (170.5)
    Blagoy Ivanov (255.5) vs Augusto Sakai (259.5)
    Billy Quarantillo (149.5)* vs Spike Carlyle (150)*
    Roosevelt Roberts (156) vs Brok Weaver (157.5)**
    Mackenzie Dern (115.5) vs Hannah Cifers (115.5)

    ESPN/ESPN+ Prelims – 5pm CT

    Katlyn Chookagian (126) vs Antonina Shevchenko (125.5)
    Gabriel Green (170.5) vs Daniel Rodriguez (170)
    Jamahal Hill (205.5) vs Klidson Abreu (206)
    Tim Elliott (126) vs Brandon Royval (125.5)
    Louis Smolka (136) vs Casey Kenney (136)
    Chris Gutierrez (145.5) vs Vince Morales (145.5)

    *Quarantillo/Alpha Ginger at 150 pound catchweight

    **Weaver missed the LW limit by 1.5 pounds and will be fined 20% of his purse

  • rourke441

    some interesting bouts again i take the dog in the main event possibly hill-elliott and cifers wow the main event on 6/6 has nunes and spencer

  • someclevername

    Kevin Holland OUT

    https://www.mmamania.com/2020/5/26/21270589/injury-withdrawal-shakes-up-ufc-on-espn-9-fight-card-mma

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    Kevin Holland OUT

    Looks like they found a replacement to fight Rodriguez (not finalized though):

    https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/05/gabriel-green-pegged-to-replace-kevin-holland-at-ufc-on-espn-9-meets-daniel-rodriguez

    I know nothing about him, but it looks like we could have a matchup of low $7,000s fighters with a very good chance of a finish.

    Also, it looks like a stacked card of nicknames, especially with the Alpha Ginger.

  • someclevername

    @smonger19 said...

    Looks like they found a replacement to fight Rodriguez (not finalized though):

    https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/05/gabriel-green-pegged-to-replace-kevin-holland-at-ufc-on-espn-9-meets-daniel-rodriguez

    I know nothing about him, but it looks like we could have a matchup of low $7,000s fighters with a very good chance of a finish.

    Also, it looks like a stacked card of nicknames, especially with the Alpha Ginger.

    That dude got a mane on him!

    I’m not happy that Kevin got injured, but I am elated I don’t have to pick another one of his fights so soon.

  • smonger19

    @someclevername said...

    That dude got a mane on him!

    I dare say it’s glorious.

  • someclevername

    “For all the degenerates, the analysts and the generally curious, UFC official tells me the Apex shows will be contested in a 25’ cage rather than the 30’ octagon we generally see at most UFC events.” – per John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn

  • thevogaman

    It’ll probably backfire, but fading the main might be the way to go this week. With a free square in Rodriguez and only 11 fights, I can see a lot of chalky lineups tying for 1st.

    Lots of live dogs and fights that are obvious fades … going to be tougher than normal to get that solo takedown.

  • joephoto

    Please forgive me for asking every week it seems.
    But are there only 3 round matches ?
    Or is Rodriguez match 5 rounds ? Or co-main 5 rounds ?
    Can’t find that anywhere it seems but here.

  • thevogaman

    Only main events (and/or title fights) are 5 rounds. So the only 5-rounder is Woodley/Burns (and all the other fights are 3 rounds).

    Rodriguez is a free square because he was an underdog… and now he’s the 3rd biggest favorite but he’s still priced as the 5th biggest underdog on the slate at $7400.

  • joephoto

    Thank you Mr. Vogaman.

  • someclevername

    *For future reference – Tapology shows how many rounds for each fight.

    https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/69127-ufc-fight-night

    In the middle of each fight listed, under the weight class, it will say either “5×5” (5 rounds at 5 minutes each) or 3×5 (3 rounds at 5 minutes each).

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    It’ll probably backfire, but fading the main might be the way to go this week.

    I really like this idea. I haven’t made any lineups yet, but I’m guessing I’ll fade it in over 50% of them. Woodley fights are generally low scoring, even in 5 rounds. I do like Burns for his price, but now he’s less necessary to build a winning lineup.

  • thevogaman

    @smonger19 said...

    I really like this idea. I haven’t made any lineups yet, but I’m guessing I’ll fade it in over 50% of them. Woodley fights are generally low scoring, even in 5 rounds. I do like Burns for his price, but now he’s less necessary to build a winning lineup.

    Yeah, same strategy for the main event… only a slight lean towards the Woodley side.

    I really think the tournaments will all be won at Carlyle/Quarantillo.

  • NewMike

    Agree with everyone’s thoughts on the ME. I’m picking Woodley, but I don’t want to. He’s a basket case, but Burns isn’t the type of fighter to give him problems, he loses to pressure fighters. I don’t think Burns can submit TWood, it’s going to be hard to take him down and you need to worry about that power. He also hasn’t fought any real competition lately, the toughest test he had was Hooker and he failed that.

  • smonger19

    @thevogaman said...

    I really think the tournaments will all be won at Carlyle/Quarantillo.

    I think so too. This should be a fun fight with an early end and a lot of points. My initial plan has 65% Quarantillo and 35% Carlyle, but right now I’m planning on taking it in every lineup (I might leave it out of a few later).

    However, I may bump up my Carlyle exposure due to the intangibles
    Nickname: Quarantillo – none
    Carlyle – “The Alpha Ginger”

    Masks during weigh-in: The Alpha Ginger dominated here (edit: for some reason, I’m not able to link to the image, dang it)

  • gje627

    Haven’t posted here in awhile, so thought I would post the same old numbers again ….

    Kind of quit doing it since nobody really seemed to use them.

    Oh well … if anyone is interested … as always … the table is a little wide, so you may need to zoom out to see all the columns. There are 10 total columns. Also if someone is interested, and again, you can just copy the table and paste special, values in Excel and formatting will be retained …. In any other spreadsheet program, the equivalent to those instructions will also work.

    Don’t plan to play the $15 due to the very small number of possible lineups and the likelihood of a huge numbers of ties; but will be playing some volume in other contests.

    Not sure yet … but I agree with everyone’s comments about fading the main event … but probably won’t do it.

    Good Luck tomorrow everyone !!! :)

    ____________________

    66,711 — Total Possible Lineups – at/under $50,000
    25,673 — Total Possible Lineups – No Fight Stacks – at/under $50,000

    ____________________

    UFC ESPN 9 – DK 5Dimes No Vig Fight Odds

    Name Salary Fight Status Win ITD Rd1 TKO/ KO SUB Ends Early
    ——————————- ——— ——— ———- ———— ————- ———— ———— ———— ————
    Tyron Woodley 8800 A fav 60.91% 38.93% 18.92% 37.24% 3.75% 58.60%
    Gilbert Burns 7400 A under 39.09% 22.51% 10.26% 11.19% 16.03% 58.60%
    Tim Elliott 8700 B fav 59.63% 32.06% 17.95% 14.23% 19.59% 53.06%
    Brandon Royval 7500 B under 40.37% 25.99% 15.00% 9.19% 20.90% 53.06%
    Daniel Rodriguez 7300 C fav 74.82% 60.92% 38.60% 49.05% 8.17% 74.01%
    Gabe Green 6800 C under 25.18% 16.38% 9.32% 12.21% 8.71% 74.01%
    Augusto Sakai 8200 D fav 51.16% 21.64% 12.95% 21.16% 2.45% 39.08%
    Blagoy Ivanov 8000 D under 48.84% 20.33% 12.13% 13.59% 11.76% 39.08%
    Billy Quarantillo 8600 E fav 54.43% 32.86% 17.95% 17.59% 18.88% 64.82%
    Spike Carlyle 7600 E under 45.57% 35.18% 20.90% 29.41% 9.10% 64.82%
    Roosevelt Roberts 9200 F fav 75.72% 34.76% 19.86% 11.43% 27.35% 44.94%
    Brok Weaver 7000 F under 24.28% 13.44% 7.54% 8.17% 7.40% 44.94%
    Mackenzie Dern 9300 G fav 78.45% 58.60% 33.87% 9.54% 51.90% 66.93%
    Hannah Cifers 6900 G under 21.55% 11.86% 6.64% 11.18% 2.70% 66.93%
    Antonina Shevchenko 8500 H fav 54.43% 13.16% 7.40% 11.85% 3.82% 20.09%
    Katlyn Chookagian 7700 H under 45.57% 10.34% 6.01% 5.85% 7.16% 20.09%
    Jamahal Hill 8400 I fav 51.62% 20.17% 12.13% 19.27% 3.56% 43.10%
    Klidson Abreu 7800 I under 48.38% 28.17% 14.42% 11.43% 22.17% 43.10%
    Casey Kenney 9100 J fav 70.66% 22.44% 12.95% 13.40% 13.31% 33.07%
    Louis Smolka 7100 J under 29.34% 14.91% 7.54% 6.41% 6.87% 33.07%
    Vince Morales 7900 K co-fav 50.00% 19.90% 11.76% 17.09% 6.98% 28.17%
    Chris Gutierrez 8300 K co-fav 50.00% 12.72% 7.13% 8.10% 6.78% 28.17%

    ___

    All odds as of 1:00 pm MT, 05/29/2020
    ___

    END
    ___

  • NewMike

    I always like to look at the numbers and appreciate the work you put in.

    I just wish I knew how to use them effectively.

  • NewMike

    Is everybody in the free ticket contest?

  • Wooden_Bones

    @gje627 said...

    Haven’t posted here in awhile, so thought I would post the same old numbers again ….

    Kind of quit doing it since nobody really seemed to use them.

    Oh well … if anyone is interested … as always … the table is a little wide, so you may need to zoom out to see all the columns. There are 10 total columns. Also if someone is interested, and again, you can just copy the table and paste special, values in Excel and formatting will be retained …. In any other spreadsheet program, the equivalent to those instructions will also work.

    Don’t plan to play the $15 due to the very small number of possible lineups and the likelihood of a huge numbers of ties; but will be playing some volume in other contests.

    Not sure yet … but I agree with everyone’s comments about fading the main event … but probably won’t do it.

    Good Luck tomorrow everyone !!! :)

    ____________________

    66,711 — Total Possible Lineups – at/under $50,000
    25,673 — Total Possible Lineups – No Fight Stacks – at/under $50,000

    ____________________

    UFC ESPN 9 – DK 5Dimes No Vig Fight Odds

    Name Salary Fight Status Win ITD Rd1 TKO/ KO SUB Ends Early
    ——————————- ——— ——— ———- ———— ————- ———— ———— ———— ————
    Tyron Woodley 8800 A fav 60.91% 38.93% 18.92% 37.24% 3.75% 58.60%
    Gilbert Burns 7400 A under 39.09% 22.51% 10.26% 11.19% 16.03% 58.60%
    Tim Elliott 8700 B fav 59.63% 32.06% 17.95% 14.23% 19.59% 53.06%
    Brandon Royval 7500 B under 40.37% 25.99% 15.00% 9.19% 20.90% 53.06%
    Daniel Rodriguez 7300 C fav 74.82% 60.92% 38.60% 49.05% 8.17% 74.01%
    Gabe Green 6800 C under 25.18% 16.38% 9.32% 12.21% 8.71% 74.01%
    Augusto Sakai 8200 D fav 51.16% 21.64% 12.95% 21.16% 2.45% 39.08%
    Blagoy Ivanov 8000 D under 48.84% 20.33% 12.13% 13.59% 11.76% 39.08%
    Billy Quarantillo 8600 E fav 54.43% 32.86% 17.95% 17.59% 18.88% 64.82%
    Spike Carlyle 7600 E under 45.57% 35.18% 20.90% 29.41% 9.10% 64.82%
    Roosevelt Roberts 9200 F fav 75.72% 34.76% 19.86% 11.43% 27.35% 44.94%
    Brok Weaver 7000 F under 24.28% 13.44% 7.54% 8.17% 7.40% 44.94%
    Mackenzie Dern 9300 G fav 78.45% 58.60% 33.87% 9.54% 51.90% 66.93%
    Hannah Cifers 6900 G under 21.55% 11.86% 6.64% 11.18% 2.70% 66.93%
    Antonina Shevchenko 8500 H fav 54.43% 13.16% 7.40% 11.85% 3.82% 20.09%
    Katlyn Chookagian 7700 H under 45.57% 10.34% 6.01% 5.85% 7.16% 20.09%
    Jamahal Hill 8400 I fav 51.62% 20.17% 12.13% 19.27% 3.56% 43.10%
    Klidson Abreu 7800 I under 48.38% 28.17% 14.42% 11.43% 22.17% 43.10%
    Casey Kenney 9100 J fav 70.66% 22.44% 12.95% 13.40% 13.31% 33.07%
    Louis Smolka 7100 J under 29.34% 14.91% 7.54% 6.41% 6.87% 33.07%
    Vince Morales 7900 K co-fav 50.00% 19.90% 11.76% 17.09% 6.98% 28.17%
    Chris Gutierrez 8300 K co-fav 50.00% 12.72% 7.13% 8.10% 6.78% 28.17%

    ___

    All odds as of 1:00 pm MT, 05/29/2020
    ___

    END
    ___

    Thanks for this! This is exactly what I was searching for.

  • thevogaman

    @gje627 said...

    Kind of quit doing it since nobody really seemed to use them.

    Oh well … if anyone is interested … as always … the table is a little wide, so you may need to zoom out to see all the columns. There are 10 total columns.

    Can you add a best nickname column next time? Just kidding… always appreciate the data.

    I’m going to play 10 in the $15 and hope if I get there (or close) and split a lot of ways, I’ll at least make enough to pay off $150. Also playing some single entries, the $3 20 max entry, and 150 in the mini-Max (which I do every week).

    I got Alpha Ginger over Quarantillo (51% to 48%), so basically all-in on that fight.

    I’m pretty light on Sakai/Ivanov (20%/10%). That fight in the small cage could score a lot better than I’d like… so starting to up my exposure (especially to Sakai). Anybody have ownership projections from other sites?

  • thevogaman

    @NewMike said...

    Is everybody in the free ticket contest?

    Yeah, and speaking of the Millymaker next week…. I think Spencer is going to be able to take a hellacious beating and Nunes is going to score like 130+.

  • theIrrigator

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @gje627 said...

    Kind of quit doing it since nobody really seemed to use them.

    Thanks! I’ll use them until the main sports come back. Playing Nascar tomorrow also so I’ll keep a look out for any of your numbers for that

  • m994770

    I like your numbers as well, and I appreciate you taking the time to post them!

  • futoo

    @gje627 said...

    Haven’t posted here in awhile, so thought I would post the same old numbers again ….

    Kind of quit doing it since nobody really seemed to use them.

    Oh well … if anyone is interested … as always … the table is a little wide, so you may need to zoom out to see all the columns. There are 10 total columns. Also if someone is interested, and again, you can just copy the table and paste special, values in Excel and formatting will be retained …. In any other spreadsheet program, the equivalent to those instructions will also work.

    Don’t plan to play the $15 due to the very small number of possible lineups and the likelihood of a huge numbers of ties; but will be playing some volume in other contests.

    Not sure yet … but I agree with everyone’s comments about fading the main event … but probably won’t do it.

    Good Luck tomorrow everyone !!! :)

    ____________________

    66,711 — Total Possible Lineups – at/under $50,000
    25,673 — Total Possible Lineups – No Fight Stacks – at/under $50,000

    ____________________

    UFC ESPN 9 – DK 5Dimes No Vig Fight Odds

    Name Salary Fight Status Win ITD Rd1 TKO/ KO SUB Ends Early
    ——————————- ——— ——— ———- ———— ————- ———— ———— ———— ————
    Tyron Woodley 8800 A fav 60.91% 38.93% 18.92% 37.24% 3.75% 58.60%
    Gilbert Burns 7400 A under 39.09% 22.51% 10.26% 11.19% 16.03% 58.60%
    Tim Elliott 8700 B fav 59.63% 32.06% 17.95% 14.23% 19.59% 53.06%
    Brandon Royval 7500 B under 40.37% 25.99% 15.00% 9.19% 20.90% 53.06%
    Daniel Rodriguez 7300 C fav 74.82% 60.92% 38.60% 49.05% 8.17% 74.01%
    Gabe Green 6800 C under 25.18% 16.38% 9.32% 12.21% 8.71% 74.01%
    Augusto Sakai 8200 D fav 51.16% 21.64% 12.95% 21.16% 2.45% 39.08%
    Blagoy Ivanov 8000 D under 48.84% 20.33% 12.13% 13.59% 11.76% 39.08%
    Billy Quarantillo 8600 E fav 54.43% 32.86% 17.95% 17.59% 18.88% 64.82%
    Spike Carlyle 7600 E under 45.57% 35.18% 20.90% 29.41% 9.10% 64.82%
    Roosevelt Roberts 9200 F fav 75.72% 34.76% 19.86% 11.43% 27.35% 44.94%
    Brok Weaver 7000 F under 24.28% 13.44% 7.54% 8.17% 7.40% 44.94%
    Mackenzie Dern 9300 G fav 78.45% 58.60% 33.87% 9.54% 51.90% 66.93%
    Hannah Cifers 6900 G under 21.55% 11.86% 6.64% 11.18% 2.70% 66.93%
    Antonina Shevchenko 8500 H fav 54.43% 13.16% 7.40% 11.85% 3.82% 20.09%
    Katlyn Chookagian 7700 H under 45.57% 10.34% 6.01% 5.85% 7.16% 20.09%
    Jamahal Hill 8400 I fav 51.62% 20.17% 12.13% 19.27% 3.56% 43.10%
    Klidson Abreu 7800 I under 48.38% 28.17% 14.42% 11.43% 22.17% 43.10%
    Casey Kenney 9100 J fav 70.66% 22.44% 12.95% 13.40% 13.31% 33.07%
    Louis Smolka 7100 J under 29.34% 14.91% 7.54% 6.41% 6.87% 33.07%
    Vince Morales 7900 K co-fav 50.00% 19.90% 11.76% 17.09% 6.98% 28.17%
    Chris Gutierrez 8300 K co-fav 50.00% 12.72% 7.13% 8.10% 6.78% 28.17%

    ___

    All odds as of 1:00 pm MT, 05/29/2020
    ___

    END
    ___

    Thanks for this! Please keep posting

  • gje627

    Glad more people than I expected are using the numbers !!!

    I’ll start posting them more regular again …. :)

    Also … I lied before …. :(

    Mostly because Vogaman is a bad influence ….

    I threw 4 entries in the $15 ….

    I’m worthless ….

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