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  • whodat2

    When: Sept 17-20

    Where: Mamaroneck, NY

    Course: Winged Foot GC | A par 70 playing at 7477 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Gary Woodland at -13

    Last Year’s Cut: +2 TOP 60 plus ties.

    Coverage: Golf Channel | NBC | Peacock, Streaming: USOpen.com plus other apps

    RG Golf Forum League

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Getty33

    @Carpocarp said...

    +2 or worse is even money to be the winning score. Someone talk me down from the ledge on unloading the clip on that.

    To me that seems like a very fair number to throw out there considering the overall level of play is so much better than it was back in 2006. At the 2020 Memorial which was trying to emulate US Open conditions, 18 players still finished better than +2.

  • Money0227

    @Getty33 said...

    As the betting favorite to win, it’s hardly crazy that they would inflate his line a little bit. Many will bite on the over .

    I don’t think it’s crazy that they raised him. I think it’s crazy that a 1 point raise from 17.5 to 18.5 has put a halt to my round 1 betting (which I’m fine with).

  • Carpocarp

    @Money0227 said...

    As a general rule, I would advise against betting anything more than you can realistically afford. This being said…it’s a great bet in my opinion.

    Aye I’m not talking about betting my mortgage repayments haha, I have a solid bankroll, but thanks. I agree it’s a fair, if even generous, number. My concern is one player shoots even par and pulls away, and third shoots 8 over haha

  • BIF

    @Carpocarp said...

    +2 or worse is even money to be the winning score. Someone talk me down from the ledge on unloading the clip on that.

    If they really cut the rough down today to 4” someone could shoot around Even par for sure. There is at least 3-4 birdie holes so if someone is efficient with the bogey avoidance and eliminates the doubles, they could make 3 birds everyday and post something near even par.

  • Carpocarp

    @Getty33 said...

    To me that seems like a very fair number to throw out there considering the overall level of play is so much better than it was back in 2006. At the 2020 Memorial which was trying to emulate US Open conditions, 18 players still finished better than +2.

    Yeah, I have looked at the memorial as a model for DFS purposes here, but I think this is a different beast. Books aren’t stupid and have access to the same info as you and I but really seems they are gunning to punish people this week.

  • BIF

    @Getty33 said...

    To me that seems like a very fair number to throw out there considering the overall level of play is so much better than it was back in 2006. At the 2020 Memorial which was trying to emulate US Open conditions, 18 players still finished better than +2.

    Par 72 at Jack’s place versus Par 70 this week to start so if you take 8 shots off everyone then only Rahm who was -9 would have been under par at -1 with next best +2.

  • Money0227

    @BIF said...

    If they really cut the rough down today to 4” someone could shoot around Even par for sure. There is at least 3-4 birdie holes so if someone is efficient with the bogey avoidance and eliminates the doubles, they could make 3 birds everyday and post something near even par.

    Haha…sounds simple enough.

  • Carpocarp

    Thanks for your input as always, BIF. If I’m getting even money that one player shoots +2, I think I have to take it. Friday weather is going to wreak havoc also.

  • Ricardo5346

    I feel like pivoting to Mats/Hatton from Berger & Fitz makes too much sense with the weather. I feel like i’m really going to regret it with fitz though.

  • monarch

    @Ricardo5346 said...

    I feel like pivoting to Mats/Hatton from Berger & Fitz makes too much sense with the weather. I feel like i’m really going to regret it with fitz though.

    If it is any help….I like Mats/Hatton so much more without accounting for the weather.

  • Kp24

    Hey guys haven’t had a chance to post much, just work and life getting in the way haha

    Fired up for the US Open tho, love the carnage and par sweating

    Winner: Webb (find the fairway and hopefully grind his way around)

    Fade: DJ + Rahm (contrarian)

    Sleeper: Jimmy Walker (I don’t belong Baltursol was a fluke, he can find make 12 par saves with the best of em)

  • BigRay

    Winner:
    Fade:
    Sleeper: Michael Thompson — (couldn’t find a gif)

  • Getty33

    @BIF said...

    Par 72 at Jack’s place versus Par 70 this week to start so if you take 8 shots off everyone then only Rahm who was -9 would have been under par at -1 with next best +2.

    Excellent point. Even on the tough tracks, the par 5’s are still the birdie holes.

  • ifthethunder

    @BigRay said...

    Sleeper: Michael Thompson — (couldn’t find a gif)

    I haven’t put Thompson in a lineup (yet). Still not even close to working through what I’m doing here. I GOT DAZE! (Err, days.)

    Anyways…I tried to find a Thompson gun gif. NO pair a dice. How about ‘Roland the Headless Thompson gunner?’ giphy says, “Fuk off, gramp paw!” So here we are. Barbarella:
    ~

  • Steverino01

    I’ve got 3 AM/PM and 3 PM/AM. After doing my own meteorology I’m not changing my lineup because there’s not much of a difference. Yes, I was a meteorologist in a previous life.

  • JH822547

    Winner: DJ
    Fade: Rahm, Rory
    Sleeper: Si Woo Kim

    The only weather adjustment I’m making is downgrading Si Woo from winner to sleeper.

  • Getty33

    @ifthethunder said...

    I haven’t put Thompson in a lineup (yet). Still not even close to working through what I’m doing here. I GOT DAZE! (Err, days.)

    Anyways…I tried to find a Thompson gun gif. NO pair a dice. How about ‘Roland the Headless Thompson gunner?’ giphy says, “Fuk off, gramp paw!” So here we are. Barbarella:
    ~

    LMFAO ! That’s just too good. I think I’ll get a quick fix of Werewolves of London and make a drink.

  • qatman

    After vacillating so much I ended up making 20 entries to max enter the $3 and $1 contests, which I almost never do. I was unpleasantly surprised to discover that the lineup maker tool on RG is now behind the paywall. I didn’t even want the projections, just a way to put in percentage ownership brackets and randomly generate lineups from there which I could export. Ah well, did it by hand.

    I ended up with a buttload of Martin Kaymer somehow. Basically played DJ and X at the top with a sprinkling of Rahm and faded the rest of the very top salaries. Guess we’ll see how it goes – I figure I have been donating to MLB lately so this is a small piece, and hopefully I at least have a few lineups in reasonable shape come Sunday.

    Winner: Hideki gets his first major
    Fade: Morikawa at that price. Tiger obviously.
    Sleepers: I have 25% Tanuki Kanaya for some reason, so let’s go with that.

  • depalma13

    @BIF said...

    I disagree – if we get the carnage they are expecting, the position points will be huge as making the cut and finishing 50th means you likely shot +15 to +20 for the tourney and your weekend rounds were not your best scores since you didn’t move up the leaderboard meaning you barely got any positive points. A guy who misses the cut by one shot will have close to as many points as the guys who make the cut and finish 51st to 60th place.

    You want as many Top 10-15’s as you can get and the winner and/or guys in Top 5 is critical to a high GPP finish.

    One article I read, the author said he couldn’t predict the winning score as 1-2 players may pull away and shoot around Even Par but he figured that 3rd place would around 6-8 over par. Of 3rd place is +8 then anyone outside the Top 30 or so is not getting a ton of raw fantasy points (and not any bonuses) so position points will definitely factor into the final equation.

    If the scoring is as bad as they predict and the 6/6% is real low like 2% or less, a 5/6 has a great shot at a GPP win.

    I get positional points are extremely important, but there are eagle opportunities on this course and 4,5,6 can be Birdie+3.

  • lfn1992

    @BIF said...

    I don’t understand what you mean or how your second sentence relates to the first one ?

    Also when the rough around the greens is long and the greens are fast/undulating – I’d 100% rather have a 40-60 foot chip/pitch that I can make a bit of a swing at compared to a 20 foot short-sided chip where it is so easy to be too delicate and leave it in the rough short or else have it come out hot and race by 15-30 feet away.

    My thought process is (and it admittedly could be wrong): You need guys not only great with SG:APP but with guys who can get within 6-8 ft around the green in a variety of different situations and get up and down better than most.

    Ex. Mats shows out in SG: App, SG:Around and Prox FOL:Around, so his opportunities are getting close to the pin

    Whereas Russ Henley has astounding SG:App and good SG:Around, but Prox FOL:Around puts him more in the middle of the pack. He’s good at approach, but he’s well below Mats where it counts. JMHO

  • someclevername

    Single bullet – worried about DJ & X, but you gotta take a stand.

    Winner: Rahm over Rose
    Sleeper: Syme

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    If it fills they’ll likely open up another much smaller one plus if I was DK and saw you entered 100 other contest entries over the past 3 days but intentionally sat on a $100 ticket, I’d say “too bad, you had plenty of time – we aren’t a bank that cashes in tickets” 😂

    such a killjoy…:)

    DK doesnt second generation this type of event(IMHO). I am prepared for entering the LU, entering the 1st LU into the second contest or waiting a bit to go for the cash. (only 5500 more to go.)

  • BigRay

    @ifthethunder said...

    So here we are. Barbarella:

    I like it. After Thompson won the 3M and said it meant so much to get the exemption to be able to play Winged Foot, his favorite course, for the US Open, he has my money..

  • Ricardo5346

    @monarch said...

    If it is any help….I like Mats/Hatton so much more without accounting for the weather.

    Love it. Thanks!

  • rstylz

    Hi guys, new to golf DFS.

    Could someone please direct me to an external web site that has all the players and their finishes at what tournies in the last X amount of time.

    Thanks!

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