I just wanted to get some opinions on how you all see using last years stats versus this years. As part of my mlb research, next to a team name I’ll write what place in the league they are in runs scored, home runs, etc… It would seem like 2019 would be the instinctive route to take, but being only so far in to the season, you have only so large a sample size. So when I deferred to last years, that had more than double the sample size, there were examples of a sizeable disparity. Last year Cleveland was 3rd in runs & 6th in HRs; this year, 24th & 25th.
I realize there can/will be lineup differences…as a quick fix, my thoughts were to take the # of gp last year & this year to find a ratio, & then assign each team my own ranking based on that. Like, if a team played 162 games last year & 54 this year, thats 3 to 1. Then, say the disparity between last years home run placement versus this years is 12; as in last year they were 7th, this year they’re 19th. I’d rank them 11th.
Doing it that way places all the emphasis on quantity & none on recency though, so, perhaps some math to move it slightly more towards the current years stats…
And also, for anyone of the using-previous-years-stats mindset, at what point into a season would you guess you could just focus on current stats—halfway? Three quarters?
Im also curious as to how to rank teams defensively. Some sites will list teams simply in runs scored, and others have things like fielding percentage, errors, & so on.