PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 8-11

    Where: Palm Harbour, FLA

    Course: Innisbrook Copperhead | A par 71 playing at 7340 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Adam Hadwin at -14

    Last Year’s Cut: Even

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Click here for Tim’s DFS World Cup of Golf (Need 11 more players)

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @fuller7586 said...

    Hey, I’ve lurked for the past two years specifically for golf and recently have been trying to run more lineups. I’m hoping you guys can help me with one big thing I’m struggling on. If I’m running 20-40 lineups, how many golfers should I have in my player pool? 20? 25? I always seem to be around that number bit end up wayyyy over weight on a few guys. Lately that has happened to be the chalk bomb in that kills like 60% of my lineups.

    20 teams =120 roster spots 20 players = 30% on every player if done equally
    This is how I usually start when determining my pool of players. Then I break my players down by price group, 9k plus, 8k, 7k, under 7k. If I have five players in each pool I know on avg I have to be 30% on each one. If I like the players that much and feel I can be overweight on them by 10-20% in addition I will leave them alone. If I don’t like being that high in ownership on them I will start adding players I like within that price range. This typically happens in the lower price ranges as I don’t want to be 30% or higher on most of those players. I usually have around 75 teams and end up playing around 30 players up to 35 but I have players who are projected to be 2-3% or less at 8-10% ownership. Hope this helps.

  • Quadhole

    @Cooper08 said...

    20 teams =120 roster spots 20 players = 30% on every player if done equally
    This is how I usually start when determining my pool of players. Then I break my players down by price group, 9k plus, 8k, 7k, under 7k. If I have five players in each pool I know on avg I have to be 30% on each one. If I like the players that much and feel I can be overweight on them by 10-20% in addition I will leave them alone. If I don’t like being that high in ownership on them I will start adding players I like within that price range. This typically happens in the lower price ranges as I don’t want to be 30% or higher on most of those players. I usually have around 75 teams and end up playing around 30 players up to 35 but I have players who are projected to be 2-3% or less at 8-10% ownership. Hope this helps.

    Been trying to keep it simple in the 20 team max. I find 6 players that I really like, play that team once and again in the single entrys.
    I then go back to the 20 max and start swaping out one guy on each team for the other 19 teams, sometimes two guys. Still end up with the same core, only mixed a little better.
    Just seems easier that way if you are only doing 20 teams, can add,add,add, then tinker thru the week based on news. I had the same problem as someone else with my PIG lineup, mess it up, just not playing it anymore out of fear.

  • Jeddy3

    I think I like Keegan at 7k this week. Can someone talk me off that ledge?

  • BIF

    Sent out a bunch of H2H and put up a few in the RG League Lobby if anyone is interested.

  • Powellbr

    Tim I would be interested in the World Cup of golf if room.

  • timusbr

    @Powellbr said...

    Tim I would be interested in the World Cup of golf if room.

    sent an invite.

    a large amount of people have entered the league today that didnt previously indicate a desire.
    This is all to the good.
    71 total have now indicated and 48 have joined the contest. All are welcome to join.

    Still no Notorious, Stlcards, or FOF :(

  • keephustlincuz

    @BIF said...

    Sent out a bunch of H2H and put up a few in the RG League Lobby if anyone is interested.

    PGA or Euro? What price?

  • BIF

    @keephustlincuz said...

    PGA or Euro? What price?

    PGA, the ones I put up in the RG League on DK are $5

  • BIF

    @Jeddy3 said...

    I think I like Keegan at 7k this week. Can someone talk me off that ledge?

    I trust his iron game on the approaches; I’m just not sure on his long game here.

  • Dunzor

    @BIF said...

    I trust his iron game on the approaches; I’m just not sure on his long game here.

    Any faith in Hadley to bounce back after his awful showing at the Honda? He’s been killing it with his irons so far this year and he’s a Georgia/NC guy who should be comfortable on Bermuda. His price is back in the nice value range so I’m considering taking him for the bounce back spot after he disappointed everyone at the Honda

  • dangasin

    @Cooper08 said...

    From 2016 to current how many players who are more expensive than him have a significant amount of wins?

    I have to partially disagree with this. Since 2016, Spieth, Garcia, stenson won majors and regular events ; Rory bagged 2 playoff and 1 international victory, Rose 3 international victories; Finau won the puerto rico open(don’t know how much that counts though). Casey and woods did jack though.

  • BIF

    @Dunzor said...

    Any faith in Hadley to bounce back after his awful showing at the Honda? He’s been killing it with his irons so far this year and he’s a Georgia/NC guy who should be comfortable on Bermuda. His price is back in the nice value range so I’m considering taking him for the bounce back spot after he disappointed everyone at the Honda

    He can’t be any worse this week and this course fits him better plus with all the other good value guys, he may go underowned.

  • tmac178

    This seems like a going thru the motions before the API for the big names. Gonna focus on hot rookies & guys in danger of losing their playing status….

  • Kp24

    @tmac178 said...

    This seems like a going thru the motions before the API for the big names. Gonna focus on hot rookies & guys in danger of losing their playing status….

    Smylie needs his card and needs a good finish bad. I legit thought about playing him just on narrative. I mean he’s gotta dig out a good result soon…right?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @dangasin said...

    I have to partially disagree with this. Since 2016, Spieth, Garcia, stenson won majors and regular events ; Rory bagged 2 playoff and 1 international victory, Rose 3 international victories; Finau won the puerto rico open(don’t know how much that counts though). Casey and woods did jack though.

    I see were you are coming from but note I said significant, 2-3 wins over a two and one quarter of year time frame is not significant. No doubt I agree those players have more ability to win more tournaments than Ryan Moore but the fact is there abilities are limited due to the pure amount of talent within the game of golf currently. Just this year we have seen Patton Kizzire win twice, Ted Potter win, a 47 year old named Phil win a tournament, a guy who was washed up last year turn his career around with a win named Bubba and a 21 year old from India played incredible golf this past weekend.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tmac178 said...

    This seems like a going thru the motions before the API for the big names. Gonna focus on hot rookies & guys in danger of losing their playing status….

    Not saying it’s a bad idea to go with rookies or players who may lose there card but the big names are not going through the motions at this time of year. There is a tournament called the Masters in five weeks and they all know you have to be in great form leading into that tournament. Look at the last four winners of the Masters and they have all done one or more of the below.
    Win a tournament in there five prior starts to the Masters
    Finish in the T17 of the WGC Mexico/Doral tournament
    Not miss a cut five starts prior to Masters
    Personally I would focus on the mid level players who are close to winning who are not in the Masters or players who need great finishes to get in the T50 in order to qualify for the Masters as they have more equity and a better shot at performing than say a player who might lose his card. An, Smith, Na, Reavie, List, Sneds are a few that come to mind.

  • BIF

    @Kp24 said...

    Smylie needs his card and needs a good finish bad. I legit thought about playing him just on narrative. I mean he’s gotta dig out a good result soon…right?

    The only reason to play Smylie is because you like Natty Light

    Other than that you might like that Smylie’s 1st round 80 will only be 13 behind the leader instead of the usual 15-16 shots.

  • Jamcclea

    @Kp24 said...

    Smylie needs his card and needs a good finish bad. I legit thought about playing him just on narrative. I mean he’s gotta dig out a good result soon…right?

    He might have some good results next year when he’s on the web.com lol

  • BIF

    Potential Deep Dives: here’s a bit of info on some lesser known guys in the field.

    Sam Burns $7300 – he is not going to sneak up on anyone this week and won’t be 0.2% either. He only hit like 31/56 fairways at Honda so that is a little concerning here this week as I doubt he leads the field in putting again. I’m likely a near to full fade this week of Burns as he is priced a little high for me given the veteran and name players with much more history at this tight tricky course priced below Burns. For those that do like him (and why I may play 1-2 lineups with him) one reason would be his SG Approach stats are top tier and that is a needed skill here.

    Ty Strafaci $6700 – Ty is an amateur who attends Georgia Tech; he was given an exemption into this week’s tourney because he won the NCAA’s Valspar tournament last April at The Floridian GC. He is ranked 174th in World Amateur Golf Ranking. I’d stay away from Ty as he has not been impressive enough in his college or Amateur tournaments to warrant a roster spot this week on anyone’s DK lineups.

    Dylan Meyer $6600 – Another Amateur and college player out of a strong Illinois program. I’m a fan of this kid as he looks likes a cross between Harry Potter and your IT help desk guy but the kid can flat out play. He is about 5’9” ish, wears glasses and weighs about 140 pounds but he has a huge infectious personality. He is ranked as the #6 Amateur in the world currently and is probably not going to Over power a bombers style course but here at a tougher course where accuracy trumps length, I can see him making the cut and maybe challenging for a Top 30-40. He has played in one other PGA event before; it was last summmer at the John Deere where he missed the cut by 2 shots shooting even par over 2 days. The JD Classic is a bit more of a birdie fest and not really where I’d see him compete at on his level yet as just a 22yr old. He’ll probably be 0.3-0.4% owned and I’ll probably have 5% of him (which will mean 2-3 lineups across all my entries). I hope we get to see him on TV as he is a likeable kid.

    Xin-Jun Zhang $6600 – a 30yr Web.com Tour graduate from last fall who has actually had a couple good tournies on the PGA Tour this year. He had some issue a year or two ago in China signing 2 incorrect scorecards and was banned for 6 months but stilll finished top 2 or 3 on their money list. He seems to have put that all behind him since coming to the US to play full time. A fairly accurate hitter that could be a sleeper here. His best finishes among his 6 made cuts have come at Wailalae at the Sony which has been tossed around as a corollary course for this week and he finishes 43rd at Pebble. His finish at Pebble could have been better if not for a mini bogey streak his final round. I’d consider the Pebble tourney courses also a corollary to Innisbrook as well because of the premium on approach shots. He also finished 20th at Mayakoba last fall on another course where hitting fairways is important. He’s played a lot of golf going 6/11 in made cuts but did have last week off after playing 3 in a row and 6 of last 7 weeks. I’ll have a couple of Zhang as the upside Top 25 is there and he could honestly be 0.0% owned on your DK lineup page which really means 0.03 or 0.04% but still microscopic.

    Jimmy Stanger $7000 – this Tampa resident missed the cut badly here last year as the only Amateur in the field while a Senior at Virginia. Now a pro and having gone 1/2 in made cuts with a MC at The Sanderson Farms by just a shot or two and then a 41st place finish in Vegas because of a strong final round 67 that actually got him some TV time. I’m not really a fan of him but I guess there is some angle of this being a home game and his first PGA Tour event of 2018 and since the fall swing. I won’t own any but he has proven that he might have some upside based on his Vegas finish.

  • BIF

    Dang, I finished 14th in a $5 NBA Showdown GPP behind 13 people who all had the same lineup. I had a unique lineup and lost by less than 3 points. Oh well, turned $5 into $20 but would have been $400 for 1st.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/54171297?uc=1036159338

  • dangasin

    @Cooper08 said...

    I see were you are coming from but note I said significant, 2-3 wins over a two and one quarter of year time frame is not significant. No doubt I agree those players have more ability to win more tournaments than Ryan Moore but the fact is there abilities are limited due to the pure amount of talent within the game of golf currently. Just this year we have seen Patton Kizzire win twice, Ted Potter win, a 47 year old named Phil win a tournament, a guy who was washed up last year turn his career around with a win named Bubba and a 21 year old from India played incredible golf this past weekend.

    2-3 wins would be an outstanding career for 95% of the golfers on pga tour.

  • dangasin

    Thanks for the Dives BIF. How about one on Tiger Woods?

  • fluffynuggets

    @dangasin said...

    Thanks for the Dives BIF. How about one on Tiger Woods?

    Yeah! It’s so hard to find any info that fella.

  • golf4040

    When I felt like paying, I know RG did ownership% predictions for the NFL but I believe they used the Thursday-Sunday games to give ownership% predictions…..made sense and provided advantages. Not sure how ownership% is predicted in golf and where do you find legitimate predictions without having to pay?

  • BIF

    @BIF said...

    Dang, I finished 14th in a $5 NBA Showdown GPP behind 13 people who all had the same lineup. I had a unique lineup and lost by less than 3 points. Oh well, turned $5 into $20 but would have been $400 for 1st.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/54171297?uc=1036159338

    Holy fuck I just woke up to $400 extra in my account – guess I finally got an NBA stat correction to go my way as I went to bed winning $20 and woke up to $400 and a GPP win on my single bullet !
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/54171297?uc=

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