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  • whodat2

    When: March 21-24

    Where: Palm Harbour, FLA

    Course: Innisbrook Copperhead | A par 71 playing at 7340 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Paul Casey at -10

    Last Year’s Cut: +3

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • StabiloBoss10

    They are ugly

  • Dunzor

    @StabiloBoss10 said...

    They are ugly

    I thought the pricing looked pretty reasonable to me, it’s a weak field so the top guys are going to get priced up, but I built a quick placeholder lineup on the fly with most of the guys I was thinking about before the salaries and I like the way it came together initially. Will have to do some more research before I finalize anything but I don’t think the pricing is too rough

  • Felixxberg

    It’s crazy how “streaky” golf is. I remember Uihlein, Tway, Varner, Hoffman, etc. being decent DFS picks, but now they make the cut about 50% of the time only.

    Also, is Im playing every week until the end??

  • BIF

    @Felixxberg said...

    Also, is Im playing every week until the end??

    He took a week off a few weeks back after a couple bad outings but otherwise he plays a bunch

  • ValuableTrader

    TBH DJ is gonna be chalk (obviously) but you’ll have to roster him this week.

    Watching him the last few weeks, man he’s playing just about as good as Rory. I would even say definitely more consistent. Rory has been getting himself into rough situations and his talent bailing him out over and over again. Not saying he’s not playing great golf because he is but he’ll have 3-5 holes a round that he needs amazing shots to keep things going. DJ just continues to not make many mistakes. Rory is up, down, up, down. DJ when he doesn’t birdie at least was in the fairway, GIR and putting for birdie. Rory was tee-shot into rough or sand trap. Great 2nd shot that gives him either a 10 footer or another bunker shot. Next hole, plays great. Following hole is back at hitting 190yd bunker shots to 10 feet.

    I can’t wait to pair them up in the Masters…

    Anyways, my point is Rory just won. DJ is winning this week and I’ll be putting cash on it.

    The putter let DJ down Sunday or he would have posted -16 or -17. I’m talking under 7 feet birds he missed. A couple from -3 feet I believe.

  • Dunzor

    @ValuableTrader said...

    I remember watching him here last year and just how excited he was being back after years avoiding the tourney. He loves the area, new sponsor and although he will be chalk, I’m all in.

    Just a warning, I think a lot of people are confusing the Valspar and the RBC Heritage…DJ did not play here last year

  • hautalak

    Smartgolfbets and Yahoo align more than DK so far. Putting that together does Na have the infamous WD baked into price? It’s bad I’m drawn to guys like him and Lee because of price…

    Glover looks to be a fade but at the same time feel like nobody will be on him after last week.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @Felixxberg said...

    now they make the cut about 50% of the time only

    If someone’s actual ability to make the cut is 50%, then you will see many streaks for stretches far longer than seem random.

    Same way the famous roulette thing in Monte Carlo could happen – “August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row.”
    (different distinct probability there – but still random and looks streaky, but can be entirely non-skill driven)

    So going from decent to 50% is probably more “they were always around 50%”

  • dangasin

    Say a player has made 80% of cuts over the past 50 events. Then in event 51 the player MC. Assuming they really do make 80% of cuts, would event 52 still be around 80% chance to make cut, or would it be higher because 2 missed cuts in a row is more unlikely for a 80% cut made player?

    Would that be some sort of markov chain?

  • DeadBenjamin

    Contests posted in League Lobby for Beat the Forum.

    For now…

    $1 × 5
    $2 × 5
    $5 × 9
    $10 × 4
    $20 × 5

  • lfn1992

    @dangasin said...

    Say a player has made 80% of cuts over the past 50 events. Then in event 51 the player MC. Assuming they really do make 80% of cuts, would event 52 still be around 80% chance to make cut, or would it be higher because 2 missed cuts in a row is more unlikely for a 80% cut made player?

    Would that be some sort of markov chain?

    All I know for sure is during event 51, that player somehow has found its way into my player pool

  • dangasin

    @lfn1992 said...

    All I know for sure is during event 51, that player somehow has found its way into my player pool

    And there would be 25 pages devoted discussing the failure of stats, current form, course history, etc.

    Then somebody will mention how their wife’s team based purely on the likeablity of the player’s name is top 10 in a GPP

  • smallANDflaccid

    @dangasin said...

    Say a player has made 80% of cuts over the past 50 events. Then in event 51 the player MC. Assuming they really do make 80% of cuts, would event 52 still be around 80% chance to make cut, or would it be higher because 2 missed cuts in a row is more unlikely for a 80% cut made player?

    Would that be some sort of markov chain?

    Would depend if they are independent events or not.
    Meaning one doesn’t influence the other.

    So flipping a coin and it lands heads now has no influence on how it lands on the next attempt – whether the next attempt is a minute from now, or a week from now.

    So is a missed cut by a player today an independent event from a missed cut the next tournament, or several weeks away?
    That’s a harder question to answer – it certain is connected if they missed that cut because of a hurt back and they still have a hurt back the next time.
    But what if they had a hurt back and now are totally fine?

    Additionally the field matters – missing a cut in a hard field is not the same as missing a cut in an easier field.

    All of that said – if healthy and the fields are similar, then it can be treated as an independent event (even though it isn’t entirely).

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #47

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Anyone like Etulain as a cheap flyer, thought he might be closer to 7k

  • smallANDflaccid

    @dangasin said...

    Would that be some sort of markov chain?

    Conditional probability would be useful (not sure if markov chain vs just Bayes in general).

    Probability of making the cut given they are both not injured and the field strength is X.
    Is equal to:
    the probability that they are not injured and the field strength is X when they make the cut
    times
    the probability that they make the cut
    those two concepts divided by
    the prob (or freq) they are both not injured and the field strength is X.

    Butchering it a bit (a lot?) given the lack of formula ability in here.

    P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A))/P(B)

  • BIF

    @ValuableTrader said...

    I can’t wait to pair them up in the Masters

    Good luck doing that in Masters with pricing as that would likely leave you with your remaining 4 being three Masters rookies and Mike Weir. Pretty tough to take the top 2 salaries and field a roster that has a chance.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @ValuableTrader said...

    TBH DJ is gonna be chalk (obviously) but you’ll have to roster him this week.

    Watching him the last few weeks, man he’s playing just about as good as Rory. I would even say definitely more consistent. Rory has been getting himself into rough situations and his talent bailing him out over and over again. Not saying he’s not playing great golf because he is but he’ll have 3-5 holes a round that he needs amazing shots to keep things going. DJ just continues to not make many mistakes. Rory is up, down, up, down. DJ when he doesn’t birdie at least was in the fairway, GIR and putting for birdie. Rory was tee-shot into rough or sand trap. Great 2nd shot that gives him either a 10 footer or another bunker shot. Next hole, plays great. Following hole is back at hitting 190yd bunker shots to 10 feet.

    I can’t wait to pair them up in the Masters…

    Anyways, my point is Rory just won. DJ is winning this week and I’ll be putting cash on it.

    The putter let DJ down Sunday or he would have posted -16 or -17. I’m talking under 7 feet birds he missed. A couple from -3 feet I believe. I remember watching him here last year and just how excited he was being back after years avoiding the tourney. He loves the area, new sponsor and although he will be chalk, I’m all in.

    Except putting inside 7 feet. Good gosh he missed a lot of putts last week. And some were not even close.

    EDIT: Sorry didn’t fully read your post. It’s been a Monday for sure today.

  • Felixxberg

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Would depend if they are independent events or not.
    Meaning one doesn’t influence the other.

    That’s one of the reasons why DFS isn’t pure gambling. The players we pick are human, so there are a lot of factors that influence their results.

    My point was that it changes quickly. A guy like DeChambeau had average ownership last season when he was priced under $8K. Now he would be 50%+ at that price, even in majors. In fact, last year, on the tournament that was played on March 15th-18th, DeChambeau was $6,900 and was 2.52% owned in the large $33 GPP.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @Felixxberg said...

    My point was that it changes quickly.

    Totally agree. And I think that change certainly can be that a player is actually getting worse (Vs just random luck).

    You guys that are good at this are better at looking at stuff and seeing that.

    I was largely stating the obvious I think and probably not adding a lot of value.

  • Felixxberg

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Totally agree. And I think that change certainly can be that a player is actually getting worse (Vs just random luck).

    You guys that are good at this are better at looking at stuff and seeing that.

    I was largely stating the obvious I think and probably not adding a lot of value.

    Random luck is involved too. We see some hole out eagles almost every week, or very long putts going in. But yes, I imagine some guys get worse for whatever reason. Some of them might get back though. I can’t imagine Spieth never getting back to a top 10 talent.

    I’m not better at DFS golf than anybody here! I like scrolling the thread every week to find some advice.

    The obvious is still relevant!

  • dangasin

    Pretty sure David Duval got worse and never recovered.

  • ValuableTrader

    @Dunzor said...

    Just a warning, I think a lot of people are confusing the Valspar and the RBC Heritage…DJ did not play here last year

    My mistake and you’re right, good catch

    I’ll edit my post

  • 1971hof

    Mayo Link

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/70392401

  • ValuableTrader

    @1971hof said...

    Mayo Link

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/70392401

    Thx man, in

  • Dunzor

    @1971hof said...

    Mayo Link

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/70392401

    Thanks!

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