PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 21-24

    Where: Palm Harbour, FLA

    Course: Innisbrook Copperhead | A par 71 playing at 7340 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Paul Casey at -10

    Last Year’s Cut: +3

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Driven2ThEdge

    @dangasin said...

    Say a player has made 80% of cuts over the past 50 events. Then in event 51 the player MC. Assuming they really do make 80% of cuts, would event 52 still be around 80% chance to make cut, or would it be higher because 2 missed cuts in a row is more unlikely for a 80% cut made player?

    smallANDflacid covered it pretty well. This is basically just the Gambler’s Fallacy, i.e., the roulette wheel has been coming up red so we’re due for a black.

    It’s more complicated with humans, because maybe after a MC, a golfer will focus on training and correcting his mistakes, and will come back stronger. Alternatively, the opposite could be true, and he could be in a slump.

    The proper way to test this would be to first get the average % cut made for a golfer, in this case a hypothetical 80%. Then, create a smaller set of events that only include events directly after a MC, and see if the % cut made is different than the overall baseline. (Then, an additional step would be to do a power calculation to see if the difference is statistically significant.)

  • Jeddy3

    This week is going to be tough to go stars and scrubs. I’m not seeing a ton in the cheap seats.

  • BIF

    @Jeddy3 said...

    This week is going to be tough to go stars and scrubs. I’m not seeing a ton in the cheap seats.

    I think that is recency bias after last week at Players. Given the weakness of this field relative to last couple of weeks and the fact that 50% of the field will make the cut, there is definitely some under 7K value.

    I’m personally not loving a stars/scrubs build this week as I’m not really liking the top salary guys as must owns. Someone made a decent case for DJ but I’m still not sure.

  • lfn1992

    Waiting for the Maybank Open GPPs to show up

  • smallANDflaccid

    Another tournament that would benefit from Gamez.

  • lfn1992

    Maybank Happy Meal is open!

    Already seeing some very interesting value plays making stars/scrubs a possible strategy.

  • Dewoc19

    So does CH not matter beyond 2017 since there was a redesign?

  • dangasin

    @Driven2ThEdge said...

    smallANDflacid covered it pretty well. This is basically just the Gambler’s Fallacy, i.e., the roulette wheel has been coming up red so we’re due for a black.

    It’s more complicated with humans, because maybe after a MC, a golfer will focus on training and correcting his mistakes, and will come back stronger. Alternatively, the opposite could be true, and he could be in a slump.

    The proper way to test this would be to first get the average % cut made for a golfer, in this case a hypothetical 80%. Then, create a smaller set of events that only include events directly after a MC, and see if the % cut made is different than the overall baseline. (Then, an additional step would be to do a power calculation to see if the difference is statistically significant.)

    If a roulette table comes up 100 reds in a row, is the casino wrong for investigating the machine to check for foul play?

  • smallANDflaccid

    @dangasin said...

    If a roulette table comes up 100 reds in a row, is the casino wrong for investigating the machine to check for foul play?

    Sounds like something from a Taleb book where he compares the math side to a mob guy.

  • dangasin

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Sounds like something from a Taleb book where he compares the math side to a mob guy.

    fat tony and the nerd

  • smallANDflaccid

    @dangasin said...

    If a roulette table comes up 100 reds in a row, is the casino wrong for investigating the machine to check for foul play?

    Speaking of which, if you haven’t read it, The Eudaemonic Pie is awesome. It is also still awesome if you have read it.

  • Driven2ThEdge

    @dangasin said...

    If a roulette table comes up 100 reds in a row, is the casino wrong for investigating the machine to check for foul play?

    Obviously not. Don’t think I implied that.

  • Dunzor

    @BIF said...

    I think that is recency bias after last week at Players. Given the weakness of this field relative to last couple of weeks and the fact that 50% of the field will make the cut, there is definitely some under 7K value.

    I’m personally not loving a stars/scrubs build this week as I’m not really liking the top salary guys as must owns. Someone made a decent case for DJ but I’m still not sure.

    Ya the initial lineup I built was much more balanced but if I was building a bunch I’d probably have to have a few with the top guys.

    What are your thoughts on:
    1) how well first timers can do here given it’s another angled/placement course?
    2) some of the young/foreign guys here like KH Lee, the junior phenom guy, Connelly, Meyer….any others I might’ve missed?

  • BIF

    @Dunzor said...

    Ya the initial lineup I built was much more balanced but if I was building a bunch I’d probably have to have a few with the top guys.

    What are your thoughts on:
    1) how well first timers can do here given it’s another angled/placement course?
    2) some of the young/foreign guys here like KH Lee, the junior phenom guy, Connelly, Meyer….any others I might’ve missed?

    I’d have no problem playing first timers here. There is a pretty good good mix of results from first timers. Woodland won on his first try and JT, Stenson, Stallings, Spieth, Harrington and a few others had Top 10 in their maiden voyage here.

    Haven’t looked too hard at the field yet but I’m probably not reaching too deep as I’m not playing too many lineups. Last week I had almost 80 as I had won 70+ tickets for the $10 but only played 2 high dollar entries. This week I’m gonna play 8-10 LU in the $5 and then at least 5 of those in higher dollar stuff like the $44 and $75 or $150. So I doubt I go too risky but I’m sure I’ll end up on a couple sub 6700’s

  • Dunzor

    I feel like whenever I watch one of these guys interviewed on Feherety I always end up liking them more. Just finishing up his episode with Bryson and I definitely understand his approach a lot more now and like him more for it

  • badtrip

    @Dunzor said...

    I feel like whenever I watch one of these guys interviewed on Feherety I always end up liking them more. Just finishing up his episode with Bryson and I definitely understand his approach a lot more now and like him more for it

    I’m watching him now and he makes me want to wear headphones and drink alot.

  • Dunzor

    @badtrip said...

    I’m watching him now and he makes me want to wear headphones and drink alot.

    Looks like it’s Finau next week and they just showed him doing like fire spinning in the preview

  • timgodd375

    Are we going to get the satellites again?

    I want to try to win that masters $555

  • Dunzor

    @timgodd375 said...

    Are we going to get the satellites again?

    I want to try to win that masters $555

    I think we are only getting the forum specific ones for the majors, but DK has the same style $6 entry one to the $555 in the main lobby satellite & qualifiers tab

  • smallANDflaccid

    So Jason Day seemed fine on the course this last one, but it was a more important one – what’s the chance he backs out of this one last min too?

  • noddy

    Will DK have any contests for match play? I’m already looking ahead since I’ll probably go 3/6 this week

  • ButBongoFiesta

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    So Jason Day seemed fine on the course this last one, but it was a more important one – what’s the chance he backs out of this one last min too?

    Busch Gardens is pretty fun

  • Dewoc19

    @noddy said...

    Will DK have any contests for match play? I’m already looking ahead since I’ll probably go 3/6 this week

    Love the optimism already, 3 days before golf even starts and you already have 3 MC

  • noddy

    @Dewoc19 said...

    Love the optimism already, 3 days before golf even starts and you already have 3 MC

    Hoping for that reverse jinx thing

  • timusbr

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Speaking of which, if you haven’t read it, The Eudaemonic Pie is awesome. It is also still awesome if you have read it.

    in the spirit of the week, if its not an edible demon, I think I would fall asleep immediately.

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