PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: March 21-24

    Where: Palm Harbour, FLA

    Course: Innisbrook Copperhead | A par 71 playing at 7340 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Paul Casey at -10

    Last Year’s Cut: +3

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

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    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrowInLockerRoom

    Cant believe I’m right on the bubble of cashing with 5 of 6 and only 1 guy in the top 10.

    7
    14
    27
    37
    43

    I guess Knox helps as I’m sure his dk scoring is way better than 14th but still crazy.

    And thats with a chalk kokrak ace and in the top 3

  • panters

    Don’t know if this has been mentioned yet because I’m not reading this entire forum.

    I’ve grown tired of the PGA Channel showing putts usually for bird and treating them like they’re live. Golf watching used to be fun but when they switch to another hole you know the putt (99% of the time) is going in. It kinda takes the suspense out of it.

    Sorry this is not PGA strategy related but damn.

  • JH822547

    So you want them to show inconsequential shots from also rans just to keep you guessing?

    Or you’d rather when someone struggling 10 shots off the lead drains one from 50 feet they just not show it at all?

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Hey mentioned this yesterday when I said 6/6 means nothing. It does mean something but my point was this tournament you need to target guys who can win aka Dustin Johnson with his elevated win odds.

    I’m currently winning 3.5x my entries and have zero of DJ, Im and Knox
    My key guys spread across my lineups are Casey, Kokrak, Stallings, Furyk, NTaylor and Armour

    Tried to get this point across to you many times last year but Win Odds and DFS salaries are entirely different things (despite being fundamentally based on the same underlying thing for ordering the players). Also by using Vegas odds as your driving factor in selecting your DFS team, I still say that is flawed because that is suggesting that Vegas odds (which are only To Win) are the best predictor in giving you the 6 parts you need to win in DFS. Golf results are way too variable for that.

    DJ is going to be the favorite or second lowest odds in every tournament – likewise he is going to be the Top or second salary in every tournament. None of that means anything in DFS if you stack him with five duds. Even with your plotting of win odds and salary which I still say shows you nothing but the obvious fact that salaries are done more on a straight line allocation between a min-max of $6K and approx $11K where To Win odds will range from 5-1 to 1000-1.

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    Also by using Vegas odds as your driving factor in selecting your DFS team

    I am lock step with you BIF in belief of not following Vegas odds. I much prefer to beat Vegas odds. They are damn good, but they have to do it for everyone every sport. I just need to pick 1 or a few. I think if you walk in cold and look at a sport to play DFS. Vegas odds is the first thing to look at. In golf I (we) have seen winning weeks by people who swear by this approach. All things considered, It beats the “wood” team or “Asian” team approach

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    I am lock step with you BIF in belief of not following Vegas odds. I much prefer to beat Vegas odds. They are damn good, but they have to do it for everyone every sport. I just need to pick 1 or a few. I think if you walk in cold and look at a sport to play DFS. Vegas odds is the first thing to look at. In golf I (we) have seen winning weeks by people who swear by this approach. All things considered, It beats the “wood” team or “Asian” team approach

    Agree Vegas is sharp but as the number of variables (teams/players) increase, they get significantly worse and Golf is even more variable for reasons beyond the size of the field.

  • Kp24

    I was really close to pulling the trigger on Stallings BIF, good call. I don’t remember his price but I think I diversified to Kraft and Matt Jones. Jones is working out alright but I sure wish I kept Stallings in. He’s put some weight on as well.

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    DJ is going to be the favorite or second lowest odds in every tournament – likewise he is going to be the Top or second salary in every tournament. None of that means anything in DFS if you stack him with five duds. Even with your plotting of win odds and salary which I still say shows you nothing but the obvious fact that salaries are done more on a straight line allocation between a min-max of $6K and approx $11K where To Win odds will range from 5-1 to 1000-1.

    The issue here is different though. In every tournament DJ is a near favorite but in almost every tournament there are guys right behind DJ in odds and price. Here DJ was 20% likely to win vs the whole field. He was 2x more likely than Rahm despite being only 500 dollars more.

    I was just saying it should be weighted more here than before due to that. I have changed my stance and said Vegas odds isn’t the end all be all.

  • BIF

    @Kp24 said...

    I was really close to pulling the trigger on Stallings BIF, good call. I don’t remember his price but I think I diversified to Kraft and Matt Jones. Jones is working out alright but I sure wish I kept Stallings in. He’s put some weight on as well.

    Hopefully he can hang around for Top 6; he’s had a couple bad collapses in the last year – thought he was in for one today starting Bird-Double-Bogey and the way he played the front overall but steadied the ship on the back and got a bad lip out on 18 to not post his 3rd round in the 60’s. Now only DJ can get the bonus

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    I’m currently winning 3.5x my entries and have zero of DJ, Im and Knox
    My key guys spread across my lineups are Casey, Kokrak, Stallings, Furyk, NTaylor and Armour

    Tried to get this point across to you many times last year but Win Odds and DFS salaries are entirely different things (despite being fundamentally based on the same underlying thing for ordering the players). Also by using Vegas odds as your driving factor in selecting your DFS team, I still say that is flawed because that is suggesting that Vegas odds (which are only To Win) are the best predictor in giving you the 6 parts you need to win in DFS. Golf results are way too variable for that.

    DJ is going to be the favorite or second lowest odds in every tournament – likewise he is going to be the Top or second salary in every tournament. None of that means anything in DFS if you stack him with five duds. Even with your plotting of win odds and salary which I still say shows you nothing but the obvious fact that salaries are done more on a straight line allocation between a min-max of $6K and approx $11K where To Win odds will range from 5-1 to 1000-1.

    People use Vegas odds incorrectly in DFS…they look for players who are within a certain price point and look for the best odds. If someone is 7.3k and 70/1 while all other players around him are 80-120/1…this only drivers ownership up. The best way to look at it is opposite. This will lead you to lower owned players who have similar chances to win and just as good chances to place better than the lower odd player.

  • BIF

    @Cooper08 said...

    People use Vegas odds incorrectly in DFS…they look for players who are within a certain price point and look for the best odds. If someone is 7.3k and 70/1 while all other players around him are 80-120/1…this only drivers ownership up. The best way to look at it is opposite. This will lead you to lower owned players who have similar chances to win and just as good chances to place better than the lower odd player.

    👍
    I never look at Vegas odds but should to get a better look at where the public steam will land at popular salary spots between 7K and 7500

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    👍
    I never look at Vegas odds but should to get a better look at where the public steam will land at popular salary spots between 7K and 7500

    damn BIF, you should be one of those guys waiting for the line to be released, like some here wait for the salaries to be released. You would already have an idea of who you like and could pound on some initial wrongness on the lines makers, before it adjusts.

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    damn BIF, you should be one of those guys waiting for the line to be released, like some here wait for the salaries to be released. You would already have an idea of who you like and could pound on some initial wrongness on the lines makers, before it adjusts.

    I never look at the To Win odds – I do a bit of that “jump on them early” with bets on the Top 10 / Top 20 lines

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    I never look at the To Win odds – I do a bit of that “jump on them early” with bets on the Top 10 / Top 20 lines

    I dont know how they select the gofer vs golfer betting line but thats where your bread and butter would come from.

  • timusbr

    I managed to hold onto $55 and 1 $10 MLB ticket on showdown from the early lead I set ($330 possible).

    I have Oosty Fritelli casey cook DJ and McDowell on Weekend (.10 cent tickets for achievements ).

    Surfing around while I debate with myself on 1) DJ or no and 2) who to use from the bottom.

    Edit Thats off of $8.60

    yep I will take it, It breaks me even for the week.(also cashed on Rd1, didnt play rd2) I am sinking quickly in classic, my only win will be the #Beatdeadbenjamin

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    I managed to hold onto $55 and 1 $10 MLB ticket on showdown from the early lead I set ($330 possible).

    I have Oosty Fritelli casey cook DJ and McDowell on Weekend (.10 cent tickets for achievements ).

    Surfing around while I debate with myself on 1) DJ or no and 2) who to use from the bottom.

    👍

    That’s good off $8 and change

  • papemerson

    • 699

      RG Overall Ranking

    hey guys….started playing pga on DK and im confused as i was under the impression finishing places does not count when it comes to showdown, but when i check the scoring details it has finishing placing counting to the score. can anyone clarify if finishing spot counts?

  • timgodd375

    @papemerson said...

    hey guys….started playing pga on DK and im confused as i was under the impression finishing places does not count when it comes to showdown, but when i check the scoring details it has finishing placing counting to the score. can anyone clarify if finishing spot counts?

    Only for the final round does finish position matter

  • papemerson

    • 699

      RG Overall Ranking

    thats odd, id figure it be the opposite.

  • depalma13

    @panters said...

    Don’t know if this has been mentioned yet because I’m not reading this entire forum.

    I’ve grown tired of the PGA Channel showing putts usually for bird and treating them like they’re live. Golf watching used to be fun but when they switch to another hole you know the putt (99% of the time) is going in. It kinda takes the suspense out of it.

    Sorry this is not PGA strategy related but damn.

    Obviously, you don’t use the guys I play. Usually it is a switch that shows a guy make a putt or great shot. Than they show my guy and he’s landing in the beach, finding water or sending his chip or putt 60 feet by the hole.

  • jweed76

    I’m 2nd place and 23.5 points behind the leader for the $3765 Masters Front Nine Ticket. I just need Casey and DJ to switch spots and I’ll be in good shape… assuming my other guys don’t fall off a cliff… let’s go DJ!!!

    DaGodfather lurking right behind me in 3rd 😬

  • Pbasniper

    It’s Danny Lee season in showdown today, hope everyone is ready.

  • Pbasniper

    7,843 in the big $6 showdown, 14 people with Hoffman and his opening sand eagle. Wonder how many of those 14 cash?

  • BIF

    @Pbasniper said...

    7,843 in the big $6 showdown, 14 people with Hoffman and his opening sand eagle. Wonder how many of those 14 cash?

    Only took him 2 holes to turn -2 into +1 😂😂

  • Pbasniper

    @BIF said...

    Only took him 2 holes to turn -2 into +1 😂😂

    He’s going to need those 11 points to make up for the rest of the round.

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