MLB FORUM

  • stucker28

    Ive seen the RotoAcademy article on utilizing vegas but I still dont understand what to look for when it comes to Strikeouts and Hits+Runs+RBIs……

    Strikeouts- I understand that you want to go with the highest total but am I looking for a LOW over total when I pick the pitcher?

    Hits+Runs+RBIs- I understand that I want to target 2 and 2.5 bats but what am I looking for when it comes to Over and Under?

    Please explain, im trying to understand all of this so I can better my research and picking players for my Lineups!

    I appreciate all the insight and tips!

  • stucker28

    Anyone??

  • realdeals

    Not entirely sure what you’re asking. But, if vegas has a K total for a SP at 4.5 and another SP K total at 7, it’s obvious which one is expected to get more Ks. Same w/ Hits/RBIs/Runs if I understand your Q.

  • stucker28

    Yes but there usually is and Over/Under that goes with it and just wondering if the over should be a lower number

  • 3rdDFS

    • 90

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #72

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      2014 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    https://www.sportsbettingonline.net/strategy/american-odds/

  • realdeals

    @stucker28 said...

    Yes but there usually is and Over/Under that goes with it and just wondering if the over should be a lower number

    Give me an example of what you’re talking about.

  • theoddsmaker

    These can be totally blown out of proportion and I think a bit redundant.

    A couple examples:

    Chris Sale has an over/under of 9.5 K’s – “wow, look at that total, he is a must play!!”.Two things, this isn’t shocking if you think about it but –

    a) we already know Chris Sale is really good at baseball. Specifically, he is really good at striking guys out. This is why his total is so high. If the sportsbook had it any lower more people would bet on the ‘over’ and if it was higher more people would bet on the ‘under’. This is sort of redundant because with the public perception or even looking at game log it’s not hard to figure out Chris Sale should have one of the higher K totals anytime he pitches.

    b) usually these are already factored into the price. Chris Sale is probably also the highest priced pitcher. If you are pretty MLB smart none of the K props should be too surprising. If Sale’s K prop was 3.5 it isn’t a case of “Vegas thinks something’s up”. I guarantee you if you place a bet on it you will get an email an hour later from customer service telling you they voided your bet since it was an error.

    And when it comes to hitter props not much to take from those either. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Jose Bautista are going to have “good” odds to hit a HR. Nothing to see here and nothing we don’t already know. They usually only pick one hitter from each team so you don’t really get a true sense as to their HR rankings so to speak. Any given day 3 Blue Jays could technically have the best odds to hit a HR but you won’t know that since they will only pick one of the big RHB to offer odds on.

    The whole point is and what cracks me up is when experts point out a prop and go “wow, that’s fishy” and think of using it to their advantage in DFS. My experience is the opposite and instead of making it have any influence on my DFS decision making I just go “that is just a bad line” and make a max bet on it.

    Source: used to help set some player props in Vegas years ago. They are meant to be bet on and can be mis-used or mis-understood by novice DFS players that don’t know how to properly assess them and take them for some reason as literal DFS advice.

    Player props are very low limit bets sportsbooks just offer to get extra volume. They do not spend a whole lot of time on them and some of them can just be flat out “bad”.

  • realdeals

    Agree. If you research and follow baseball (any sport), prop bets don’t add any value. Personally, I don’t look at them.

  • dartjeff

    @theoddsmaker – Would you say between the SO and HR prop lines, the SO one is usually decent and the HR one has a better chance of being weak?

  • stucker28

    @3rdAndSchlong said...

    https://www.sportsbettingonline.net/strategy/american-odds/

    Thanks man!! #Legend

  • yambro

    When it comes to HR lines I would only use it to confirm one pick over another if you are in a coinflip as to who you want. But I mean, only as a way to decide for you. I.E You are stuck between Player A and Player B at 2B for the night….Player A has a HR line while Player B doesnt……may as well go with Player A.

  • bluesjack

    I’ve found that the correlation between Vegas pitching lines and DK pricing is generally in line. Kershaw will always be the highest priced pitcher on DK. What else would you expect?

    There are, however, occasional discrepancies. For example yesterday Vegas had Tillman priced well over -200. DK had him at a very reasonable 6000. He pitched well above his DK price and even got the win. Your mileage may vary

  • herberh2

    I worked for the top off shore sports betting website, Pinnacle Sports, for 3 years. I recently did a podcast with Gabey about how vegas lines interact with DFS. It might help offer some insight. Was thinking about doing a blog on RG. Feel free to get at me on twitter @herberheezy and I will answer any questions I can in 140 characters.

    https://rotogrinders.com/podcasts/how-to-use-vegas-odds-for-daily-fantasy-sports-751561?utm_content=buffer00c71&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

  • socash22

    Herb, I want to know why if Pinny is so big of a book why aren’t they the 1 st book to open overnite lines on any sport? Instead betonline opens every line for almost every sport first and then after a few hours of action pinny and the other books just do a copy and paste. I know the limits on those openers at BOL is $500 and for me they are 250 since I help them shape most lines. What I’m basically thinking is that these other books must have some sort of agreement with BOL to be the sacrificial lamb on openers for a few hours each day.

  • herberh2

    Pinnacle’s max bets are so high that it would damage the brand to open lines at $250, so typically they wait until more information is out to open them. Some markets they are the leader, like most live sports, and will post first.

    There is also a human element to this, so while they strive to post early, a human being still has to post the line and often times that means they wont be the first.

  • socash22

    Well, if pinny is so confident why don’t they post an opener first before BOL and give out 5k openers, but instead they wait until 5 or 6pm and only allow 1 k wagers on openers that where already shaped at BOL
    Your right, some human does post it and it’s some 22 year old kid at BOL putting up the openers and gets paid 200 a day to do it while he is stoned out of his mind. There is no human element on Pinny’s part, because all they do is copy and paste from BOL and let you bet 1k until the next morning when full limits open.

  • herberh2

    Ok dude. Stop trolling.

  • socash22

    Not trolling only telling you the facts, but obviously you know they are facts and have no answers.

    Pinny is the Troll on twitter spewing each day how they find new ways to beat a book with idiotic number crunching garbage but in the meantime they are a Book. Bad marketing on Pinnys part.

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