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  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    I was going to make a blog post out of this but figured it might be better served as a forum post for discussion purposes.

    I’ve spent the better part of the last week compiling some data that looks at how batting order positions and SP’s perform in comparison to the Vegas run total assigned to their team. The results were not surprising. The higher the run total the better the offensive players performed. The lower the run total the better the SP’s performed. Also not surprising was the top spots in the batting order on average scored more fpts. The data encompasses the majority of MLB games through June 6th, 2016 (there are some games missing due to either not having a spread or not being displayed on the RG Lineups page when reviewing past days). The 8 and 9 spots in the batting order are the most unreliable to look at as the differences between AL and NL teams vary dramatically due to the DH so take that into consideration when looking at the data.

    I also compiled this data for each team individually. Too much data to include here but there are some interesting divergences from the league averages. For example, Kansas City SP’s perform well under the league average at every available run total data point. If the Oakland A’s opponent has a run total of 4.51-5, stack that team (Oakland SP’s have scored 53 fpts in 8 games when faced with this scenario). Cardinals SP’s under perform when the run total is less than 4 but over perform when it’s greater than 4.01. Things like this tell some interesting team specific stories that could be useful when constructing rosters.

    What’s this all mean? Nothing shocking as most already knew this but it tells a story that there should be more of a reliance on using Vegas run totals as the starting point for your MLB research. The numbers don’t lie.

    Here’s a look at the basic data – I’ll update this periodically if there is interest in me doing so:

    LTE 2.5 (14 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 8.94
    2 9.30
    3 9.76
    4 6.44
    5 3.50
    6 3.46
    7 2.62
    8 1.74
    9 0.00
    SP 50.43

    2.51-3.00 (66 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 7.56
    2 6.96
    3 7.51
    4 8.64
    5 6.99
    6 5.32
    7 6.81
    8 4.79
    9 2.97
    SP 40.94

    3.01-3.50 (242 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 9.35
    2 9.14
    3 9.28
    4 9.63
    5 7.94
    6 6.76
    7 6.36
    8 5.45
    9 3.37
    SP 35.73

    3.51-4.00 (504 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 9.39
    2 10.13
    3 9.93
    4 9.74
    5 8.69
    6 8.57
    7 7.99
    8 5.98
    9 4.30
    SP 29.49

    4.01-4.50 (546 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 10.75
    2 9.86
    3 11.56
    4 11.13
    5 10.48
    6 9.12
    7 8.40
    8 7.61
    9 4.18
    SP 25.81

    4.51-5.00 (242 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 13.12
    2 11.77
    3 13.67
    4 11.24
    5 10.58
    6 9.45
    7 8.91
    8 8.53
    9 4.83
    SP 22.16

    GTE 5.01 (86 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts
    1 14.23
    2 14.93
    3 13.97
    4 16.43
    5 9.97
    6 11.64
    7 10.26
    8 9.83
    9 3.28
    SP 18.64

  • JBer89

    Great topic! Thanks for the research!

  • myb821

    this is very interesting to see. Any chance you can publicly post the database with all this info (i know thats asking a lot as you did a lot of work to compile it)?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    I need to update it for the last two weeks but I’ll see about posting it once I have.

  • myb821

    @thehazyone said...

    I need to update it for the last two weeks but I’ll see about posting it once I have.

    Thank you!

  • tonedefrob

    @thehazyone said...

    GTE 5.01 (86 games)

    BOP Avg Fpts

    1 14.23

    2 14.93

    3 13.97

    4 16.43

    5 9.97

    6 11.64

    7 10.26

    8 9.83

    9 3.28

    SP 18.64

    Spot the Ryan Raburn

  • toxx6878

    6 hole lol

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