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  • whodat2

    When: February 1-4

    Where: Scottsdale, Arizona

    Course: TPC Scottsdale | A par 71 playing at 7261 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Hideki Matsuyama at -17

    Last Year’s Cut: -1

    Coverage: Golf Channel | CBS | PGA Tour Live

    Google Doc

    Current Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Cincinnatibuck

    Whodat2, can we get the Happy Meal Standings link added to the top post each week?

  • timusbr

    Coop, those % of being close are not what I remember. So maybe i know nothing :)
    but the way I see it is a whole bunch of a couple of % people 110 of 156. So If you narrow the evaluation to top 3 or 5 of all players and the top couple of a lower salary. This as in trying to identify the value that DK missed and the major touts consensus.

  • wolfshield

    @timusbr said...

    I have always been skeptical of predictions on ownership. with that said…
    I think at some point you always use some thinking in choosing your player pool what ownership all might have.
    in big Gpp play it is necessary to GUESS or use someone elses prediction.
    If your player gets pts and less people have that person….you just past most DFS people (at least on that successful player)
    It is IMPORTANT to Gpp play.

    I used the now defunct The Fantasy Fanatics, it was in the ballpark but my guesses where almost as accurate the same amount of times.
    I am not saying im smart…just that IMHO they didnt provide me with value added. and I dont think they would for anyone reading this.

    BGgrafunder – explained some shit and from his sources it does make sense….at least better sense than my personal opinion.

    wolfshield, I would love to hear who the top 3 owned are projected and the top 3 7300 and under. If you can tell me that…I will tell you where they fell in actuals. (edit: silly me you prob can see it in the service)

    my guess is 80-85% success rate is way too High.

    Top 3:

    Mats: 26.5
    Fowler: 21.5
    Rahm/Webb: 21

    7300 and under:

    Molinari: 13
    Grillo/Hadley: 10
    Snedeker: 9

  • lfn1992

    In EURO I have 16 golfers in my pool $7900 or below and an additional 4 golfers on my bench, whoa. Time to whittle this down somehow

  • GaryScott59

    @timusbr said...

    sent an invite on DK, welcome aboard and good luck. any questions just ask, Private message or on this thread.

    Thank you, sir.

  • dangasin

    superstars, you playing finau again?

  • dangasin

    notorious says sg approach is the top stat this week. Jordan spieth all day

  • BIF

    @kps3205s said...

    Many thanks for taking the time to share this info.

    With respect to the Corollary Course info from @futureoffantasy Josh Culp, I’d like to understand why those courses came and what process is used ?

    Josh, you around ???

    I agree with a couple of the courses he listed in terms of look, feel and grass type(s) but then a couple couldn’t be more different (Firestone for example).

    So I guess I’m asking:
    Are correlations being run on individual player results and there is a positive relationship between those who have down well here and at those courses ? Or how do you come up with TPC Scottsdale being a corollary Course to Firestone and Sawgrass ?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    With respect to the Corollary Course from @futureoffantasy Josh Culp, I’d like to understand why those courses came and what process is used ?

    Josh, you around ???

    I agree with a couple of the courses he listed in terms of look, feel and grass type(s) but then a couple couldn’t be more different (Firestone for example).

    So I guess I’m asking:
    Are correlations being run on individual player results and there is a positive relationship between those who have down well here and at those courses ? Or how do you come up with TPC Scottsdale being a corollary Course to Firestone and Sawgrass ?

    I agree, was surprised to see Firestone, Torrey and I think it was Riviera on the list compared to Scottsdale. I do see those three being correlated to each other but like you I am missing why they are correlated to Scottsdale.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @timusbr said...

    Coop, those % of being close are not what I remember. So maybe i know nothing :)
    but the way I see it is a whole bunch of a couple of % people 110 of 156. So If you narrow the evaluation to top 3 or 5 of all players and the top couple of a lower salary. This as in trying to identify the value that DK missed and the major touts consensus.

    The numbers are true as I save the ownership percentages in a email. Like I said before as long as they are within 5% I don’t care because is there really a difference if a player is 20% or 25% owned or 5% vs 10%. I just want to know the ballpark number so I can make sure I go 50-100% over there projected ownership in my player pool ownership.

  • dangasin

    I am thinking of trying out 3 player contests this week. Any opinions of them vs h2h or 5 player?

  • Ndepompei

    anybody like uihlein? down to $6800

  • BIF

    @Cooper08 said...

    I agree, was surprised to see Firestone, Torrey and I think it was Riviera on the list compared to Scottsdale. I do see those three being correlated to each other but like you I am missing why they are correlated to Scottsdale.

    I think of corollary courses as ones that look/feel similar, play in a similar way and/or maybe have the same course architect and maybe same type of ecological zone, weather patterns, etc…

    TPC Scottsdale to me is high desert so I immediately thought of the courses in Palm Springs and Vegas and even the Tucson course that hosted the Match Play for a few years.

    There are a couple funky risk/reward holes here so that made me think of a handful of other courses including the Shell Houston Open.

    Bermuda fairways and average size Bermuda greens (very good surfaces for putting compared to some of the Bermuda greens courses in Florida) so this also aligns with a few of the places I listed above.

    I’m guess Josh’s Course list is based on results of players correlating positively at those courses.

    To speak to your comments Coop, yah Torrey South is much tougher than Scottsdale and Riviera has that crazy kikuyu grass so chipping and pitching is a nightmare as are short 3’ putts (I think Riviera is #1 or 2 annually for most missed short putts) so very different from Scottsdale as well.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Ndepompei said...

    anybody like uihlein? down to $6800

    Love him. I will have him in my blog.

  • nicholasmarsh

    @BenColeyGolf mentioned something about the Stadium Course from the CareerBuilder Challenge as a good comparison. Not sure if he’s accurate or not, but pretty sure he knows more than me.

  • BIF

    @Cooper08 said...

    Love him. I will have him in my blog.

    He’s on my radar too – I’m guessing I won’t be too overweight on him but I’ll end up a little over field ownership.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    He’s on my radar too – I’m guessing I won’t be too overweight on him but I’ll end up a little over field ownership.

    I think he will be around 5% so I am looking at going 10-15% on him. I think Harkins, Streelman and Hadley will be the chalk under 7k followed by McGirt. Also under 7k I am liking a little Na, Si Woo and a couple shares of Blaum.

  • BIF

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    @BenColeyGolf mentioned something about the Stadium Course form the CareerBuilder Challenge as a good comparison. Not sure if he’s accurate or not, but pretty sure he knows more than me.

    I agree – I think there a similarities for sure. The original pre-reno design of the Stadium Course was more penal that what we saw a couple weeks ago so the playability and scoring of the 2 courses is probably closer the past couple of years since TPC Scottsdale was toughened up a bit in 2014.

  • BIF

    @Cooper08 said...

    I think he will be around 5% so I am looking at going 10-15% on him. I think Harkins, Streelman and Hadley will be the chalk under 7k followed by McGirt. Also under 7k I am liking a little Na, Si Woo and a couple shares of Blaum.

    ….to Na or not to Na

    That is one of the 5-6 questions I still need to answer before locking in lineups; Kevin Na would definitely rank in the Top 3 players to fuck me over the past 2 years. Don’t worry Harris English and Patrick Rodgers, I haven’t forgotten about you guys !

  • nicholasmarsh

    Nah to the Na!

    He’ll do decent one of these days, but I don’t mind missing that train in my one lineup. If running multi, imagine you’d have him at least once.

    EDIT: A cut-maker at this event for sure!!!!

    EDIT-EDIT: There are just other options I’d prefer to root for

  • Ndepompei

    @BIF said...

    ….to Na or not to Na

    That is one of the 5-6 questions I still need to answer before locking in lineups; Kevin Na would definitely rank in the Top 3 players to fuck me over the past 2 years. Don’t worry Harris English and Patrick Rodgers, I haven’t forgotten about you guys !

    I’m also on Na just based on course history….he’s burned me too many times just make the cut

  • timusbr

    @Cooper08 said...

    The numbers are true as I save the ownership percentages in a email. Like I said before as long as they are within 5% I don’t care because is there really a difference if a player is 20% or 25% owned or 5% vs 10%. I just want to know the ballpark number so I can make sure I go 50-100% over there projected ownership in my player pool ownership.

    with respects to the numbers, I think its a difference. 5% in 20-25 not so much. 5% from 5-10 yes.

  • Jamcclea

    @Ndepompei said...

    anybody like uihlein? down to $6800

    GPP yes, cash no.

  • Jamcclea

    @Cooper08 said...

    I think he will be around 5% so I am looking at going 10-15% on him. I think Harkins, Streelman and Hadley will be the chalk under 7k followed by McGirt. Also under 7k I am liking a little Na, Si Woo and a couple shares of Blaum.

    spot on and I agree. Just above at 7k I think Grayson will have some ownership behind him too.

  • timgodd375

    Who are we thinking is the cash game chalk? I think it will be Steele, Keegan (Keegan cash chalk sounds pretty gross), finau?, both hideki and Spieth should be about equal I think (25%??)…. Any others expected?

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