BANKROLL FORUM

Comments

  • Morley

    Hey guys so the mlb season was very good but it was based off long term, day by day grinding and careful brm. In a 162 game season, you can really exploit a minor edge.

    With football coming up, I’m seeing a lot of pretty large buyins that I normally would avoid with fields where it seems pretty safe to assume they are weak fields compared to typical years. I could be mistaken, maybe it’s the nature of the beast with so many more casual dsfers in football, but it appears to be a very good spot to overextend myself.

    Having said that, I come from a poker background where players seeing a great overlay proposition or plausibly weak field is the destroyer of bankrolls. Having said that, the way you play is effected and unlike poker, the top dfs players basically enter everything so the difference in competition between a 20 man $1 group vs a $50 20 man group is more or less the same but slightly more casual players in the $1.

    I’m thinking, if I am indeed correct that these are not just normal dfs but one’s where I should have a better than usual expected outcome, then what’s the bankroll commitment for that situation?

    Furthermore, if we say had a bankroll of $100 where we play $10 at a time, at which point would you stop entering single entry with large overlays?

    Let’s say there are: $50, $20, $10, $5, $2, & $1 single entry 50/50s that will only fill 75% of the way. You’ve already committed your $10 on normal matchups but see these tempting overlays right before lock.
    Do you over extend yourself? Do you commit that $88 of $90 remaining or a lesser amount? If you did commit all of it, how would you split lineups, go with best one or multiple and how would you allocate them?

    This is the stuff I think about quite often and I think my background in poker makes me unecessarily cautious.

    Thoughts?

  • Trappist1

    That is a very good question, I think being cautious and having a patient approach will serve you well. I will not chase overlays much and do focus a lot more on the contest payout structure. If it has 10% to first place and flatter payout to top finishes then I might think about it if there is an overlay.

    As for NFL, I have no idea how good you are with it. It took me a season or two to understand NFL DFS as the sample size of the NFL season is so short (16 weeks). The first weeks of the NFL season are best time to go against the grain and good luck grinding it.

  • madmanjayWV

    Be careful about “perceived OVERLAYS” in the “WANING MINUTES

    also — at least u r doing it RIGHTSINGLE ENTRY

    You guys notice this shizzle/nizzle?

    I do have a GENERAL CFB DK? tho
    Why is the 919-man $5 double up got a 27-multi-entry LIMIT?

    U gotta know what UR payin’ to play more than anything ELSE — y GPP is the easiest…but there are ADVANTAGEOUS to gain, IMO, 100%

    P.S. — As a GPP chaser – if I notice “4-sure OVERLAY” — I’m going way ova budget if I feel comfortable with the slate/sport.

  • Morley

    yeah, I’m pretty solid at nfl – this isn’t about unfamiliarity – but really don’t like the small sample size of it all – that’s what scares me.

    For example, I had one soul crushing 2 week loss streak in the mlb season but it’s just standard variance and on the season itself I ran absurdly good the rest of the way. When looking at my year to date MLB results, it’s pretty hard to imagine the feelings of despair I had at one point because I literally thought everything was collapsing in front of me. I honestly thought about quitting, in poker i’ve dealt with worse, but losing over and over again the same guys was pretty soul crushing and unlike poker – where you know if such and such was a good or bad play and can justify variance or plug leaks, in dfs it’s either a good or bad result without too much insight. Yes your model agreed it was a good lineup, and your model has been very accurate most of the year, but two straight weeks of losses make you think something went wrong and you spend hours scrutinizing it for bugs or problems in grabbing the data and yet can’t see anything wrong with it. Is the model broken, was I just running hot earlier? Have other people developed better models? These are not the thoughts of a poker player, who deals much more in absolute terms or right or wrong actions.

    It’s easy to be very conservative with brm over a 183 day long season with slim offerings… but when looking over so many tasty options on a 17 matchup schedule it’s a horse of different color. If i didn’t have brm I would have gone broke during that two week slide but here I am eyeing lustfully way too many leagues and matchups with 2/3 new players and just thinking about all the money I’d be leaving on the table. But then I remember those two weeks and wonder what if that happens again now that I’m thinking in much more aggressive terms?

    I mean, if overlay or fields of rookies were ensured, at what point do you draw the line between leaving money on the table for someone else or going for it yourself?

  • shockermandan

    • Moderator

    @Morley said...

    Do you over extend yourself?

    If it’s truly going to overlay substantially, yes. It’s a better value proposition. Greater opportunity > Greater investment.

    I am not a high stakes (or high volume) player, and this is a hobby for me. I don’t have a defined bankroll.

    To put it in literal terms, I have ~$150 in play this weekend. That’s above average. There have been multiple overlay opportunities (more like 50%) where I have put $1,000 into play on a single night. I would never get close to doing that if the value wasn’t there.

    At 16% rake, it’s a hobby for me. At -34% rake (16% rake – 50% overlay), it’s an investment.

    That being said, I have 100% expected overlay on occasions and seen contests fill at the last second. Be careful to make sure you understand where the entrants are going to fall out.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    What overlay? It is Friday morning. By Sunday at 1259, that overlay will have disappeared.

  • Trappist1

    @sochoice said...

    What overlay? It is Friday morning. By Sunday at 1259, that overlay will have disappeared.

    Yes, as you have people that wait till last minute to make sure it is proper overlay. The launch of a new game (Tennis, CFB) does see true overlays and might be best time to advantage while people work out optimal strategy.

  • tomac

    @sochoice said...

    What overlay? It is Friday morning. By Sunday at 1259, that overlay will have disappeared.

    Historically week 1 has overlaid just about everywhere, almost to the point that I think it is strategic.

  • mtdurham

    When I see overlay like in CFB last week I will increase my amount of entries of course, but not drastically so…

    let’s say i was planning to play my top 5 lineups… now I’ll probably play my top 25 lineups instead…

    now if i felt i was skilled enough to enter 150 intelligent lineups that were +EV then i would probably do that…

    but you have to understand these prize pools are top heavy… so if you arent familiar with the player pool or have a good read on the sport/slate you could easily enter 150 entries and eat a -50% ROI on that event if a backup RB is going to be the primary ball carrier or you werent aware of a WR3 or TE2 that is part of the offense…

    Overlay allows me to play an event more aggressively…. it doesnt allow me to label the event risk free… I look at it as an event I’m likely to lose -25% in a disaster, break even in a “normal” evening, make money in a good evening…and have an enhanced shot at hitting a big score….

    And there is not often overlay… very seldom. It’‘s mostly for new sports/offerings that the casual player is not aware of or comfortable mass entering yet

  • Trappist1

    Well summed up mtdurham. I agree fully with him.

  • NIN1002

    I saw your other post about exporting stuff at Yahoo and I feel like you are talking about Yahoo in this post.

    Last night there was quite a bit of overlay for the Thursday slate, but a LOT of it was wiped out in the final 30 minutes or so. I know the vultures show up close to the final bell…but I was surprised how many jumped in. Looking at percentages from last night, I think most people just reserved lineups and didn’t have time to do a Thursday as….again…the overlay was ridiculous at Yahoo and no doubt everyone jumped on it and can just create a lineup before Sunday and fade the one Thursday game. Hence why I got Julio Jones at 1% ownership. And I only played him to create some lineup differentiation before the main course on Sunday.

    As for my thoughts on football…I’ve learned to understand that baseball, basketball (and now golf I suppose) are all just appetizers for NFL. The other nine months of the year…my objective is to make as much money as I can for football season. Like you, it’s been a helluva year for MLB (and ditto for NBA) so I am armed to the teeth and fully ready for this.

    Last year I was in the same boat as you in the sense that I felt I greatly overextended myself during week 1 of NFL (and I did), but when the dust all settled…I broke pretty much even which was a HUGE relief for me. I didn’t hit my “big one” until week 5 and from that point on it was a much more relaxing experience having banked the huge cash.

    Going into this year, I have no idea how high I’ll end up pushing the envelope on Sunday (I pushed it pretty good for the Thursday slate), but there is no doubt in my mind it will be a personal record of amount of money out there. It is a bit of a nerve racking proposition…but it can be offset somewhat by knowing there is a lot of overlay and creating 5-10 different lineups and mixing them all around. You figure with crazy overlay and having a variety of different entries will create more of a safety net.

    So, I guess my suggestion for NFL is to go wild. This is it. There is never any better overlay than week 1 of NFL at Yahoo at least (sidenote: I only play at Yahoo, so I have no frame of reference for any other site). Week 2 it will no doubt be greatly decreased in the numbers and guarantees and week 3 will be even less than week 2. This is a fact and how it’s been every single year at Yahoo since the first day of Yahoo DFS in NFL (who remember the $1,000,000 guaranteed week 1 contest at Yahoo for NFL three years ago?). That exact same contest today for the same buy in? $250,000 today.

    Good luck out there man!! Be prepared to be nervous and fretting around on Sunday…lol. There just isn’t any way out of it in my mind as you are right…there is going to be heavy overlay and it just must be exploited. I can go back to “lets play this one safe” once NBA/NHL start back up.

  • 2Slik

    I’ve played for several years and hit 3rd on a large NBA GPP a couple years ago. I transferred the money immediately into my bank account. Since then I’ve been -EV despite being a hardcore fan. Can I hit again, I sure hope so but I only play with a few hundred in my account riding the GPP up/down wave. I’ve found that my chances of making money off overlay slates is only minimally higher, many times I’ve lost. Partly I feel this is due to higher competition (one way or another) flooding the lobby and balancing the scale. Some may have found differently than I, but Fantasy Draft in my experience has a similar issue; The rake is lower but the field is more concentrated in sharp players.

    Real overlay only happens a dozen times throughout the year for a site like DK and almost all of those occurrences are due to a new sport or game type. My advice is “Don’t go chasing waterfalls”, you make money by largely using a player pool differently and more aggressively than the masses. That nut player you use at 80% can go down with a knee injury after one play and sink your bankroll regardless of overlay. Be there to use your strategy the next week…

  • Morley

    Guys, when I’m talking about overlay, I’m talking about a sure thing not hoping something that’s half full won’t fill on three days.

    This is a theoretical exercise, this isn’t my first rodeo, I don’t need a lesson in contests filling up.

    The things I’m mostly looking at now and primarily talking about is that a number of options with a much higher than normal amount of inexperienced players came up. Many of these I entered on a whim because the fields were so weak and they kept sprouting new ones and cycle repeated itself.

    I’m now at the point where I’m on pace to drop maybe 10x what I’d expect to normally play because i keep seeing a 19/20 $50 contest with only 3-7 sharks seems too good to be true.

    That and week 1 is nearly always chock full lot overlay and there’s generally overlay to be found anyway.

    Please don’t make this a “listen here son while I do some explainin’ ‘bout the facts of life” and let’s keep it grounded on risk taking during times with perceived +EV offerings.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @Morley said...

    Guys, when I’m talking about overlay, I’m talking about a sure thing not hoping something that’s half full won’t fill on three days.

    This is a theoretical exercise, this isn’t my first rodeo, I don’t need a lesson in contests filling up.

    The things I’m mostly looking at now and primarily talking about is that a number of options with a much higher than normal amount of inexperienced players came up. Many of these I entered on a whim because the fields were so weak and they kept sprouting new ones and cycle repeated itself.

    I’m now at the point where I’m on pace to drop maybe 10x what I’d expect to normally play because i keep seeing a 19/20 $50 contest with only 3-7 sharks seems too good to be true.

    That and week 1 is nearly always chock full lot overlay and there’s generally overlay to be found anyway.

    Please don’t make this a “listen here son while I do some explainin’ ‘bout the facts of life” and let’s keep it grounded on risk taking during times with perceived +EV offerings.

    Well since you are already on pace to drop 10x what you normally play, you have already answered your own questions on bankroll and overextending oneself. Good luck in week one!

  • bigez952

    @Morley said...

    but it appears to be a very good spot to overextend myself.

    In my opinion there is never a good spot to overextend yourself. All it takes is something like last year with David Johnson getting hurt in the first half and your lineup could be sunk regardless of how much overlay or weak the field is. Week 1 is not a bad time to play more than your normal amount but there is no such thing as guaranteed free money so you should always only play what you would be comfortable losing.

  • 2Slik

    So your original post you mentioned you’ve seen players kill their bankroll by overextending, you stated you’re overly cautious, asked for advice, and then insulted fellow members that answered your question contrary to what your first intuition was. I heard there’s this great credit card scheme that pairs well with feeding off the fish field out there…

  • Morley

    @sochoice said...

    Well since you are already on pace to drop 10x what you normally play, you have already answered your own questions on bankroll and overextending oneself. Good luck in week one!

    Not sure if you’re pointing out the obvious to reassure me or for trolling.

    I’m not committed though, you can cancel up to 15 min before they start. These were just registered to mull over and consider.

  • Morley

    @2Slik said...

    So your original post you mentioned you’ve seen players kill their bankroll by overextending, you stated you’re overly cautious, asked for advice, and then insulted fellow members that answered your question contrary to what your first intuition was. I heard there’s this great credit card scheme that pairs well with feeding off the fish field out there…

    I don’t see where I insulted people.

    I intended to start a conversation about brm but with good spots.

    I was also pretty clear that poker is where people killed themselves in making moves and that dfs passive play means you play the same people at all stakes. What killed people in poker was the stronger competition whenever they jump combined with the buyin size. Here, I’m specifically eyeing spots where competition is particularly weak, like only a few big names and none of the really big ones involved so this is quite different, hence the thread.

    I just tried to keep it on track instead of making it a thread of people telling me there was no such thing as overlay – I probably should have just used +EV situations. Maybe I’m coming off as an asshole, if that’s the case I apologize, I don’t usually post on forums and probably need more emojis to indicate non hostility :)

  • Morley

    yeah this is how I’m leaning right now, next few hours going to pick out which ones to drop unless I can conceive of lineups that are diversified enough – but even that I don’t like

  • bigez952

    @Morley said...

    Not sure if you’re pointing out the obvious to reassure me or for trolling.

    I’m not committed though, you can cancel up to 15 min before they start. These were just registered to mull over and consider.

    On DK that is not true that you can cancel contests up to 15 minutes before. Once they fill which many already have your stuck.

  • Morley

    so far so good 72% wins in cash (biggest one that I did because it was an unfamiliar name lost by .2 points)

    260% ROI on gpp but only put in a few bucks on some tiny ones because so deeply committed to cash and leagues – had I not been heavily invested on Saints D I’d probably be writing a suicide note right now for not doing a normal gpp slate

    didn’t add anything, decided not to even look for overlay near lock since I was so invested already

    I won’t know for certain if my donkey brm is going to pay off though since heavily invested in leagues and most are season long – leagues are my specialty though

    Worst league situation has me at 32/100, most I’m in top 10% and I’m winning most of the 10 or less people leagues. Most of these leagues usually pay back about your buyin if you finish top 30%

    so far so good but now I’m upset for not being more of donkey, I normally don’t commit more than 5% on a single night – maybe 10% if there are some juicy matchups, tonight went over 50% and had to talk myself out of playing more :)

    probably would have been better to have been a losing night for my overall dfs discipline to be honest though – what a night, so focused on football I didn’t even notice DeGrom wasn’t playing… oops – quite a few opponents had him in my mlb h2h too so wasn’t so bad lol

  • Morley

    @bigez952 said...

    On DK that is not true that you can cancel contests up to 15 minutes before. Once they fill which many already have your stuck.

    ahh, I just do yahoo, i like the interface better

  • Trappist1

    Great to see it went well for you and 100% agree the Yahoo interface is so much better. Wish they did not pull out of the UK though, as they will have been my number 1 platform. Besides overlay, week 1 was wild as expected and now we can take advantage in week 2 of the recency bias that will be shown to week 1 results.

  • NIN1002

    I’m rooting for you, Canada!!! If there is one thing Yahoo definitely could use…it’s more people!! I don’t know if all the other sites restrict at least 10 different states and foreign countries or not, but that’s the Marissa Mayer way.

  • hendry

    @nin1002 said...

    I’m rooting for you, Canada!!! If there is one thing Yahoo definitely could use…it’s more people!! I don’t know if all the other sites restrict at least 10 different states and foreign countries or not, but that’s the Marissa Mayer way.

    i dont think marissa is still with yahoo, is she?

  • Trappist1

    @Morley said...

    I was also pretty clear that poker is where people killed themselves in making moves and that dfs passive play means you play the same people at all stakes. What killed people in poker was the stronger competition whenever they jump combined with the buyin size.

    What do you mean by DFS passive play ? Appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit. It is very hard to avoid playing the same people in DFS once you move up a certain stake level (mid-high buy-in). Most of the platforms have a churn rate of around 85% and doubt new people are coming into DFS in droves to find +EV situations and weaker competition. Maybe this was the case in 2012-2014 and only a few people are still around that have been playing DFS that long. I do not play Poker so do know the scene except on the superficial level.

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