Hey guys so the mlb season was very good but it was based off long term, day by day grinding and careful brm. In a 162 game season, you can really exploit a minor edge.
With football coming up, I’m seeing a lot of pretty large buyins that I normally would avoid with fields where it seems pretty safe to assume they are weak fields compared to typical years. I could be mistaken, maybe it’s the nature of the beast with so many more casual dsfers in football, but it appears to be a very good spot to overextend myself.
Having said that, I come from a poker background where players seeing a great overlay proposition or plausibly weak field is the destroyer of bankrolls. Having said that, the way you play is effected and unlike poker, the top dfs players basically enter everything so the difference in competition between a 20 man $1 group vs a $50 20 man group is more or less the same but slightly more casual players in the $1.
I’m thinking, if I am indeed correct that these are not just normal dfs but one’s where I should have a better than usual expected outcome, then what’s the bankroll commitment for that situation?
Furthermore, if we say had a bankroll of $100 where we play $10 at a time, at which point would you stop entering single entry with large overlays?
Let’s say there are: $50, $20, $10, $5, $2, & $1 single entry 50/50s that will only fill 75% of the way. You’ve already committed your $10 on normal matchups but see these tempting overlays right before lock.
Do you over extend yourself? Do you commit that $88 of $90 remaining or a lesser amount? If you did commit all of it, how would you split lineups, go with best one or multiple and how would you allocate them?
This is the stuff I think about quite often and I think my background in poker makes me unecessarily cautious.