• Morley

    Hey guys so the mlb season was very good but it was based off long term, day by day grinding and careful brm. In a 162 game season, you can really exploit a minor edge.

    With football coming up, I’m seeing a lot of pretty large buyins that I normally would avoid with fields where it seems pretty safe to assume they are weak fields compared to typical years. I could be mistaken, maybe it’s the nature of the beast with so many more casual dsfers in football, but it appears to be a very good spot to overextend myself.

    Having said that, I come from a poker background where players seeing a great overlay proposition or plausibly weak field is the destroyer of bankrolls. Having said that, the way you play is effected and unlike poker, the top dfs players basically enter everything so the difference in competition between a 20 man $1 group vs a $50 20 man group is more or less the same but slightly more casual players in the $1.

    I’m thinking, if I am indeed correct that these are not just normal dfs but one’s where I should have a better than usual expected outcome, then what’s the bankroll commitment for that situation?

    Furthermore, if we say had a bankroll of $100 where we play $10 at a time, at which point would you stop entering single entry with large overlays?

    Let’s say there are: $50, $20, $10, $5, $2, & $1 single entry 50/50s that will only fill 75% of the way. You’ve already committed your $10 on normal matchups but see these tempting overlays right before lock.
    Do you over extend yourself? Do you commit that $88 of $90 remaining or a lesser amount? If you did commit all of it, how would you split lineups, go with best one or multiple and how would you allocate them?

    This is the stuff I think about quite often and I think my background in poker makes me unecessarily cautious.


  • Morley

    @Trappist1 said...

    What do you mean by DFS passive play ? Appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit. It is very hard to avoid playing the same people in DFS once you move up a certain stake level (mid-high buy-in). Most of the platforms have a churn rate of around 85% and doubt new people are coming into DFS in droves to find +EV situations and weaker competition. Maybe this was the case in 2012-2014 and only a few people are still around that have been playing DFS that long. I do not play Poker so do know the scene except on the superficial level.

    In dfs you don’t need to be there physically holding the controllers creating a single lineup for cash and playing it once vs 500 times is not of a difference. The only thing limiting your play is your bankroll.

    So when you play for $1 those same sharks that also play $10k are also in the $1 mix. And… It’s the same lineup quality too. It’s not like they put out lesser lineups for lower stakes. Essentially, unless in a format particularly meant to exclude sharks then the quality of the opposition changes little on stakes.

    You can find a noticeable gap in quality of opposition by bumhunting but that’s forcing you to select your games very carefully and severely limits your volume.

    In poker, you have to actively play and can only manage so many tables at once, using a laptop screen, I could optimally play 12 tables, could manage 15 but then once more than that the screen size became a problem and it would negatively impact my play. I had to therefore choose the highest stakes I could grind my edge on and leave the lower stakes alone. One any given night in dfs I have at least a few hundred contests running and I’m nowhere near the top for highway volume even on Yahoo. Again, they only thing keeping me from playing more is bankroll. If there were 1 cent mtts and h2h I’d be spamming those out by the thousands each night

  • Morley

    What I’m saying was that in poker, there were only so many tables I could feasibly play at any given time anyway, so I easily avoided certain players (even if I had a positive expectation, there were just better options) and likewise, certain players were able to easily avoid me.

    Meanwhile on Yahoo dfs, I’ve taken hundreds of dollars off just one guy this year (one dollar at a time too) because I beat him at a clip of over 80%… At one point I felt bad and stopped joining all his matches for a week or so but he kept joining mine… I guess he either doesn’t care, thinks it’s just bad luck or doesn’t notice he’s playing the same guy over and over again

  • maniacmath13

    Luckily this question has been looked at from a mathematics standpoint known as the Kelly equation:

    All you need to do is plug in your bankroll amount, the odds you get on your bet, and the probability of winning. For example, I had a $2500 bankroll and decided to enter a $300 buy in tournament with a $4,000 prize pool and 10 total entries, so $1,000 in overlay. Top 3 get paid, $2000, $1200, $800. For calculating odds I averaged the 3 payouts, so on average I’d have a profit of $1033 on a $300 bet (10.3/3 odds) with a 30% probability of winning (placed paid divided by entries). Plug it into the equation and you get the answer to the most you should risk based on the overlay and the payout percentage which in this example gives me a maximum bet of $241. So my decision to play for $300 was suboptimal, but in this case I lucked out and finished 1st for $2,000, lol.

  • mambaland

    where is this overlay you speak of

  • jgAllDay

    • 322

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #23

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Not much overlay these days except on Yahoo, Fantasy Draft and some of the less popular sports on FD and DK. If you’re going to chase overlay, do it responsibly and stay close to your current buy in level.

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