PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: August 2-5

    Where: Akron, Ohio

    Course: Firestone Country Club (South) | A par 70 playing at 7400 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Hideki Matsuyama at -16

    This is a NO CUT event

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

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  • Jeddy3

    Funny you say that because I was just looking to turn my Tiger shares into Rory.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @hautalak said...

    Hoping to scape by this week and possibly increase the BR by playing more cash this week. I can’t wait for next week though! My first chance to play with the “bigger” boys with my $150 ticket. Good thing it’s only 3 entry max. Hoping to play it similar to the Open and have some more “cashy” picks with some “bigger” names to pivot to down lower (i.e. Schauff was my differentiater). I’ll prolly ask for some opinions too but will ultimately make my own decisions.

    Here’s to a good next 2 weeks! Still have no idea who to play for this week besides some Tiger chalk. Maybe Rickie for the hell of it. And I can convince myself to get some Barnrat as well.

    From what I have read on this forum you are an excellent DFS player. Do not let the size of the ticket or the contest intimidate you. Use the same handicapping skills that you have used each and every day that got you that ticket. Do not over think your handicapping because IF you lose its much easier to lose knowing you used that handicapping system that got you to this point. IF you alter, overthink or second guess your methods and lose you will be kicking yourself over and over. Just do what you do. Good luck.

  • Cincinnatibuck

    @lfn1992 said...

    Interesting news in regards to PGA Tour Live.

    https://twitter.com/EricFisherSBJ/status/1024266310342066176

    Anyone know what this means for us PGA Tour Live subscribers?

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Jamcclea said...

    https://www.pgatour.com/news/2018/07/31/jarrod-lyle-decides-to-stop-cancer-treatment.html

    Very sad story…my dad passed from cancer way too young. Stage 4 stomach cancer at 58 years old. The fighting, operations and treatments beat the shit out of you mentally and physically. My dad was an old school bad ass Italian but nothing can conquer cancer when cancer wants you.

  • easternmh

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    New to blogging here, here’s my blog predicting the winner this week at Firestone…. any feedback would be appreciated

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/the-wgc-bridgestone-winner-will-be-2603811

  • hautalak

    @noddy said...

    Phil, JT, Sergio

    I think we all agree DO NOT FALL FOR THE SERGIO TRAP as laps the field here haha

    I might like your strategy this week of just picking guys. Where do you go wrong besides Sergio?

  • cabdziner

    @Cincinnatibuck said...

    Anyone know what this means for us PGA Tour Live subscribers?

    https://www.pgatour.com/company/2018/07/31/pga-tour-live-nbc-sports-group-ott-partnership.html

  • hbomb57

    Has anybody seen on tv or otherwise the course conditions, especially the rough with the lack of rain that most of the country has had. Or does Firestone keep those areas well watered also.

  • hautalak

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    From what I have read on this forum you are an excellent DFS player. Do not let the size of the ticket or the contest intimidate you. Use the same handicapping skills that you have used each and every day that got you that ticket. Do not over think your handicapping because IF you lose its much easier to lose knowing you used that handicapping system that got you to this point. IF you alter, overthink or second guess your methods and lose you will be kicking yourself over and over. Just do what you do. Good luck.

    Appreciated the kind words, so thank you. You also did catch me on my best PGA stretch this year but I like to think I know what I’m doing.

    I’m still gonna be running the same system I’ve been and see where that gets me. Usually it comes down to the last 1 or 2 non-chalky guys I pick. Shouldn’t be any different next week. Good luck to you as well!

  • Cincinnatibuck

    @cabdziner said...

    https://www.pgatour.com/company/2018/07/31/pga-tour-live-nbc-sports-group-ott-partnership.html

    Will finally be able to watch on the one left over Roku in my house.

  • ttucowboy84

    • 415

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    No DJ for me this week. He was obviously great for me last week, but passing this week. Reason for fading is his ownership will be inflated after the win last week and I couldn’t build a lineup I liked with him in it.

    All aboard Finau and Molinari. Molinari was good to me at The Open and I see no reason not to continue riding him. As far as Finau, he burned people last week. Add-in no course history and that makes him a great tournament play, especially considering his talent @ an $8K price (plus, he’s fun to root for).

    I’ve never played a no cut event so I’m taking BIF’s lead and keeping it light this week (currently @ 3 $5s). Definitely seems like more of a crapshoot so I’m just playing guys I like and letting it ride.

  • timusbr

    @nicholasmarsh said...

    Straight bets not a bad idea. I’m scaling back to single-bullet. The MME has polluted my selection strategy even though I always make a “main” LU first. The MME is fun, but negative ROI for me

    I assume MME is max multi enter. sorry I had to give it some thought.
    its a tough game. keep your LU’s spread out and hope to get a winner. My experience is spread out the player pool and your spreading out the MC’s. I gamble, I try to take my 1 LU and make 20. Keeping a very tight LU. Unfortunately if you MC, your dead, and hope for a blip on the EKG to save some seed money.
    This might sound stupid but I believe in streaks. Baccarat is my game of choice in a casino. Can anyone explain streaks?? I cant. Can Hautalak explain his last 2 weeks? I doubt it. What about Ketter7, the poor guy was killing it on the west coast swing and now he doesn’t even want to comment here. Not winning for 4 weeks in a row…SUCKS, but its a streak. All streaks come to an end. The real game is money management against DK. They keep finding ways to separate you and your bankroll. Changing how you choose your LU, the process should stay the same. Changing your entry strategy is your battle with DK. I dont even recognize my losing strategy very quickly. DK can be a ball buster.

  • Felixxberg

    • 933

      RG Overall Ranking

    @easternmh said...

    New to blogging here, here’s my blog predicting the winner this week at Firestone…. any feedback would be appreciated

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/the-wgc-bridgestone-winner-will-be-2603811

    I like your different approach! You use stats that we don’t normally look at based on past winners. I hope you’re not right though since I don’t have any DJ in my 3 lineups. Your blog is better suited for betting than for DFS, since you only pick a winner and you don’t look at the golfers’ “price”.

  • dangasin

    Tiger woods coming in with a big win this week

  • byo34

    Need me some tee times! Other than the already released featured groups.

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    Can we just skip this event and move to the PGA ? Besides being a small field and a no-cut event, I don’t even like this Firestone CC golf course. Not sure if it’s because Tiger usually ran away with the tournies here and that’s why I don’t like it but I’m happy that I have Club Championship this weekend and probably won’t have time to watch much.

    and you get to play #beattimusbr
    I finalized my LU’s (40 LU’s of which I split them 20 and 20, and I have 3 as my max3 and My 1 H2H)
    Got that Tuesday freshly selected feel.
    I am going to crush it and crush all those that have the audacity to accept my challenge.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @ttucowboy84 said...

    No DJ for me this week. He was obviously great for me last week, but passing this week. Reason for fading is his ownership will be inflated after the win last week and I couldn’t build a lineup I liked with him in it.

    All aboard Finau and Molinari. Molinari was good to me at The Open and I see no reason not to continue riding him. As far as Finau, he burned people last week. Add-in no course history and that makes him a great tournament play, especially considering his talent @ an $8K price (plus, he’s fun to root for).

    I’ve never played a no cut event so I’m taking BIF’s lead and keeping it light this week (currently @ 3 $5s). Definitely seems like more of a crapshoot so I’m just playing guys I like and letting it ride.

    Don’t be surprised when Molinari and Finau are owned at a higher percentage than DJ.

  • BIF

    @Felixxberg said...

    If he got 130 (!!) of them with $750-$800, there’s only a few left for the rest of us!

    That was for The Open

    I only have 22 so far for PGA (we’ve only had 2 weeks so far plus this week) and I nicely left all of them for you guys in 4-day contests last weekend as I drew a blank.

  • timusbr

    @Cincinnatibuck said...

    Anyone know what this means for us PGA Tour Live subscribers?

    I assume, less money for us

  • byo34

    @byo34 said...

    Need me some tee times! Other than the already released featured groups.

    And they are up!

  • ttucowboy84

    • 415

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Cooper08 said...

    Don’t be surprised when Molinari and Finau are owned at a higher percentage than DJ.

    Yeah, that’s definitely possible. I guess I’ll just hope I can differentiate enough with the other 4 spots. I’ll gobble up all the Molinari and Finau chalk there is.

    I ate HV3 (had 85%) and DJ (had 75%) chalk last week and it worked out fine. It could’ve easily burned me last week, but I think ultimately having a chalky option or two isn’t bad as long as you like your overall lineup. I played around with DJ in a lineup build and couldn’t come up with a lineup I liked so decided to fade.

  • kps3205s

    @byo34 said...

    Need me some tee times! Other than the already released featured groups.

    https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/wgc-bridgestone-invitational/tee-times.html

  • hautalak

    @timusbr said...

    Can Hautalak explain his last 2 weeks? I doubt it.

    LOL I could try and give some BS answer but just doing the same damn thing in a refined way. Like I said the Open came down to the last pick and last week I was lucky CH played into it. I mean I had Wheatcroft and Swafford on my lineup.

    RF is trending up for me though regardless of course, well not quite regardless but playing who’s hot (Molinari) has helped.

  • Wander_Bread

    @Jamcclea said...

    https://www.pgatour.com/news/2018/07/31/jarrod-lyle-decides-to-stop-cancer-treatment.html

    Horrible always liked that guy and have followed his story on his instagram page. Seemed to be doing okay up until about a two months ago after a large transplant

  • Felixxberg

    • 933

      RG Overall Ranking

    @timusbr said...

    I assume MME is max multi enter. sorry I had to give it some thought.

    I’ll give some too!

    I max entered NHL contests almost every night when I was still in college (2 years ago). At that time, it meant $450 a night (150 x $3), and then $600 a night (150 x $4). The worst I have lost in a night is about 2/3 of my investment, and it didn’t happen too often. I had a lot of +$1K nights that made up for those losses and ultimately, I had a long term ROI of about 5% (so about 20% less the 15% rake that DK takes) on back to back seasons. This season, low buy in contests were locked at 20-max, and I have a full time job anyway, so I don’t have time to build 150 lineups a night. I didn’t calculate how much I lost during the playoffs, but right after the season, I had an ROI of less than 1%.

    I think the top payout structures remove the advantage of max entering. I looked at stats on ResultsDB for over a week this season in NHL, and realized that max enterers (people who enter 75% or more than what is allowed) of large GPPs (where you are allowed to enter 150-ish lineups) dominate the top 50 but not the top 10, if you look at the prorata of their entries vs the rest of the people’s entries.

    The biggest advantage of max entering is to cover variance as much as possible. In sports like hockey, you get a big advantage by spreading and covering as many lines as possible. I assume the same applies to many sports.

    Finally, never forget that sometimes, you only need one good night to make up for a few weeks of losing. That’s what the top payouts do. You only need one large GPP win and you’re set for a long time.

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