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  • whodat2

    When: July 30 – August 2

    Where: Memphis, TN

    Course: TPC Southwind | A Par 70 playing at 7244 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Big Ole Broogsy Gepka at -16

    Last Year’s Cut: No Cut Event

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Happy Meal Restart Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    Winner: JT
    Fade: Brooks and DJ
    Sleepers: Reavie and Streelman

  • me_mike84

    probably a bit late for this question….but, i didn’t leave much salary on the table this week. is playing the ownership game or the salary cap the more optimal play for a no cut event?

    bad habit of questioning myself shortly before tournaments begin lol

  • Getty33

    @depalma13 said...

    Winner:

    I agree as a general statement, but does this refer to a particular golfer? Horsemeat perhaps?

  • RudyPujols

    @me_mike84 said...

    probably a bit late for this question….but, i didn’t leave much salary on the table this week. is playing the ownership game or the salary cap the more optimal play for a no cut event?

    bad habit of questioning myself shortly before tournaments begin lol

    Pretty sure someone (BrianVT perhaps?) posted the winners of the past 6 or 8 large GPP WGC No-cut events. Almost all of them used near-max salary. Total ownership seemed to be around 70-85% (so not uber contrarian or uber chalky). And almost all of them had at least 1 and sometimes 2 or 3 scrub price guys. Of course, the max salary thing might not mean a whole lot if 90%+ of the field used near-max.

  • BrianVT

    Yea, Rudy hit it, and that was my reason for sharing that data. I’d say you can handle contrarian by keeping your aggregate ownership low. Use most of your salary because there’s a strong price/value relationship this week.

  • ValuableTrader

    Come on golf…

  • Ricardo5346

    Are we liking Christian B or Dr. Watson better?

  • bigez952

    @RudyPujols said...

    Pretty sure someone (BrianVT perhaps?) posted the winners of the past 6 or 8 large GPP WGC No-cut events. Almost all of them used near-max salary. Total ownership seemed to be around 70-85% (so not uber contrarian or uber chalky). And almost all of them had at least 1 and sometimes 2 or 3 scrub price guys. Of course, the max salary thing might not mean a whole lot if 90%+ of the field used near-max.

    The “almost all of them used max salary” can be kind of misleading as 90%+ of all entries in a given contest use almost all of the salary so if you analyzing winners it is expected that most of the salary will be used. A better metric would be to look at the true optimal lineups and if those always land on near max salary it would saw something. Like last week the true optimal were in the $45,000 range but the GPP winners used near the max salary as that’s just what people do when they enter lineups. So I wouldn’t take away from last week that you had to use close to max salary to win even thought pretty much all the winners did so.

  • me_mike84

    @RudyPujols said...

    Pretty sure someone (BrianVT perhaps?) posted the winners of the past 6 or 8 large GPP WGC No-cut events. Almost all of them used near-max salary. Total ownership seemed to be around 70-85% (so not uber contrarian or uber chalky). And almost all of them had at least 1 and sometimes 2 or 3 scrub price guys. Of course, the max salary thing might not mean a whole lot if 90%+ of the field used near-max.

    really appreciate that. so maybe i’ll just leave my lineup as is lol (i have $300 remaining salary)

    i’m pretty satisfied as i am every week until my first few golfers out of the gate open with bogies lol

    again, thanks to you both for the info!

  • MGoHarbaugh

    Come on golf

  • Gtzerphy

  • Getty33

  • Money0227

    @ValuableTrader said...

    Come on golf…

    Are you in that much of a hurry to go on tilt and them move on to next week???

    Me too…

  • tristanwolf

    @BrianVT said...

    Winner: JT
    Fade: Brooks and DJ
    Sleepers: Reavie and Streelman

    pretty close
    rory
    brooks dj
    streelman

  • monarch

    @Ricardo5346 said...

    Are we liking Christian B or Dr. Watson better?

    I really like both but Bubba more. He scores really well…people don’t like to play him and he excels at the long par fours.

  • tristanwolf

  • shadowchap1978

    This course isn’t that much of a birdie fest if I remember correctly, I could be wrong given the soft conditions…I’m going with guys who avoid bogey’s the best, hoping it pays off. JT to win in a playoff over WEBB. Fade RORY and Bison(First time since the restart they aren’t in my pool. Deep sleeper= Bucket Hat Joel Dahmen :)

  • BrianVT

    @bigez952 said...

    Like last week the true optimal were in the $45,000 range but the GPP winners used near the max salary as that’s just what people do when they enter lineups

    This happens a lot, but who is going to play just $45k lineups thinking “I’ll probably nail the optimal because I’m only using $45k?” That would be an overall losing strategy, IMO. The question is whether you should play like $49k – $49.5k to be different than everyone playing $49.8k – $50k, and the answer is that there’s no need for that to be your way of being contrarian if you instead take a look at ownership projections and try to keep a fairly low aggregate ownership while using most of your salary. That has been successful in these types of events. If you’re going up into the 90%s and 100%s, you’re just going to have trouble competing for the top winnings.

  • RudyPujols

    Anybody have faith in Sungjae to bounce back this week? Form is putrid. Anybody know ownership projections on him?

  • Arbond

    Faith? No. Could it happen? Maybe, but I won’t be on him when it does. I’ll have to see it happen, first.

  • ifthethunder

    @monarch said...

    I really like both but Bubba more. He scores really well…people don’t like to play him and he excels at the long par fours.

    People don’t like to play Bubba lately because he misses so many cuts. But that’s not a problem this week. So I’ll make a Bubba lineup.

    Also, I haven’t needed (or wanted) to go in the low 6,000 range much. But why not this week? Tom Lewis is 6,200, Mackenzie Hughes is 6,400 (just for examples).
    ~

  • BIF

    @shadowchap1978 said...

    This course isn’t that much of a birdie fest if I remember correctly, I could be wrong given the soft conditions…I’m going with guys who avoid bogey’s the best, hoping it pays off. JT to win in a playoff over WEBB. Fade RORY and Bison(First time since the restart they aren’t in my pool. Deep sleeper= Bucket Hat Joel Dahmen :)

    Rory should never be faded in soft conditions; the guy is a fly it at the pin and stick it guy – all of his major wins have come on softer courses. A soft Ocean Course at the PGA – Even his Open Championship was on very non-normal conditions.

  • JIB7

    @RudyPujols said...

    Anybody have faith in Sungjae to bounce back this week? Form is putrid. Anybody know ownership projections on him?

    I play a single bullet each week. He’s in my lineup. Disclaimer: I had 5/6 MC last week.

  • BIF

    @BrianVT said...

    This happens a lot, but who is going to play just $45k lineups thinking “I’ll probably nail the optimal because I’m only using $45k?” That would be an overall losing strategy, IMO. The question is whether you should play like $49k – $49.5k to be different than everyone playing $49.8k – $50k, and the answer is that there’s no need for that to be your way of being contrarian if you instead take a look at ownership projections and try to keep a fairly low aggregate ownership while using most of your salary. That has been successful in these types of events. If you’re going up into the 90%s and 100%s, you’re just going to have trouble competing for the top winnings.

    Salary spent doesn’t matter

    In most GPPs the winner is going to have a $49,700-$50K lineup because that is what about 92% of entries have spent.

    I often make a few where I spend around $48K and they rarely end up being the best one but sometimes it’s in my top 10%

    Agree – trying to pick optimal is useless as there as gazillion lineup combos that spend $45-$48K where that number shrinks significantly if you are trying to spend just $49,500 to $50K.

    Bottom line, if you like 6 guys, play them and who cares if they cost $45K or $50K as both have the same chance of being optimal

  • BIF

    I opened up the Barracuda leaderboard as I have a few guys there in a season long pool and immediately cursed at Sam Burns for being +4 thru 3 holes just long enough until I realized he was T1 and + numbers are good this week.

    2 birds in first 3 holes for +4 points !!

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