PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: February 21-24

    Where: Mexico City, Mexico

    Course: Club De Golf Chapultepec | A par 71 playing at 7276 yards at an altitude of 7382 feet

    Last Year’s Winner: Phil Mickelson at -16

    Last Year’s Cut: This is a No Cut event with a limited field

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | NBC

    Shot-Tracker: Yes

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mtdurham

    so while we’re waiitng for the tournament to start let me tell you a little sstory about a Betting platform in the early 2000’s called Tradesports (later i believe purchased by Intrade)…. these exchanges are still popular in europe but not in America because htey are good for the consumer not the website

    It operated like a Trading Exchange where you buy/sell shares in a team, golfer, politician, stock market index, weather, etc….

    All shares traded between the value of $0.10 and $9.90… and at expiry they would either be worth $0.00 (loss) or $10.00(win) per share

    Let’s use this tournament for example…

    Justin Thomas the favorite might be on the market with a Bid of $1.00 and an Ask of $1.10……. So you could buy 100 shares for $110 that would be worht $1,000 if he wins the tournament ($890 profit) or you could sell short 100 shares by putting up $900 to win $100 if he lost the tournament.

    As you can see the odds for us the bettor were MUCH better because of the short selling option instead of just having to take whatever the sportsbook offered we were taking wahtever other bettors offered…

    So you could log on and Sell Short JT, DJ, & Spieth for say $1.00, $0.80, and $0.40…. but instead of having to post $900 + $920 + $960 = $2,780…

    It would factor in the MAXIMUM you could lose on the event… which in this case was $760… because if Speith wins you lose $960 , but collect $80 off the DJ loss , and $100 off the JT loss….

    well you can see how you could lever yourself to the gills on this stuff….. i would stake out my positions by continutally trying to barely undercut the market maker (as you only paid trading commisions if you ‘hit the bid or ask’ and not if you in fact posted bid/asks that were “hit” by others)

    It was great fun and highly profitable if you were able to navigate your positions….. anyway theyremained active throughtout the tournamnet with market makers and other traders providing liquiddity if you wanted to buy/sell positions on other golfers….

    they also usually only posted like 40 golfers and the rest were represented by the “field” which gave that position a lot of liquidity as the tournament went on…

    i dream of hte day sports gambling is made legal and these betting exchanges return to America… i know i’ll no longer be able to profit as a market maker…but dang those things were fun…

    You’d see guys like Phil Mickelson going off at 7:1 on your sportsbook…. then look at the trading exchanges and see you could get 11:1 there….. the juice vegas charges on golf is beyond reason and it’s a shame because it’d be a fun sport to bet on if you could acquire reassonable odds for golfers

  • mtdurham

    @badtrip said...

    Nah, If he ends up getting 4th or fifth at his price he’s the nuts. I don’t think a $7100 guy is going to cause you to lose all your money (less WD).

    i dont dislike him… it just sucks for your viewing experience if he doessnt get off to a good start and you know your dead across all lineups

  • BIF

    @noddy said...

    sent you a PM

    Replied

  • gunthie176

    @mtdurham said...

    i dream of hte day sports gambling is made legal and these betting exchanges return to America… i know i’ll no longer be able to profit as a market maker…but dang those things were fun…

    predictit is a similar site for politics that is open in America last I checked, but yes would be great for sports too. As a bigggggg fan of options trading this would be great.

  • Wander_Bread

    @mtdurham said...

    so while we’re waiitng for the tournament to start let me tell you a little sstory about a Betting platform in the early 2000’s called Tradesports (later i believe purchased by Intrade)…. these exchanges are still popular in europe but not in America because htey are good for the consumer not the website

    How old are you if you don’t mind me asking?

    I don’t think we ever see a true betting exchange in America even if all states legalize. Took much money for the big companies to make in traditional sportsbooks.

  • gunthie176

    @Wander_Bread said...

    How old are you if you don’t mind me asking?

    I don’t think we ever see a true betting exchange in America even if all states legalize. Took much money for the big companies to make in traditional sportsbooks.

    definitely takes money out of the books pocket, but whomever set up the platform would have zero risk unlike a traditional book

  • BIF

    Re/ Stock/Sports Market.

    Anybody seen this ?
    https://www.allsportsmarket.com/EN/Default.aspx?clickid=&referid=&affid=

    Saw this back in 2014 when ex NhL’er Bernie Nichols was promoting it – haven’t stayed up to day but it is still in operation from what I see.

  • qatman

    @gunthie176 said...

    definitely takes money out of the books pocket, but whomever set up the platform would have zero risk unlike a traditional book

    A regulated exchange would seem to be ideal for cautious state governments. They would get their guaranteed cut based on the spread. There would be no bookies cutting players off or limiting them etc. I hope that at least one state follows this model (preferably California since that would benefit me) but not holding my breath.

    I remember Intertops back in the day also allowing short selling, although in that case they booked all the action. In particular there was a home run derby where you could get guaranteed profit by short-selling everyone, and as mtdurham said they credited you for the negative risk. So I kept betting No on everyone, which increased available funds, which allowed more No bets. Ultimately I think I picked a couple of guys I thought might win and rearranged so it was like 0 risk to win 500 or something on each. Of course they lost. But there were many opportunities back then.

  • Pbasniper

    I did it guys!! Didn’t tinker with anything for over an hour, what a feeling!

  • Dunzor

    Good luck everyone, let’s get this party started. Looks like we got slightly reduced rake in the 444 since it didn’t fill which is nice. Hope we got some big forum scores come Sunday!

  • mtdurham

    @Wander_Bread said...

    How old are you if you don’t mind me asking?

    I don’t think we ever see a true betting exchange in America even if all states legalize. Took much money for the big companies to make in traditional sportsbooks.

    36 and a half but i usually just tell the women 36

  • eperson911

    Wow, Bjerregaard and Willet only about 5% in the $8 5 max. With as much as I have seen them touted, I thought that would be higher.

  • mtdurham

    @qatman said...

    A regulated exchange would seem to be ideal for cautious state governments. They would get their guaranteed cut based on the spread. There would be no bookies cutting players off or limiting them etc. I hope that at least one state follows this model (preferably California since that would benefit me) but not holding my breath.

    I remember Intertops back in the day also allowing short selling, although in that case they booked all the action. In particular there was a home run derby where you could get guaranteed profit by short-selling everyone, and as mtdurham said they credited you for the negative risk. So I kept betting No on everyone, which increased available funds, which allowed more No bets. Ultimately I think I picked a couple of guys I thought might win and rearranged so it was like 0 risk to win 500 or something on each. Of course they lost. But there were many opportunities back then.

    yes i would sell EVERYONE….. and in certain events like the Hockey Olympics…everyone was just buying the crap out of canada and i couldnt “balance” the action out but once Canada tanked… (2004 maybe? idk not a big olympic fan) i made out huge…but obv it could have gone the other way…

    but for the most part the goal was to short sell everything…. sometimes that was tough as people like Serena, Tiger Woods, etc would draw unreal action comparatively… but even still you knew you were selling htem at prices that were great for you to hold over the long run if you could stay solvent

  • Dunzor

    For anyone who doesn’t remember last year, guys were trying to drive the green on #1 & 2 last year so those are both great scoring holes along with the par 5s

  • mtdurham

    okay back to golf…here’s how i went this week but only played $129 worth of lineups

    78% Leishman
    69% Mickelson
    47% Thomas
    41% Willett
    38% Horschel
    28% Reed
    22% Noren
    19% Johson
    19% Woodland
    19% Wise
    19% Tong-Li
    19% Schauffele
    16% Kuchar
    16% Simpson
    13% Casey
    13% Garcia
    13% Rai
    13% Bjerregard
    13% Imahira
    13% Kizzire
    9% Na
    9% Smith
    9% DeChambeau
    9% Luiten
    6% Bjork
    6% Finau
    3% Grillo
    3% Kisner
    3% Cabrera Bello

  • Dewoc19

    Best way to not tinker is to be sick with the flu, you literally dont even care what your lineups look like

  • shadowchap1978

    100 % Rory/Rahm/Fleetwood for me on Yahoo. Stars and Somewhat scrubs for me. What could go wrong?

  • klyon28

    Noren 16% owned in the happy meal. Wow. I went with him because I thought he might be low owned sleeper

  • mtdurham

    @gunthie176 said...

    definitely takes money out of the books pocket, but whomever set up the platform would have zero risk unlike a traditional book

    yes the trading commission changed a few times but mainly i remember it being 4 cents per share….but you only paid that commission if you hit the bid/ask…not if you posted a limmit order that got hit by another bidder…..

    and also you got dinged with 4 cents on the way out at expiry…. but that iss small potatos compared to normal sports vigorish…. like on an even money bet you were risking $5.04 to win $5.00 instead of $5.50 to win $5.00

    and you could avoid most (sometimes all) of that by simply getting out before expiry and placing limit orders

  • qatman

    Grace at 3.6%, Koepka at 6.5%, and Hatton at 14.0% in the Mayonnaise Open will probably determine my fate this week.

  • klyon28

    Loving my ownerships in the 50k birdie though. Tiger highest owned at 16%. Everyone else under 10% including Koepka and Bubba

  • noddy

    Bjork starts off with a birdie…this is my week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Dunzor

    Reavie starting strong with the 3 jack from nine feet

  • mtdurham

    Dunzor, what’s in the $444 box this week?

    Bif, what’s the nut cash lineup?

    i’ve got a separate $100 h2h going on yahoo against a friend with

    JT, Leishman, Phil, Sergio, CH3
    vs
    Rahm, Casey, Woodland, Fleetwood, Grillo

    (we both played hideki)

    i like it!

  • manoffewwords

    Every ACE. Edit Has to be wrong par 4. Hate ST

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