STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • monaco712

    This topic is subjective but I m curious what people think. What percentage of
    being successful in DFS is 1. statistical analysis and research 2. instinct and
    intuition 3. strategy and systems 4. luck

  • Makisupa

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2014 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2013 StarStreet NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2014 StarStreet MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @escot4 said...

    Over a small sample size like a day or a week, yes, luck is a larger factor… but since we’re talking about being successful in DFS overall, the luck factor decreases a ton. Basically, the larger the sample size of somebody’s DFS experience, the more likely luck will “even out” with everybody else’s luck over the long term.

    Define long term. The world’s best NFL player could have a losing season extremely easily. Even in the daily games, it takes many seasons to approach the long run. NFL…you’ll likely never see the long run. As the games get harder, it also gets harder to find the long run. Luck is a massive factor.

  • kaetorade

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSBBC Finalist

    @Makisupa said...

    Define long term. The world’s best NFL player could have a losing season extremely easily. Even in the daily games, it takes many seasons to approach the long run. NFL…you’ll likely never see the long run. As the games get harder, it also gets harder to find the long run. Luck is a massive factor.

    Do you feel this strongly about the luck factor in cash games?

  • bigloser11

    LUCK.

    Game knowledge helps.

    But there is no predictor on injury, weather conditions etc.

  • Makisupa

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2014 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2013 StarStreet NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2014 StarStreet MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @kaetorade said...

    Do you feel this strongly about the luck factor in cash games?

    It’s obviously much bigger in GPPs, but it’s big in cash games too. Put out good teams and then pray.

  • bigloser11

    Luck more than skill. I’m old and do this for fun. Won a few very small gpps. The other night I thought I would come out
    1st in an arcade game, had 250 + pts. w/ 20 innings to go. One hitter gets hurt and another had only 2 plate appearances.
    Won 50 cents on a 25 cent entry.
    I read some alleged experts claiming algorithms, numbers resonate etc. Pure bunk.
    The big guy here that makes the big $$ spends several hours/ day studying and pours rivers of $$ into it.Good for him and
    anyone w/ that kind of drive.

  • Mondayred

    What is +ev

  • kps3205s

    @Mondayred said...

    What is +ev

    Positive Expected Value.

    A link that goes into a little detail. Hope this helps.

    https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/overlay-and-ev-209096

  • mark83vt

    10% analysis
    10% intuition
    10% systems
    70% luck

    The first 3 are what lead the “pro” players to have a slight edge

  • LegiaWwa

    Time. Plenty of free time to research and enter lineups.

  • monaco712

    I hope its not 70% luck you would like to think being a game of skill it would be under 50%.

    49% luck/variance
    29% research/analysis
    17% instinct/art
    5% systems /methods

    This is over the long term of course anything can happen
    on any single day.

  • BIF

    @escot4 said...

    I definitely don’t speak for all pros, but watching the games is a huge factor for me. It may matter more for certain sports than others. Personally, I think it’s very important for NFL. Many of the NFL stats have unreliable sample sizes for quite a bit of the year, so any time you can bring in more data (i.e. what you see) it can only help.

    Totally agree
    I watch a ton of games and sometimes re-watch for tendencies and to see who is on the field in key situations. If I can uncover a guy who received 0-1 targets in a given week by was on the field and running routes a bunch of times; he may be primed to see possibly 5-7 targets the next week out of the blue at <2% ownership. Just because he didn’t get a pass thrown to him doesn’t necessarily mean we should give up on a guy – the QB may not have seen him come Open but after the Tuesday film session, the coaches will know !!

    Also understanding the game and the impact of what role a backup may truly play if the guy ahead of him is injured. Also understanding the importance and impact of OL/DL/LB injuries rhat may seem meaningless often play a huge role. For example, no way do the Rams have the success they did versus the Cowboys this week if Sean Lee is patrolling the middle for Dallas. Given that it ended up a 1 score game, I’d go as far as saying Dallas wins if Lee plays.

  • monaco712

    @BIF said...

    I watch a ton of games and sometimes re-watch for tendencies and to see who is on the field in key situations. I

    Another good reason to watch games is to get analysis from the
    commentators who follow the teams very closely.
    And you definitely get a feel for the players beyond the stats.

  • smalhot1

    after becoming a semi-pro grinder after 1 year and profiting 20k, I can tell you its

    60% volume
    40% luck

    Volume is the most important thing by far, theres no such thing as skill lol, are you joking? Do you know how easy it is too pick a good gpp lineup? I can’t believe I read people researching for “hours” , wtf are you researching hours for? I’d hop off work with 30 minutes till 7 pm and bang off juicy lines.

    For nba all you do is, does this guy have upside? yes. fast paced game? yes bad defense? yes any injuries? yes/no. Than you just pick 8 guys that fit any donkey with a half a brain can do that. Most people have figured it out, yes picking nikola jokic vs the nets is a good play , its not that freaking hard.

    All you need is volume and to be semi-contrarian with some easy plays.

    But I’m pretty much done with dfs anyways, I’d rather work hard at my job/perform better and make more money that way it comes out to be the exact same $. The number of maxing nerds has increased, the amount of information has increased, rake has increased there’s no point anymore trust me.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    ^
    I’m not arguing that you’re wrong, but it does seem like you’re not giving yourself enough credit.

    I’m assuming you must be very intelligent, in which case, what may seem obvious to you may not be the case for the majority.
    It’s no different than school as kids – there’s the kid who studies for days just to get a passing grade, and someone else that only skims the notes 5 minutes before and gets an A.

    Point is, I think intelligence plays the biggest factor. And even if you still wanted to argue it’s luck in your favor, i’d argue for intelligence, in so much that you were smart enough to figure out how to game the system and what worked for you (the volume stuff) and now your smart enough to pull back because you can see the negative factors impacting profitability.

    Trust me, all of these things are not obvious to everyone putting their money in nightly.

  • smalhot1

    If your arguing the fact that I realized volume is the most important aspect which in turns relates to skill, than I agree with you.

    People really really really really really really need to realize the amount of players maxing is growing at an IMMENSE rate. Even from last year, you would blatantly notice the 150 entry grinders. Now I don’t even know half of these guys anymore there just randoms. I think last year was really the last year to be profitable anymore in NBA, its pretty much over its too over saturated with people who have figured it out. You have no idea how much this hurts profit in the long run, it could make or break your year and it has nothing to do with if your bad or not.

    Every slate all I did was subscribe to one of the lineup maker sites:

    Go through every player, X any bad play so they are not in my lines. With this subset max it out, and than pray. Each player should be vs. bad defense, have high upside due to their skill or injury, maybe have some story line(for example a revenge game, scoring 0 points in the last game(trust me this works look at derozans lines after bageling), kemba at home(Lol)), and be in a decently paced game.

    With this strategy you will hit atleast once, (2-3 times if your a lucky bastard) in the top 3 and make cash.

    But too many people do this now, why would you fight yourself these days it makes no sense. Its just like the warriors/cavs. You know both of them will make the finals each year easy. But imagine there are like 20 more teams with equal amount of skills warriors/cavs. Would you still bet on warrior/cavs making finals. no. The fact that i’m even posting on a site like this with like-minded people proves the decrease in profitability. This site shouldn’t even exist for it to profitable.

    The horrible part of DFS is the thrill of that big $50K for first sign they put up, its turning into a cancer and more people will lose their money due to rake in the long run. There is so such thing as “the best dfs player in the world” its capped, this isn’t chess.

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    If your arguing the fact that I realized volume is the most important aspect which in turns relates to skill, than I agree with you.

    People really really really really really really need to realize the amount of players maxing is growing at an IMMENSE rate. Even from last year, you would blatantly notice the 150 entry grinders. Now I don’t even know half of these guys anymore there just randoms. I think last year was really the last year to be profitable anymore in NBA, its pretty much over its too over saturated with people who have figured it out. You have no idea how much this hurts profit in the long run, it could make or break your year and it has nothing to do with if your bad or not.

    Every slate all I did was subscribe to one of the lineup maker sites:

    Go through every player, X any bad play so they are not in my lines. With this subset max it out, and than pray. Each player should be vs. bad defense, have high upside due to their skill or injury, maybe have some story line(for example a revenge game, scoring 0 points in the last game(trust me this works look at derozans lines after bageling), kemba at home(Lol)), and be in a decently paced game.

    With this strategy you will hit atleast once, (2-3 times if your a lucky bastard) in the top 3 and make cash.

    But too many people do this now, why would you fight yourself these days it makes no sense. Its just like the warriors/cavs. You know both of them will make the finals each year easy. But imagine there are like 20 more teams with equal amount of skills warriors/cavs. Would you still bet on warrior/cavs making finals. no. The fact that i’m even posting on a site like this with like-minded people proves the decrease in profitability. This site shouldn’t even exist for it to profitable.

    The horrible part of DFS is the thrill of that big $50K for first sign they put up, its turning into a cancer and more people will lose their money due to rake in the long run. There is so such thing as “the best dfs player in the world” its capped, this isn’t chess.

    If you think all you need to do is max out to be profitable why don’t you just max the quarter arcade every night. I bet you still wouldn’t be profitable. Nothing to do with volume….

  • smalhot1

    Your missing my point i’m saying even volume doesn’t help anymore. And of course volume has to make sense in context, why would it help for the quarter games anyway.

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    Your missing my point i’m saying even volume doesn’t help anymore.

    In your previous post you said it was “60% volume 40% luck” and you said “volume is the most important thing by far, theres no such thing as skill lol, are you joking?”

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    Volume is the most important thing by far, theres no such thing as skill lol, are you joking? Do you know how easy it is too pick a good gpp lineup? I can’t believe I read people researching for “hours” , wtf are you researching hours for? I’d hop off work with 30 minutes till 7 pm and bang off juicy lines.

    You said it yourself…

  • smalhot1

    Read my next post I said that too many people do this now its a waste.

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    Read my next post I said that too many people do this now its a waste.

    No volume was never important. That’s my point. Do you have a better chance to win a GPP with more entries? Yes.

    Is your ROI going to be higher with more entries? Yes in some but no in others. Volume doesn’t really help with ROI.

  • smalhot1

    You aren’t even taking what I said into context properly, if volume doesn’t matter at all. Why doesn’t saahil just play one entry a night. I’m trying to say volume is one of the most important things to be successful, but due to the nature of more people maxing out its not even that helpful anymore.

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    You aren’t even taking what I said into context properly, if volume doesn’t matter at all. Why doesn’t saahil just play one entry a night. I’m trying to say volume is one of the most important things to be successful, but due to the nature of more people maxing out its not even that helpful anymore.

    You made my point for me when you brought up Saahil. Actually Saahil barely even plays DK anymore. Not even 1 entry. He pretty much has quit DK for good.

    Do you know why? Because he was losing money. He quit because he wasn’t good enough. It has nothing to do with volume.

    If anything if he played less volume on DK he would have lost money more slowly and he wouldn’t have quit yet.

  • smalhot1

    Lol, back to my original point to the 0% skill part…………..

    Saahil was never good enough, he got lucky and I also got lucky, unlike every other dfs player on this site I can admit it. But to improve those odds all he did was add more volume(and to reiterate he played in a point of time where volume had a very large advantage). There was a point in time he was probably crushing DK, now he probably thinks he can only crush FD but he’ll find out soon enough, he can’t.

    There are people who win the lottery multiple times. Thats saahilsud, nothing against him im happy hes won tons of money.

  • NoLimits0

    @smalhot1 said...

    Lol, back to my original point to the 0% skill part…………..

    Saahil was never good enough, he got lucky and I also got lucky, unlike every other dfs player on this site I can admit it. But to improve those odds all he did was add more volume(and to reiterate he played in a point of time where volume had a very large advantage). There was a point in time he was probably crushing DK, now he probably thinks he can only crush FD but he’ll find out soon enough, he can’t.

    There are people who win the lottery multiple times. Thats saahilsud, nothing against him im happy hes won tons of money.

    Bro you got it all twisted. Saahil had to quit because despite max entering he was losing money. The other max entry guys like Awesomo and youdacao haven’t quit because they are more skilled.

    The fact that me, you, and Saahil suck is because we don’t have as much skill as Awesomeo and youdacao….how hard is it to understand that. Stop making it out to be it’s 100% luck. If you lose look yourself in the mirror you’ll see it.

    Saahil and Condia prove it’s a skill game not a volume game….so do me and you.

    Btw Saahils running almost a scam with his rotoql website by marketing himself as the worlds #1 player when that’s not even true anymore and he’s lost a ton of money this year.

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