NBA FORUM

Comments

  • cleanslate

    I’m not claiming to know the answer to this, but I would like to start a discussion on it. With DK’s recent NBA pricing being tight to the point of stupid (i.e., 6.8k for guys like G. Hernangomez), I really don’t personally understand their reasoning for doing this.

    My opinion is that super “tight” pricing does the following:

    (1) Discourages casual players from playing heavier volume or from playing at all.

    (2) Narrows the player pool down quite a bit as a lot of guys are priced up to the point of being unplayable for most people that aren’t doing a ton of lineups.

    In particular, narrowing the player pool by having pricing that discourages using a lot of active/healthy players, this actually reduces lineup variance. The more players that are viable to be used on a given night, the more variance there should be in roster construction, at least in theory. Tighter pricing seems to discourage roster variance quite a bit, and given how large the GPP tournament fields are on a regular basis now, limiting overall roster variance seems, again, counter-intuitive.

    I don’t get on these boards much anymore, but I would like to get a discussion going on this topic in hopes that the sites actually pay attention to the communities feedback.

    As a final point, isn’t DFS supposed to be fun as much as if not more than anything else? I don’t see how super tight pricing makes the game more interesting or fun for anyone really.

  • Olhausen

    I don’t play NBA but DK also had ridiculously tight pricing last season in MLB. It was so damn ridiculous and out of control. And believe me I like tight pricing but it was so bad and so hard to build a decent lineup. Give me tight but fair pricing in MLB and I feel I have a chance to finish top ten in a Gpp on any given night. But DK took it overboard last season.

  • KindGuy

    Pricing shouldn’t matter. Everyone is in the same boat.

  • cleanslate

    @elementasrat said...

    Pricing shouldn’t matter. Everyone is in the same boat.

    I have to disagree with this very common response that I’ve heard countless times throughout the years. If casual players aren’t having fun or wanting to play as much because of pricing, that matters. It makes an already sharky industry that much sharkier. If pricing causes more roster overlap that also matters. Huge field GPPs need more variance in roster construction, not less.

    Again, just my opinion. Thanks for the responses so far.

  • kaetorade

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSBBC Finalist

    @cleanslate said...

    I’m not claiming to know the answer to this, but I would like to start a discussion on it. With DK’s recent NBA pricing being tight to the point of stupid (i.e., 6.8k for guys like G. Hernangomez), I really don’t personally understand their reasoning for doing this.

    My opinion is that super “tight” pricing does the following:

    (1) Discourages casual players from playing heavier volume or from playing at all.

    (2) Narrows the player pool down quite a bit as a lot of guys are priced up to the point of being unplayable for most people that aren’t doing a ton of lineups.

    In particular, narrowing the player pool by having pricing that discourages using a lot of active/healthy players, this actually reduces lineup variance. The more players that are viable to be used on a given night, the more variance there should be in roster construction, at least in theory. Tighter pricing seems to discourage roster variance quite a bit, and given how large the GPP tournament fields are on a regular basis now, limiting overall roster variance seems, again, counter-intuitive.

    I don’t get on these boards much anymore, but I would like to get a discussion going on this topic in hopes that the sites actually pay attention to the communities feedback.

    As a final point, isn’t DFS supposed to be fun as much as if not more than anything else? I don’t see how super tight pricing makes the game more interesting or fun for anyone really.

    DK attempts to price guys to reflect their current roles, but obviously, they will miss here and there. Guys who are obviously overpriced will effectively limit the player pool, but it’s a much better alternative of refusing to adjust salary when the situation warrants it(see Fanduel and Yahoo). I’m guilty of enjoying the ‘free square’ here and there, but ultimately, overlap is a losing recipe for cash game players. As far as fun? There are few things more discouraging than seeing 50%+ ownership.

    Accurate/tighter pricing helps keep the playing field even among casuals and experienced players. If pricing was really loose, experienced players are more likely to take advantage of the discrepancy than casual players.

  • JoakimNoah4Life

    tight pricing benefits the worse players, and thus benefits DK. DK’s goal is to make everyone project to 5x, that way, provided you use the full salary cap (or close to it – as most people do), no matter what lineup you run out there, your lineups should be projected to about the same as everyone else’s. Obv they can’t factor in late news, but that’s clearly the goal. So most ya’ll should be thankful of the tigher pricing. Sharper players will do better with looser pricing.

  • Cpjttogether

    Tight pricing means bye bye optimizers and line up sellers, they arent needed anymore.

  • gje627

    I understand the arguments both ways, but I actually prefer tight pricing, as it increases the skill necessary to identify value plays.

    It seems to me that when pricing is easy and everyone can play the top three to four studs every night, that’s exactly what happens and everyone is almost forced to be on the same stud players to win a contest.

    For example, compare the results of the big GPPs on FanDuel in comparison to Draftkings. On FanDuel, given the “loose” salaries, it’s generally easy to fit the night’s three to four studs in a lineup, so everyone does so, and as such it’s not uncommon to see 40+ people tying for first place in these large GPPs.

  • SelfCharmer

    When the pricing is softer, it is more likely that the sharper players will be able to take advantage of the extreme value (as they will identify it better/more often than the casual player), giving them a slightly greater edge

  • gje627

    @SelfCharmer said...

    When the pricing is softer, it is more likely that the sharper players will be able to take advantage of the extreme value (as they will identify it better/more often than the casual player), giving them a slightly greater edge

    Interesting…. Obviously, you make the opposite argument that I make.

    I would be interested in more detail to support your argument and maybe I’ll change my mind.

    My argument rests on the idea that softer pricing allows everyone to be on the same “obvious” multiple studs and only have to decide on a few players to fill out a lineup.

    To expand on this, in NBA contests for example, it seems to me that for less skilled players, using the obvious studs and then “guessing” on two or three players to finish a lineup is much easier than in a tighter salary contest where you can only fit one or two studs and then these same players must “guess” on filling their remaining lineup with five or six other, random players.

    Therefore, in my estimation, the odds of guessing on only two or three players in a lineup gives a person much greater odds to win via luck than being forced to guess on five or six players.

    Certainly I could be wrong though….

  • SelfCharmer

    @gje627 said...

    Interesting…. Obviously, you make the opposite argument that I make.

    With softer pricing, the sharps will make very few if any mistakes. A huge part of making money in DFS is not on the choices you make, but on the mistakes your opponents make – you aren’t playing “the house” you are playing another human.

    With softer pricing the sharps make very few mistakes, casual players will still make mistakes and slowly lose money to the sharps

  • gje627

    @SelfCharmer said...

    With softer pricing, the sharps will make very few if any mistakes. A huge part of making money in DFS is not on the choices you make, but on the mistakes your opponents make – you aren’t playing “the house” you are playing another human.

    With softer pricing the sharps make very few mistakes, casual players will still make mistakes and slowly lose money to the sharps

    Excellent points…. While I still think my argument is valid, you’ve definitely dented my armor.

    What we need is an MIT-level mathematician (or janitor, like in “Good Will Hunting”) to answer this definitively….. Then, when he/she presents us with their results they can conclude by saying “How do you like them apples!!”

    Thanks for the reply….

  • mellofellowsu

    @JoakimNoah4Life said...

    tight pricing benefits the worse players, and thus benefits DK. DK’s goal is to make everyone project to 5x, that way, provided you use the full salary cap (or close to it – as most people do), no matter what lineup you run out there, your lineups should be projected to about the same as everyone else’s. Obv they can’t factor in late news, but that’s clearly the goal. So most ya’ll should be thankful of the tigher pricing. Sharper players will do better with looser pricing.

    Are we talking about what conditions are easier to win or what conditions are easier to pick high performing players?

    Casual players do better with looser pricing as well. So when chalk hits and their price is inappropriately low, then the field becomes that much tougher to overcome.

    Tighter pricing, tougher to find the value guys, but easier to win if you hit on your guys. I prefer tighter pricing.

  • gje627

    @mellofellowsu said...

    Are we talking about what conditions are easier to win or what conditions are easier to pick high performing players?

    Casual players do better with looser pricing as well. So when chalk hits and their price is inappropriately low, then the field becomes that much tougher to overcome.

    Tighter pricing, tougher to find the value guys, but easier to win if you hit on your guys. I prefer tighter pricing.

    Kudos…. That was the argument I was trying to make but I think you stated it much more clearly than I did.

  • headChopper

    RG Contributor (OG Status)

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    I like to be able to identify 3 or 4 guys each night that I think are going to have good games. I’m not talking about the obvious players, but rather the middle-upper tier guys who don’t garner that much attention. The problem with the super tight pricing is that I find those guys on DK, look at the prices, and can really only squeeze 1 or 2 on my roster surrounded by players I really didn’t have any intention of rostering when the research began. This is because the pricing is so tight.
    I much prefer the looser (Fanduel) pricing, but I am not allowed to play there due to being in Texas.
    I am not a fan of the tight pricing

  • LuckyLuc3434

    There are two sides to this I think:

    If pricing is perfectly tight, due to some highly advanced machine learning algorithm employed by the sites, then the pros would have no advantage over the casual player, since the pricing would perfectly reflect a player’s true projected points. The only possible edge that a player could have is in predicting ownership percentage.

    On the other hand, if pricing is ridiculously loose (i.e. Westbrook $3000 etc.), the pros and casual players will again be very equal, since the plays would be so obvious that everybody would play them and again, nobody would have an edge.

    It’s the space in the middle that is where the pros have an edge. Starting from the ridiculously loose side, as pricing gets tighter, the casual players are no longer able to identify all the optimal plays, while the pros are likely still able to identify most of them. As pricing further tightens, casual players now struggle to identify many if any optimal plays, while pros can still identify several.

    However, once we start to approach perfect tight pricing, the edge that the pros have starts to decrease. The casual players are already now not able to identify the optimal plays, however as the pricing further tightens, the optimal plays become less apparent for even the pros. Once you hit perfect tight pricing, neither has an edge again.

    The dilemma for the sites is where to place the pricing along that spectrum. Make it super loose, and the plays are so obvious that everybody is 75% owned and nobody has an edge. Make it super tight, and nobody has an edge since any randomly selected lineup would be good. Make it somewhere in the middle, and the pros have a big edge, which makes things difficult for the casual player, as they will have a reduced chance of winning.

    If you’re the sites, you have to balance giving the pros enough of an edge so that they play and contribute rake, but you have to make that edge small enough that the casual players still have a chance… it’s a difficult problem to figure out

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @SelfCharmer said...

    With softer pricing, the sharps will make very few if any mistakes. A huge part of making money in DFS is not on the choices you make, but on the mistakes your opponents make – you aren’t playing “the house” you are playing another human.

    With softer pricing the sharps make very few mistakes, casual players will still make mistakes and slowly lose money to the sharps

    This is exactly true. Super tight pricing is better for casual players as it evens the playing field/mistakes made.

    Obviously super soft pricing is not good either if you can just roster anyone. I think the sites need to find the proper balance.

  • mellofellowsu

    @LuckyLuc3434 said...

    If pricing is perfectly tight, due to some highly advanced machine learning algorithm employed by the sites, then the pros would have no advantage over the casual player, since the pricing would perfectly reflect a player’s true projected points. The only possible edge that a player could have is in predicting ownership percentage.

    On the other hand, if pricing is ridiculously loose (i.e. Westbrook $3000 etc.), the pros and casual players will again be very equal, since the plays would be so obvious that everybody would play them and again, nobody would have an edge

    Right.

    I think the perception is that DK tends to price tighter and FD tends to price looser. A lot of folks that frequent DK say they prefer looser pricing because they’re subjected at times to pricing that’s too tight. I can’t speak on that because I play FD exclusively.

    As a FD player, I can attest to the fact that the opposite happens on FD. Sometimes pricing is too loose and it’s a big mess because every player has 20%+ ownership, sometimes in excess of 60% in the big field tournaments. Yes the sharper players have an easier time putting together LUs but at a certain point, so do the casual players. Pricing that’s too loose pricing can give the illusion of being a more beatable game but it just leads to higher scores and less margin for error.

    Nothing’s worse than when you’re in 200th place, think you’re making a charge to the top but you can’t move because the 199 LUs ahead of you have the same player that was inappropriately priced.

  • KindGuy

    The Big Question is what is BEST for the industry?

    Do we want the game to be more skillful thereby having the experienced users win more often?

    OR

    Do we want to retain casual players and have them feel like they have a shot every once in a while?

    A lot of the responses are answering the question of, who it benefits but I think the bigger issue is what is NEEDED at the moment for the long term health of DFS.

  • JoakimNoah4Life

    @JoakimNoah4Life said...

    tight pricing benefits the worse players, and thus benefits DK. DK’s goal is to make everyone project to 5x, that way, provided you use the full salary cap (or close to it – as most people do), no matter what lineup you run out there, your lineups should be projected to about the same as everyone else’s. Obv they can’t factor in late news, but that’s clearly the goal. So most ya’ll should be thankful of the tigher pricing. Sharper players will do better with looser pricing.

    Think about it. Draftkings goal is to make as much money in rake as possible. Therefore, they want as many users as possible to stick around, and would prefer the money to be spread around as evenly as possible. It’s not good for the ecosystem when sharks are dominating everything and fish are constantly going bankrupt….. which is why, they are doing exactly what I posted above knowing that tighter pricing favors the FISH. Their goal is to have every player project to 5x their salary so no matter what lineup you construct everyone is on a level playing field. This is why I find it hilarious how many people have players “popping of their model” every day (if it’s a result of late news – post salaries set – then ok)… if you have a player popping of your model that is not a result of late news, your model likely sucks

  • cleanslate

    @elementasrat said...

    The Big Question is what is BEST for the industry?

    Do we want the game to be more skillful thereby having the experienced users win more often?

    OR

    Do we want to retain casual players and have them feel like they have a shot every once in a while?

    A lot of the responses are answering the question of, who it benefits but I think the bigger issue is what is NEEDED at the moment for the long term health of DFS.

    Excellent point.

    Great responses by everyone, very intelligent and well thought out. It’s refreshing to see a positive discussion on a topic not everyone agrees on.

  • cleanslate

    I personally like balanced pricing the best, I don’t think it should be too extreme on either end. I actually liked DK’s pricing prior to the past week of this season. They seem to have tightened things up a lot and I would like to know their reasoning for doing so.

    One of the things I find frustrating about DK is their overall lack of consistency when it comes to pricing. They are all over the place and it is hard to get into a rhythm with them at times. Maybe that is their goal though, as it would take away some of the edge from players that play DFS on a consistent and daily basis. By constantly changing pricing it disrupts one’s ability to get into a great routine day in and day out. This is purely speculative though.

    I greatly prefer DK’s roster structure over FD’s, so when their pricing gets to a point where it isn’t fun for me I always get disappointed because FD’s roster construction is extremely limiting and leads to a lot of duplicate lineups by comparison.

  • idontluvdemhos

    tight pricing is better for the skilled players, don’t see how it is close.. the more decisions we must make, the more likely better players will win $. I don’t understand the arguments itt

  • dangerb407

    @JoakimNoah4Life said...

    tight pricing benefits the worse players, and thus benefits DK. DK’s goal is to make everyone project to 5x, that way, provided you use the full salary cap (or close to it – as most people do), no matter what lineup you run out there, your lineups should be projected to about the same as everyone else’s. Obv they can’t factor in late news, but that’s clearly the goal. So most ya’ll should be thankful of the tigher pricing. Sharper players will do better with looser pricing.

    waaaht?

  • dangerb407

    @JoakimNoah4Life said...

    Think about it. Draftkings goal is to make as much money in rake as possible. Therefore, they want as many users as possible to stick around, and would prefer the money to be spread around as evenly as possible. It’s not good for the ecosystem when sharks are dominating everything and fish are constantly going bankrupt….. which is why, they are doing exactly what I posted above knowing that tighter pricing favors the FISH. Their goal is to have every player project to 5x their salary so no matter what lineup you construct everyone is on a level playing field. This is why I find it hilarious how many people have players “popping of their model” every day (if it’s a result of late news – post salaries set – then ok)… if you have a player popping of your model that is not a result of late news, your model likely sucks

    You need to be able to find the 2 deep value plays that will hit on DK; not sure how that benefits anyone other than the MME guys

  • Cpjttogether

    actually I don’t know wtf is going on. But I sure do try hard to figure it out.

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