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  • RollingDeuces

    Would like to get thoughts on why so many top players were on JJ Nelson. I watched Arizona game last week and he looked bad with a drop or two. I get John Brown was out this week and no DJ, but they are on the road and I’d expect Fitz to be the target hog (boy was I wrong about that). Was he just a cheap play to free up salary elsewhere or did people really expect him to put up a huge game?

  • dbullsfan

    @ChaosM83 said...

    No, there not the same situation. Palmer throws more than Newton, Panthers have both running backs and Palmer has a proven connection with JJ Nelson.

    I think Funchess is an option, but he is nowhere near the same as JJ last week.

    exactly, now if your were to say hey play Christian McCaffrey this week than yea absolutely. McCaffrey should see 10+ targets plus 10+ carries this week.

  • andre_swagassi

    It could be labeled as a wing and a prayer my brother…. based off price, injuries and how poorly Indy plays the pass JJ was selected … during Gametime we hoped he produced …. just like any player that’s picked… don’t get swindled into the confusion that is dfs … we picked him and got lucky…. and someone else got luckier enough to pick him and others that played phoenomenal

  • escot4

    • x2

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    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Champion

    @dbullsfan said...

    exactly, now if your were to say hey play Christian McCaffrey this week than yea absolutely. McCaffrey should see 10+ targets plus 10+ carries this week.

    10+ targets? Cam doesn’t even throw 30 passes per game. I wouldn’t expect McCaffrey to get 1/3 of the team’s target share. I’ve got him for like 6 targets. They should be in clock killing mode for most of the 2nd half with J.Stew and some McCaffrey mixed in.

  • Syzltuth

    If you go back to the week 2 nfl thread you’ll see that there was a lot of discussion about fitz vs Nelson, everything that’s been mentioned here and the conclusion that Nelson would be the better play last week. This week there’s a lot on Thomas vs sanders, Higgins and a few other low priced punts.

  • hendry

    @ChaosM83 said...

    I’m not going to say Nelson had a 10-15 point floor, but it was much closer to that than 0.

    what was fitz’s floor?

  • Phinsfan83

    Its was about opportunity and price. He paid off so many times last years in similar situations because John Brown can’t stay on the field. I shoved him in every line up I could!

  • Cameron

    RG Co-Founder

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Survivor Champion

    • 2016 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    Proven upside from last season. WR2 in an offense in a good spot, with no TE, and missing their crutch RB. – After Fitz the rotation is pretty thin. He has the most upside of the bunch, based on the routes he runs, and showed up week 1. Game logs from Cards the last 2 seasons played into this decision a lot. – And as mentioned…the price was just amazing.

  • ChaosM83

    • 963

      RG Overall Ranking

    @hendry said...

    what was fitz’s floor?

    Fitz had a higher floor but not by much. But when you lock at price, Fitz floor was probably 1.3x and JJ was 2x. And realistic ceiling was 3x for Fitz and 5x for JJ. Not difficult to see why more people went with JJ. Fitz is the name, but go and look at the last 7 games and tell me who was the better WR. Now what happened 7 games ago to trigger this… oh, that’s when the Cardinals released Floyed and Nelson became the #3 WR. It wasn’t hard to imagine that he would continue his success being the #2 last week. Again the choice was pretty obvious. It wasn’t lucky, it was the right call and it payed off, they don’t always pay off but this one did. Everything backed it up, people didn’t luck into it.

  • hendry

    @ChaosM83 said...

    Fitz had a higher floor but not by much. But when you lock at price, Fitz floor was probably 1.3x and JJ was 2x. And realistic ceiling was 3x for Fitz and 5x for JJ. Not difficult to see why more people went with JJ. Fitz is the name, but go and look at the last 7 games and tell me who was the better WR. Now what happened 7 games ago to trigger this… oh, that’s when the Cardinals released Floyed and Nelson became the #3 WR. It wasn’t hard to imagine that he would continue his success being the #2 last week. Again the choice was pretty obvious. It wasn’t lucky, it was the right call and it payed off, they don’t always pay off but this one did. Everything backed it up, people didn’t luck into it.

    you’re truly not understanding my point and even though you just made it for me. fitz’s couldn’t have been 1.3x because he scored 0.8x. the use of floor is being abused…thats my point. this has absolutely nothing to do with jj nelson being a strong play :)

  • mark83vt

    @andre_swagassi said...

    It could be labeled as a wing and a prayer my brother…. based off price, injuries and how poorly Indy plays the pass JJ was selected … during Gametime we hoped he produced …. just like any player that’s picked… don’t get swindled into the confusion that is dfs … we picked him and got lucky…. and someone else got luckier enough to pick him and others that played phoenomenal

    Anyone who thinks there isn’t an extreme amount of luck involved, especially on the big wins, is kidding themselves. If Nelson doesn’t get that late TD, the FD million dollar winner last week is probably making $500. If Adams hadn’t gotten tackled on the half yard line late in Sunday night’s game leading to a Montgomery shovel pass TD, the entire top 10 would have looked different.

    And if Dan Bailey had kicked 1 more FG I wouldn’t have come into work on Monday :(

  • ChaosM83

    • 963

      RG Overall Ranking

    @hendry said...

    you’re truly not understanding my point and even though you just made it for me. fitz’s couldn’t have been 1.3x because he scored 0.8x. the use of floor is being abused…thats my point. this has absolutely nothing to do with jj nelson being a strong play :)

    Well yes everybody has a floor of 0. But that is also unrealistic, you have to set it higher than that.

    But maybe I was missing your point, my main point is JJ was not a lucky play, there were plenty of predictors that that showed a game like this was in the cards. And that people didn’t just luck on to him, but that he was an excellent choice given his price. That was my main point, I don’t want to hear how those who used him were lucky. We didn’t draw names out of a hat or throw darts at a board. There were TONS of reasons to pick him, and it worked out.

  • ChaosM83

    • 963

      RG Overall Ranking

    @mark83vt said...

    Anyone who thinks there isn’t an extreme amount of luck involved, especially on the big wins, is kidding themselves. If Nelson doesn’t get that late TD, the FD million dollar winner last week is probably making $500. If Adams hadn’t gotten tackled on the half yard line late in Sunday night’s game leading to a Montgomery shovel pass TD, the entire top 10 would have looked different.

    And if Dan Bailey had kicked 1 more FG I wouldn’t have come into work on Monday :(

    And if he got that second foot down for the TD in the 1st half then you would be looking at $500 probably. (GREAT win the by the way, I am sorry you didn’t finish one place up)

    There is luck involved on the field, but that is data and information that goes into making somebody a good play. Nelson was a good play, end of story. Its not like people were selecting Bruce Ellington, that would be luck as there is nothing to back up or predict a performance like that.

  • hendry

    @ChaosM83 said...

    Well yes everybody has a floor of 0. But that is also unrealistic, you have to set it higher than that.

    But maybe I was missing your point, my main point is JJ was not a lucky play, there were plenty of predictors that that showed a game like this was in the cards. And that people didn’t just luck on to him, but that he was an excellent choice given his price. That was my main point, I don’t want to hear how those who used him were lucky. We didn’t draw names out of a hat or throw darts at a board. There were TONS of reasons to pick him, and it worked out.

    we’re in agreement on nelson, i was just taking the opportunity to point out a spot (fitz) where it went horribly wrong, whether he had the upside of nelson or not, 0.8x is pretty bad in that spot

  • mark83vt

    @ChaosM83 said...

    And if he got that second foot down for the TD in the 1st half then you would be looking at $500 probably. (GREAT win the by the way, I am sorry you didn’t finish one place up)

    There is luck involved on the field, but that is data and information that goes into making somebody a good play. Nelson was a good play, end of story. Its not like people were selecting Bruce Ellington, that would be luck as there is nothing to back up or predict a performance like that.

    Thanks, luckily when it got down to like 50 people I checked the entries ahead of me and saw one had Montgomery and Freeman so I already knew 2nd was going to be the ceiling before it even got close. But yeah that’s what I’m saying, it worked out this time, but you just never know. If he doesn’t catch that late TD everyone who was saying it was a bad play would be on here pretending they knew for sure they were going to be right. The best you can do is make an educated guess based on the circumstances and cross your fingers. I hadn’t been on here since NBA season and I don’t really read much analysis, I just go on what I think, so Nelson wasn’t even on my radar. Looking at the circumstances, though, I can see why that was a good pick.

  • jimmyd1507

    @mark83vt said...

    Anyone who thinks there isn’t an extreme amount of luck involved, especially on the big wins, is kidding themselves. If Nelson doesn’t get that late TD, the FD million dollar winner last week is probably making $500. If Adams hadn’t gotten tackled on the half yard line late in Sunday night’s game leading to a Montgomery shovel pass TD, the entire top 10 would have looked different.

    And if Dan Bailey had kicked 1 more FG I wouldn’t have come into work on Monday :(

    If he gets the earlier TD…

    We can play the ‘if’ game all we want. The point is, you want the guys best situated to score points. Luck is involved, sure, but if you continually pick players that have no chance of putting up big numbers, that’s not being ‘unlucky’, that’s being stupid.

    Again, yes luck is involved, but I don’t think the game is nearly as much ‘luck’ as you are making it out to be.

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