PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: July 9-12

    Where: Silvis, IL( or Ohio)

    Course: TPC Deer Run | A par 71 playing at 7268 yards( Not really but I hear Murfield is a good comp course)

    Last Year’s Winner: Michael Kim at -27

    Last Year’s Cut: -3

    Coverage: PGALive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mabrla

    I think there are plenty of people with small bankrolls that would take a 2k cashout if they had a solo entry in the MM for a low dollar amt…Question is if those players would be sharp enough to realize their equity was likely do be lower than that amount even leading the MM after Saturday.

  • Awon1

    @mh8235 said...

    At this point getting 6/6 your a pig in shit…if you have the leader in a 6/6 forget about it, lol…no way I’m cashing that out

    It’d get real dicey…how about a monster lineup with like 5 in the top 10 after Thursday, but the sixth is a guy at like +2 or +3…

    What’s even the cash out option here? I doubt DK even offers little more than double your entry here

    It’s like the show Deal or No Deal. DK would calculate your “expected winnings” based on your position and then offer you something less than that with the hope you take it. Over the long run if they do it right, they should be up.

    So like if you were winning 1M on Sunday, and they offered you say 50k and you take it, DK will make or lose (real final standings) -50k. So if you somehow did end up winning 1M here, DK saves 950k. But if you drop a lot and make 10k, DK loses 40k.

  • Unico10

    • 650

      RG Overall Ranking

    @mogan11 said...

    Maybe not 200k, but 2k isn’t enough. I had a single bullet as high as 5th a couple of Sundays ago, and ended up winning 2k (between the mm and the albatross). I wouldn’t have sold my 5th place spot for 2k, much less 1st.

    Yeah.
    Was just making an example that could be an interesting feature… algos can run the sim to come up with the $$ amount… it may be not feasible/profitable on the DK side or it could be too little money to be enticing on the customer side.
    IDK… I think it would add spice to the 4 days contests

  • noddy

    The average payout for me when my current winnings are high on Friday and/or Saturday is a BIG FAT ZERO!!!!!!!!!!!

  • zeeshan2

    just wondering: how much do you guys spend on the milly maker each week?

  • Awon1

    @mabrla said...

    I think there are plenty of people with small bankrolls that would take a 2k cashout if they had a solo entry in the MM for a low dollar amt…

    If they were winning the MM after 3 days, I’m not sure that they would want to drop the entry to just take 2k. It’s an interesting question though.

    The main thing is what’s life changing money for you. I do agree with you, the payout would need to be way higher for high rollers. Awesomo probably would not take anything under 100k imo.

  • Unico10

    • 650

      RG Overall Ranking

    @mabrla said...

    I think there are plenty of people with small bankrolls that would take a 2k cashout if they had a solo entry in the MM for a low dollar amt…

    Last week MM made me think about it… bag had a milly winner coming into Sunday and I believe he ended up winning $1500.

  • noddy

    @Unico10 said...

    Yeah.
    Was just making an example that could be an interesting feature… algos can run the sim to come up with the $$ amount… it may be not feasible/profitable on the DK side or it could be too little money to be enticing on the customer side.
    IDK… I think it would add spice to the 4 days contests

    DK has cashout options on their sportsbook so I don’t think they would be completely against it. Obviously they’d make money in the long run if they offered it.

  • Awon1

    @zeeshan2 said...

    just wondering: how much do you guys spend on the milly maker each week?

    I spend like 1k. So far I’m down since golf resumed around 1k.

    I also spend on some other contests but MM makes up a decent chunk. I’m just looking to hit the big one. I’m ok with 1k losses I guess.

  • Unico10

    • 650

      RG Overall Ranking

    Almost exactly one year ago, before the last hole I was winning $199,600 in the DTG (I believe I was 1, 2, 4, 5)… one bonus or birdie later (don’t remember) I won $50,000… would have I cashed out for $100,000?? IDK but would have been nice to have that option

  • hautalak

    Just thinking “hypothetically” about this I see one issue. I guess it’s already an “issue” now but people having the same lineups and one “cashing out” and the other “letting it ride”. Rinse and repeat.

  • Awon1

    @Unico10 said...

    Last week MM made me think about it… bag had a milly winner coming into Sunday and I believe he ended up winning $1500.

    Yea it depends a lot on the contest. Like it’s easier last week for people to make birdies since it was a birdie fest.

    For the US open, it’s harder to move up as much on a Sunday so you have better relative chances to hold onto a top spot. Still volatile but better than a birdie fest.

  • DC2380

    Anyone know what the cut line is?

  • MGoHarbaugh

    Play resuming at 1:00PM

  • mh8235

    @Unico10 said...

    Yeah.
    Was just making an example that could be an interesting feature… algos can run the sim to come up with the $$ amount… it may be not feasible/profitable on the DK side or it could be too little money to be enticing on the customer side.
    IDK… I think it would add spice to the 4 days contests

    Now here’s a question…if you found out after the fact, that you would have indeed won $1M, what figure would you be satisfied with, knowing that you did indeed cash out…for me it would have to be AT LEAST $30K-$50K range…anything else your regretting it for the rest of your life…point being, you have that 6/6 with a leader, ride that pony like it’s fcking seabiscuit

  • astauty

    @MGoHarbaugh said...

    Play resuming at 1:00PM

  • mabrla

    @zeeshan2 said...

    just wondering: how much do you guys spend on the milly maker each week?

    one entry lol…then the rest in all SE stuff. this is why i’d likely take cashout options if available and I had entries in other contests set to perform well.

  • Awon1

    @Unico10 said...

    Almost exactly one year ago, before the last hole I was winning $199,600 in the DTG (I believe I was 1, 2, 4, 5)… one bonus later I won $50,000… would have I cashed out for $100,000?? IDK but would have been nice to have that option

    I don’t think DK can offer live payouts if they ever did this. I think it has to be round by round.

    The live payout would be bad here because some players have more holes left than other players and everything gets screwy from there. Like I’ve had leads but simply because I had less holes left and more holes played.

    Even round by round it should only be offered to 6/6s imo or I guess they need to create a complex algorithm for 5/6s and others.

  • noddy

    @MGoHarbaugh said...

    Play resuming at 1:00PM

    EST?

  • mabrla

    @mh8235 said...

    Now here’s a question…if you found out after the fact, that you would have indeed won $1M, what figure would you be satisfied with, knowing that you did indeed cash out…for me it would have to be AT LEAST $30K-$50K range…anything else your regretting it for the rest of your life…point being, you have that 6/6 with a leader, ride that pony like it’s fcking seabiscuit

    I would take whatever the balance on my credit cards is lol…but I play dfs to slowly repay all the credit card debt i accumulated in my late teens/early 20s.

  • MGoHarbaugh

    @noddy said...

    EST?

    Yes sorry, should have clarified

  • Sinthetix

    @DC2380 said...

    Anyone know what the cut line is?

    -2 9.4%
    -1 45.4%
    E 38.7%

  • DC2380

    @Sinthetix said...

    -2 9.4%
    -1 45.4%
    E 38.7%

    Thanks

  • bigez952

    @Awon1 said...

    Yea it depends a lot on the contest. Like it’s easier last week for people to make birdies since it was a birdie fest.

    For the US open, it’s harder to move up as much on a Sunday so you have better relative chances to hold onto a top spot. Still volatile but better than a birdie fest.

    I disagree that is harder to move up in a lower scoring event since there is going to be a lot tighter distribution of scores at the top where every shot is going to matter. In a birdie fest if you get the right combo you can run away with it like the guy did a couple weeks ago where it was over a couple holes to go on Sunday.

  • RipCityRings

    6th in the Happy Meal and top 2000 in the Milly with my only entry there, so of course I wake up to Leishman +5 and Lanto +4 on the day. FML. Thought I had something going with Morikawa/X/Champ/Werenski, now it’s almost certainly a 4/6.

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