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  • tbishop8

    Any chance we get contests on DK for the WBC? Seems like a slim chance since they have never done spring training games but we did get Olympic golf and basketball contests as well as the fact that they run preseason NBA and NFL contests. Can’t wait for baseball to be back!

  • cinthree

    Oh wow. Venezuela advances!

    Apparently people were calculating defensive innings wrong – Mexico was being given 9 innings for their first-game loss to Italy, but because Italy beast them with 0 outs in the 9th on a walk-off, techicnally they should have only 8 defensive innings from that game. And that one inning flipped the tiebreaker.

    Italy and Venezuela play in the tiebreaker. Mexico goes home.

  • cinthree

    Here’s how tight it was – if Mexico had gotten even one out versus Italy (meaning they would get 8.1 defensive innings), that would have been enough. Insane.

  • Thomas21

    Wow, what a break for Venezuela.

  • Tristanhoh

    WOW – made my night. I really wanted to see Venezuela pull through.

  • cinthree

    Yeah. And so ridiculous for Mexico. They were told before the game where they stood – they were told they needed to either win a high scoring game (basically any game where both teams score mroe runs than innings played) by 2 or more, or they needed to win a low scoring game (any game with less runs than innings) by any amount. The only way they could not advance was a “high” scoring 1-run win, such as 11-10. Although of note – a low scoring win would mean the tiebreaker would have been MEX/VEN, and a high scoring win by 2+ would have been the MEX/ITA tiebreaker we were expecting.

    Turns out that they SHOULD have been informed that they needed either a low-scoring win (for a MEX/VEN tiebreaker) or a high-scoring win of 3 or more (for a MEX/ITA tiebreaker).

    They would have played the 9th differently – first, in the top of the 9th they had first and 2nd, 0 outs, would they have bunted knowing they needed that run? Also, once they go to the bottom of the 9th only up 2, the only strategy at that point would be to intentionally tie the game up so they can win in extras.

    But of course, if VEN knew that, they would have intentionally made outs in the bottom of the 9th to NOT tie it up.

    Not exactly a well thought out tiebreaking system.

  • joonyari22

    • Blogger of the Month

    DK takes on some fire in these forums from time to time – they deserve an atta boy for offering WBC DFS – made my weekend. Not alot of dough to be won out there but that is not the point – I was glued to the games. Tons of edge to be had in the lack of info out there as well – lets run it back next week!

  • LuckyLuc3434

    @cinthree said...

    Yeah. And so ridiculous for Mexico. They were told before the game where they stood – they were told they needed to either win a high scoring game (basically any game where both teams score mroe runs than innings played) by 2 or more, or they needed to win a low scoring game (any game with less runs than innings) by any amount. The only way they could not advance was a “high” scoring 1-run win, such as 11-10. Although of note – a low scoring win would mean the tiebreaker would have been MEX/VEN, and a high scoring win by 2+ would have been the MEX/ITA tiebreaker we were expecting.

    Turns out that they SHOULD have been informed that they needed either a low-scoring win (for a MEX/VEN tiebreaker) or a high-scoring win of 3 or more (for a MEX/ITA tiebreaker).

    They would have played the 9th differently – first, in the top of the 9th they had first and 2nd, 0 outs, would they have bunted knowing they needed that run? Also, once they go to the bottom of the 9th only up 2, the only strategy at that point would be to intentionally tie the game up so they can win in extras.

    But of course, if VEN knew that, they would have intentionally made outs in the bottom of the 9th to NOT tie it up.

    Not exactly a well thought out tiebreaking system.

    Huge mistake by Mexico… Definitely should have bunted if they needed that run.

    Unfortunately the tie-breaking system is pretty standard for tournaments and probably the best one to use. If you use run differential (which is simpler), you encourage teams to run up the score while up lots of runs — and that was what caused the Mexico Canada brawl in 2013.

    I do think it’s somewhat inexcusable for Mexico to not have properly known their situation. If they had known, intentionally letting VEN to tie the game was their only option (Easiest way is to walk a guy then balk 3 times), and hopefully score a bunch of runs in extras.

  • Tristanhoh

    @cinthree said...

    Yeah. And so ridiculous for Mexico. They were told before the game where they stood – they were told they needed to either win a high scoring game (basically any game where both teams score mroe runs than innings played) by 2 or more, or they needed to win a low scoring game (any game with less runs than innings) by any amount. The only way they could not advance was a “high” scoring 1-run win, such as 11-10. Although of note – a low scoring win would mean the tiebreaker would have been MEX/VEN, and a high scoring win by 2+ would have been the MEX/ITA tiebreaker we were expecting.

    Turns out that they SHOULD have been informed that they needed either a low-scoring win (for a MEX/VEN tiebreaker) or a high-scoring win of 3 or more (for a MEX/ITA tiebreaker).

    They would have played the 9th differently – first, in the top of the 9th they had first and 2nd, 0 outs, would they have bunted knowing they needed that run? Also, once they go to the bottom of the 9th only up 2, the only strategy at that point would be to intentionally tie the game up so they can win in extras.

    But of course, if VEN knew that, they would have intentionally made outs in the bottom of the 9th to NOT tie it up.

    Not exactly a well thought out tiebreaking system.

    Oh man, so on that fly ball to Prado, the pinch runner didn’t advance to 3rd (even though Prado threw it to 2nd basically conceding 3rd to him), and the announcers we’re talking about how bad of a mistake it was, and his 3rd base coach got on him for it.

    Next play, with 1 out, another fly ball to CF. The runner advanced to 3rd. So in theory, if he advanced on the fly ball to Prado, Mexico would’ve advanced? (Assuming he tagged and scored on the next play)

  • jgadharf

    I really wish Mexico would have advanced. Now the top half of Venezuela’s lineup will be chalky, yet hard to avoid.

  • Jaws1002

    Definitely a chalky night/morning, but like you said hard to avoid on a two game slate.

  • jgadharf

    Average runs/game in Tokyo games: 11.2; average in Jalisco games: 16

  • VRod305

    I agree with the DK thing. I don’t play a ton, but I made a little. These slates are just a ton of fun (once you can find the line ups).

  • KindGuy

    Who faded Duffy last night?

  • Thomas21

    Tonight feels like a reliever night with Sugano. Japan’s offense is no joke so I want to fade Banos and obviously the Ven/Ita game is going to be high scoring.

  • VRod305

    I threw in a few line ups to save my spots, but haven’t really looked into anything yet. One thing I’ve decided is no pitchers in Mexico tonight. I also kind of like some Italy bats. Maybe Descalso and Cervelli.

  • VRod305

    Anyone know why the contests are so small? There were like 5,000 people in the free roll, so you would think the paid contests could be bigger.

  • LuckyLuc3434

    @VRod305 said...

    Anyone know why the contests are so small? There were like 5,000 people in the free roll, so you would think the paid contests could be bigger.

    There was an overlay on the very first day, and they shrunk the contests down after that. There was also a huge overlay in the big $3 tournament on friday. $30,000 guaranteed and they didn’t even hit 9000 entrants so DK took at least a $3000 loss there.

    I think they are just being overly cautious now about not having another overlay during the WBC

  • Rickygeiger

    They think people only care about us slates but since people know more than just the Americans, that’s inaccurate imo

  • Quest_File_037

    Have they posted Japan vs Cuba lineup yet?

  • Thomas21

    @Quest_File_037 said...

    Have they posted Japan vs Cuba lineup yet?

    That’ll be out around 5 am

  • Quest_File_037

    Thanks I somehow thought that game was starting at 5pm. My bad

  • Thomas21

    @Quest_File_037 said...

    Have they posted Japan vs Cuba lineup yet?

    Andreoli, Segedin, and Butera are my targets on Italy.

  • cinthree

    @LuckyLuc3434 said...

    Huge mistake by Mexico… Definitely should have bunted if they needed that run.

    Unfortunately the tie-breaking system is pretty standard for tournaments and probably the best one to use. If you use run differential (which is simpler), you encourage teams to run up the score while up lots of runs — and that was what caused the Mexico Canada brawl in 2013.

    I do think it’s somewhat inexcusable for Mexico to not have properly known their situation. If they had known, intentionally letting VEN to tie the game was their only option (Easiest way is to walk a guy then balk 3 times), and hopefully score a bunch of runs in extras.

    I agree – but here’s the catch – they were TOLD by WBC Officials they only needed to win by 2.

    Apparently even the WBC Officials didn’t know that if you lose on a walk-off with 0 outs in the 9th, that inning doesn’t count for purposes of defensive innings.

    And yes, I agree if you use Run Differential, you get intertional incidents like the brawl between Mexico and Canada.

    The solution is not to use a tiebreaker that involves choosing a statistic from within the game – the game is played to win, so when you choose a tiebreaker based on a statistic – such as “fewest runs” or “differential”, you can get to spots where a team will be playing for that statistic as opposed to playing only to win the game at hand.

    Honestly, it’s supposed to be a tournament for entertainment and fun and to grow the game. It’s not the Olympics or soccer’s World Cup – so why not have a fun tiebreaker? HR Derby. Each of the 3 teams sends out their 3 best hitters, 5 outs each. Most HRs wins.

    Is it “fair”? Probably not. Is it silly? Probably. But it’s an event designed to grow the game internationally and honestly, 3 game round-robins aren’t exactly the best judge of a baseball team’s talent. So a HR Derby isn’t that much more random-variation anyway.

    And it would be exciting to watch.

  • cinthree

    @Tristanhoh said...

    Oh man, so on that fly ball to Prado, the pinch runner didn’t advance to 3rd (even though Prado threw it to 2nd basically conceding 3rd to him), and the announcers we’re talking about how bad of a mistake it was, and his 3rd base coach got on him for it.

    Next play, with 1 out, another fly ball to CF. The runner advanced to 3rd. So in theory, if he advanced on the fly ball to Prado, Mexico would’ve advanced? (Assuming he tagged and scored on the next play)

    Correct.

    The manager also said he would have had whoever was batting with 1st and 2nd, 0 out lay down a bunt if he needed to win by 3.

    Also, if they knew they needed to win by 3, but failed to score in the top of the 9th, the correct play at that point is to intentionally walk the first two batters, balk them around the bases so they score, and then try to get 3 outs in the bottom of the 9th so you can try to score 3 runs in the top of the 10th.

  • cinthree

    @VRod305 said...

    I threw in a few line ups to save my spots, but haven’t really looked into anything yet. One thing I’ve decided is no pitchers in Mexico tonight. I also kind of like some Italy bats. Maybe Descalso and Cervelli.

    Don’t just assume that because the guys are in the majors, they’re the best Italy bats. That said, none of them really stand out, so I’m mostly choosing whatever Italian bats fit around the Venezuelan bats I want in each lineup for the lineups that are just full game stacks. Just the way I’m looking at it.

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