MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, April 25th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our Fantasy Pick’em tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, April 25
- Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Andrew Heaney MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
- Mackenzie Gore LESS Than 15.5 Outs and 6.0 Strikeouts
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE Than 32.5 Fantasy Points and 17.0 Outs
Zack Wheeler MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
With every team dealing with scarce starting pitching, there’s a real treasure in a handful of guys, like Wheeler, who can pitch into the 7th inning. You’d have to think the Phillies’ strategy is to maximize Wheeler against a Reds lineup that has a 24.6% K rate against RHP. Wheeler’s 4.7% BB rate should allow him to be economical with his projected 98 pitches to get into the 7th inning. We have him projected for 17.5 outs, which isn’t far off. Considering the DEMON boost, this is a solid PrizePicks projection to attack.
Andrew Heaney MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
We’re splitting hairs on this slate. Andrew Heaney isn’t a high-volume pitcher, and his K/9 is way down to 9.09 from the double digits we used to see from him. But these are the Mariners, whose projected lineup comes in with a 26.3% K rate against LHP. Heaney struggles historically with power, but the projected lineup for the M’s only has a .140 ISO versus LHP, so there is a good shot that Heaney gets through 5 innings, and that’s all just about any pitcher needs against this lineup. We have Heaney projected for 5.3 strikeouts. The edge is thin, but it’s there with upside.
Mackenzie Gore LESS Than 15.5 Outs and 6.0 Strikeouts
League-average lefty against the Dodgers. It’s really hard to see him getting into the 5th inning. Also, the Dodgers don’t strike out much. Terrible spot for Gore to get volume, so his LESS than 15.5 outs is the best play on the board, according to our Fantasy Pick’em Too, with a 67.5% win rate. His LESS than 6.0 strikeouts is the 4th-best play, with a 60.81% win rate.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto MORE Than 32.5 Fantasy Points and 17.0 Outs
The 2nd- and 3rd-best plays, according to our Fantasy Pick’em Tool, is Yamamoto to get through 6 innings and compile MORE than 32.5 fantasy points along the way — carrying 65.47% and 63.5% win rates, respectively. The Nats can be pesky, but their projected lineup only comes in with a .309 wOBA and .155 ISO against RHP to go with a 24.5% K rate. Yamamoto is the Dodgers’ Zack Wheeler for the time being. He’s their path to finding a little bit of bullpen rest. The stuff is electric — 12.29 K/9 with only a 2.05 BB/9 for a 26.9% K-BB rate — so he should mow down the Nats. We have Yamamoto way too conservatively projected for 34.9 fantasy points in 16.4 outs; this is a 40 fantasy points in 18 outs type of spot.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
The early slate has PrizePicks playing with the projections pretty aggressively, so there aren’t many spots on the board to exploit. I suggest a low-volume cheap day for fun.
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