MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, April 28th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our Fantasy Pick’em tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, April 28th
- Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases
- Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases
- Reid Detmers MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Albert Suarez MORE Than 4.5 Strikeouts
- Kevin Gausman LESS Than 15.5 Outs
Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases
Ben Lively is a great target facing any team, but his 1.98 HR/9 against the Braves makes him the primary target to beat PrizePicks total bases projections, and 1.5 is too low for pretty much all of the Braves on the board. The absence of a 2.0 for Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson are huge, as we have them projected for 2.6 total bases. Lively doesn’t have much strikeout stuff, and he throws strikes, so his 81.1% contact rate should play well for Acuna’s 14.8% barrel rate against righties and Olson’s 17.1% rate.
Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases
Our highest total base projection is for Shohei Ohtani: 3.0 is a monster number that eclipses his PrizePicks projection. There is high variance involved because we might still be unsure of how good or bad Kevin Gausman is, but Gausman has been really bad, and it’s not just bad luck. His velocity is way under 90 mph, taking his K rate down to 18.6% (9.5% against lefties). As a guy who gets hit hard, he’s dependent on guys not hitting him at all, and that’s not happening. Ohtani’s 22.7% barrel rate against righties makes him the best hitting play on the board to beat a low PrizePicks projection of 1.5.
Reid Detmers MORE Than 6.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
Reid Detmers has been one the better strikeout pitchers in baseball since 2023. His 10.19 K/9 ranks 9th among pitchers with 170+ IP, and he’s steady at 10.31 to start 2024. He gets to face a Twins projected lineup with a 25% K rate. The great thing about Detmers’ upside is his sub-6% BB rate because that means he can keep his pitch count down to compile innings and therefore strikeout opportunities. He has great K stuff with a great matchup and what should be a long leash after the Angels dipped into their bullpen very early last night, so we have Detmers projected for 6.2 strikeouts. The DEMON boost isn’t free money, but it’s good juice for us.
Albert Suarez MORE Than 4.5 Strikeouts
I like Albert Suarez to beat his 5.5 DEMON boost, but the safer bet is the MORE than 4.5 strikeouts PrizePicks offers. I might have this play in over half of my contests. We have Suarez projected for 4.9 strikeouts, and that might be too low. He’s throwing 95-96 mph against an A’s projected lineup with an embarrassing 28% K rate. After throwing 89 pitches in his last start, it’s safe to say that Suarez is stretched out for a full workload today, so getting to five strikeouts is extremely doable. There is a DEMON boost for Suarez’ outs too that is only 15.5. We should have exposure to that as well.
Kevin Gausman LESS Than 17.5 Outs
This is a high-variance play because recent years have said that Gausman is good, but he has to face the Dodgers, and he’s been really bad. Even if he’s a bit better than he has been, he should get clobbered. The leash is still there, but 95 pitches don’t last very long when big bats smash you. It’s very difficult to see Gausman pitch into the sixth inning — let alone complete six innings — so we have him projected for 15.5 outs. I want LESS than 17.5 outs for Gausman, I want MORE than 4.5 hits allowed, and I want LESS than 31.5 fantasy points. Just book it on the Dodgers.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
I love this slate for high volume, sprinkling in one or two DEMON boosts per ticket. Between targeting the Braves and Dodgers across the board with PrizePicks overrating Gausman and underrating Suarez, there are a lot of ways to make money today. Tanner Houck and Ryan Weathers also have 17.5 outs projected by PrizePicks, which are too high.
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