Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, April 22nd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-04-23 07:11:47

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

A lot of the matchups that were solid yesterday are good again today. Tigers face a replacement starter in Leesman and are highly favorited and have arguably a better matchup against him than last night against Danks, and the Giants face another lefty in Coors. A ton of good pitching is pitching tonight as well so if you want you can go cheap and grab the bats. Most of these plays are going to be GPP plays and I went into the well and grabbed some really affordable guys with upside who you might want to plug in to grab the higher floor Coors Field players.

A $535 Qualifier to the DFBC on FanDuel is tonight so we should see one of the big names qualify there and also DraftKings is hosting another Legends Series Qualifier. Let’s get to it!

		Buster Posey
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.200	0.561	0.00%	0.262
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.105	0.49	5.26%	0.21
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.318	0.944	15.15%	0.424
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,200	$8,341	$9,650	$5,100	$82,600	$7,000	$11,300

Buster Posey

Pretty simple here; he is still extremely cheap, crushes left handers, is in Coors Field, and should make one of the highest owned players again tonight. I am expecting his own % to be a little bit lower tonight than it was last night due to all the talk about fading highly owned players but the reality is he still makes an incredible play tonight and the top cash game option at catcher.

		Miguel Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.265	0.749	2.04%	0.324
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.211	0.634	0.00%	0.292
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Rienzo – RIGHT			0.264	0.809	14.12%	0.365
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.139	1.090	$3,900	$8,725	$11,950	$4,900	$83,800	$8,000	$11,000

Miguel Cabrera

Disclaimer: It’s Leesman starting tonight and not Rienzo. I liked him last night against Danks with some pretty poor results and I like him again tonight Cabrera is slumping but is still a top tier hitter and is cheap. you’re going to want to jump on the train when he starts hitting because his price will only rise from here. Against a guy as inexperienced as Leesman I can only figure that Cabrera will be able to put forth some productive at bats.

		D.J. LeMahieu
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.536	0.00%	0.241
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.300	0.6	0.00%	0.268
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bumgarner – LEFT			0.227	0.618	8.89%	0.285
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$2,400	$4,217	$8,300	$3,900	$58,400	$4,600	$8,500

D.J. LeMahieu

The Human Sneeze is extremely cheap across the industry and still should be considered tonight against Bumgarner. He doesn’t have a ton of power however he’s essentially going to be the cheapest Colorado starter you are going to find, he swipes bags, and is in one of the highest potential scoring games of the night so his RBI and run chances should be plentiful here. The upside you can get from his price is almost unrivaled as everyone else in Coors is going to be pricy.

		Kyle Seager
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.171	0.564	0.00%	0.274
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.208	0.519	0.00%	0.241
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McHugh – RIGHT			0.420	1.194	3.77%	0.515
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.991	0.957	$2,800	$4,166	$8,100	$3,600	$47,400	$5,800	$4,800

Kyle Seager

Seager has been awful so far this season with his ridiculous .512 OPS, but one thing it has done has really made him affordable. He is another great GPP gamble tonight as his .808 OPS vs right handers last year makes him an intriguing option. McHugh was absolute garbage last year against left handed hitters allowing them to post a 1.252 OPS in the limited at bats they did hit him with. He’s got potential but Vegas is really hating him here making Seattle a -173 favorite in this game. I can guarantee Seager won’t be highly owned but if he starts he could really pay off.

		Starlin Castro
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.292	0.764	4.17%	0.328
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.250	0.5	0.00%	0.224
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McCarthy – RIGHT			0.296	0.784	3.24%	0.353
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.192	1.011	$3,100	$5,513	$7,800	$3,800	$54,100	$5,600	$7,900

Starlin Castro

Castro has gone from last year being in the league with Andrus as one of the worst hitters in the majors to play every day to a 5 game hitting streak this year with a .296 average and a .765 OPS against right handed pitchers. He’s not the next coming, but he is extremely cheap, has been seeing the ball well, and is facing off against McCarthy who is having problems keeping the ball in the park. Castro should be another guy that is low owned but has a pretty solid shot of doing something nice tonight.

		Will Venable
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.229	0.578	0.00%	0.253
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.381	0.952	0.00%	0.413
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gallardo – RIGHT			0.249	0.714	10.50%	0.321
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.039	$2,800	$3,988	$9,100	$2,800	$44,300	$5,000	$7,400

Will Venable

Near min-priced Venable may seem like a terrible play tonight, and in cash games, I would definitely think twice about using him however, in GPPs he could definitely pay off. Venable has really struggled this year but has power against right handed pitchers. The over/under in the Brewers game is 8.5 right now and I am having a hard time believing that Gallardo can keep up his stellar play so far. Miller Park is a nice place to hit for a guy like Venable and his 7 for 15 BVP off Gallardo doesn’t hurt either.

		Brandon Moss
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.260	0.725	2.00%	0.319
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.188	0.784	6.25%	0.336
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Martinez – RIGHT			0.250	1.205	27.27%	0.495
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.889	0.931	$3,000	$7,650	$9,100	$3,800	$73,800	$6,200	$10,400

Brandon Moss

Nick Martinez wasn’t terrible against the Rays in his first start, but he wasn’t good either. Tonight he gets to face an Athletics lineup that will most likely be stacked with lefties, one of those being Brandon Moss most likely hitting 4th. I love his RBI and run potential today at home against Martinez and he is always a threat to go deep against a right hander as evidenced by his north of .900 OPS against right handers in the last few years. He’s definitely affordable and can give you that 2 HR game.

		Allen Craig
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.167	0.509	2.08%	0.240
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.269	0.806	3.85%	0.357
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gee – RIGHT			0.247	0.657	3.35%	0.295
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.867	0.961	$2,500	$5,448	$9,700	$3,700	$66,400	$6,100	$7,700

Allen Craig

Are we really pricing Allen Craig as low as we have been recently? I know that he has really been struggling to start the year but he has a .917 OPS in the last 7 days and has proven over multiple years that he is a great hitter. He’s definitely better against lefties than he is against righties but it’s not that big of a dropoff and a .850 OPS against right handers is still extremely solid for the price that he’s going at right now. It is one of those situations where the matchup isn’t great but the number history still makes him a very solid play tonight.

		David DeJesus
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.122	0.420	0.00%	0.195
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.000	0	0.00%	0
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gibson – RIGHT			0.321	0.802	10.53%	0.365
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.931	0.976	$2,300	$3,467	$6,150	$2,900	$34,500	$4,100	$6,400

David DeJesus

I am going way out on a limb today with this one. Yes, DeJesus has been awful, and yes, Kyle Gibson has been great so far this year, but there are a couple of things that make me think that paying for DeJesus tonight at minimum salary is not a team killer. First, it might allow you to roster Tulo, some of the other high priced guys at Coors, or some of the nicely matched up Tigers. Second, Vegas still isn’t loving Gibson after 3 good outings and they have the Rays run total at 4 right now making me believe that he’s pitching way above his mean. Third, DeJesus has had a long history of hitting right handed pitching well and has hit better at the Trop this year. This pick is definitely a GPP play as well but I honestly think he’s undervalued at this price.

		Ike Davis
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.318	1.010	4.55%	0.443
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.286	0.732	0.00%	0.334
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Cueto – RIGHT			0.186	0.541	8.18%	0.247
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.907	0.897	$2,600	$6,186	$7,900	$3,100	$48,700	$5,400	$7,800

Ike Davis

Well, well, Davis has hit very well since being acquired by Pittsburgh, and we all remember what another Davis did after being a disappointment and being traded. They are completely different players, however they both have unquestioned power and are able to hit the long ball making them both solid GPP plays. Ike is extremely cheap, and if he continues mashing like he has in Pittsburgh, his price won’t stay here for long. I’m riding the hot hand in this one and also banking on the fact that Cueto isn’t going to go 9 shutout innings after just pitching a complete game the last time out. Very risky play who will be not highly owned, however if he pays off he could vault you to the top of the contest.