Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 22nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cueto | CIN | PIT | 30 | 1.50 | 2.52 | 0.80 | 45.5% | 30.7% | 7.0% | 0.90 | 1.85 |
| Volquez | PIT | CIN | 21 | 1.71 | 3.88 | 0.95 | 34.4% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 0.43 | 1.75 |
| Skaggs | LAA | WAS | 21 | 3.43 | 3.72 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 13.1% | 4.8% | 0.86 | 2.50 |
| Jordan | WAS | LAA | 16.2 | 5.94 | 4.29 | 1.79 | 33.3% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 0.54 | 1.06 |
| Shields | KCR | CLE | 27 | 2.00 | 3.13 | 0.96 | 64.7% | 24.1% | 5.6% | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| Salazar | CLE | KCR | 14 | 7.71 | 4.03 | 1.93 | 20.0% | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.57 | 0.50 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TOR | 14.1 | 6.28 | 4.87 | 1.70 | 39.3% | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.51 | 0.50 |
| Dickey | TOR | BAL | 23 | 6.26 | 5.27 | 1.65 | 44.1% | 17.3% | 14.4% | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Leesman | CWS | DET | 50.0% | ||||||||
| Verlander | DET | CWS | 26 | 2.08 | 4.42 | 1.35 | 44.1% | 17.7% | 8.9% | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Fernandez | MIA | ATL | 23.2 | 2.66 | 2.25 | 1.12 | 64.3% | 34.0% | 6.2% | 0.76 | 1.19 |
| Wood | ATL | MIA | 27 | 1.67 | 3.13 | 1.11 | 36.4% | 23.1% | 6.7% | 1.00 | 1.79 |
| Tanaka | NYY | BOS | 22 | 2.05 | 1.84 | 0.77 | 33.7% | 2.4% | 0.82 | 1.56 | |
| Lester | BOS | NYY | 29 | 2.17 | 2.78 | 1.03 | 45.5% | 25.7% | 3.5% | 0.62 | 1.65 |
| Wainwright | STL | NYM | 30 | 1.80 | 3.04 | 0.87 | 50.0% | 28.1% | 7.9% | 0.30 | 1.33 |
| Gee | NYM | STL | 26.2 | 3.71 | 4.38 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 16.2% | 6.7% | 1.69 | 0.86 |
| Gibson | MIN | TBR | 19.1 | 0.93 | 4.97 | 1.10 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Price | TBR | MIN | 26.2 | 4.39 | 2.81 | 1.22 | 55.6% | 25.2% | 2.7% | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| McCarthy | ARI | CHC | 25.1 | 7.11 | 3.47 | 1.43 | 36.4% | 14.4% | 5.4% | 2.13 | 3.25 |
| Hammel | CHC | ARI | 20.2 | 3.05 | 3.75 | 0.74 | 26.1% | 21.1% | 6.6% | 1.74 | 0.88 |
| Kennedy | SDP | MIL | 24 | 4.13 | 3.07 | 1.04 | 35.5% | 24.0% | 5.2% | 0.38 | 1.05 |
| Gallardo | MIL | SDP | 24.2 | 1.46 | 3.86 | 1.12 | 45.2% | 19.2% | 7.1% | 0.36 | 1.88 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | COL | 20.2 | 3.48 | 3.20 | 1.83 | 64.5% | 26.5% | 8.2% | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| Morales | COL | SFG | 18.2 | 4.82 | 4.11 | 1.54 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
| Martinez | TEX | OAK | |||||||||
| Milone | OAK | TEX | 11 | 4.09 | 4.18 | 1.55 | 34.6% | 15.1% | 3.8% | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| Burnett | PHI | LAD | 23 | 2.74 | 5.16 | 1.57 | 50.0% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 0.39 | 2.25 |
| Ryu | LAD | PHI | 28 | 1.93 | 3.68 | 1.00 | 56.7% | 22.3% | 8.0% | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| McHugh | HOU | SEA | |||||||||
| Ramirez | SEA | HOU | 18 | 7.50 | 4.87 | 1.78 | 30.8% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 2.00 | 1.00 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Adam Wainwright, STL (at NYM) – I’m not sure how he can improve on a two-hit shutout in Washington with eight strikeouts, but facing the Mets definitely gives him a chance to actually be better five days later. Wainwright has gone seven or more innings in each start with at least seven strikeouts in each, too. He’s as bankable as any starter going right now.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (at BOS) – I may have underestimated the splitter and by may have I mean I absolutely did, at least thus far. I didn’t see it being such a devastating strikeout pitch. It’s accounted for 13 of his 28 strikeouts and Tanaka has looked like a whole lot more than the three starter his GM tabbed him to be this offseason. Maybe Cashman was just trying to curb expectations on their latest import.
Justin Verlander, DET (v. CWS) – We saw Vintage Verlander last fall as he dominated the competition in September and October. And his 2.08 ERA to date might lead one to believe that he’s stayed in that form, but the 17.7% strikeout rate and 1.35 WHIP suggest otherwise. His curveball has been the only pitch that has been near untouchable with a 368 OPS against and 40% strikeout rate. That also happens to be the Achilles heel for the White Sox against righties. Their .153 wOBA against righty curves is second-worst in baseball so look for JV to lean on the breaker to curb that .344 wOBA against righties that stands second-best.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (v. PHI) – Ryu has a 2 IP/6 ER massacre on his ledger this year and yet he still has a 1.93 ERA in 28 IP. That tells you just how good the other four starts have been (spoiler: he hasn’t allowed a single run in any of them).
Johnny Cueto, CIN (at PIT) – An excellent run is nothing new from Cueto, he hasn’t posted an ERA north of 3.00 in any of the last three seasons, but the added strikeouts (35 in 30 IP) are a nice touch. Cueto dropped a three-hit shutout on Pittsburgh back on the 16th with 12 strikeouts. There is nothing in the data that gives us any inkling on how he’ll perform facing them again his next time out. Cueto’s fastball is baseball’s best by a wide margin as it has allowed just a 222 OPS in 60 PA. Garrett Richards is second at 447 in 62 PA.
Yovani Gallardo, MIL (v. SD) – The only thing missing from Gallardo’s hot start has been his normal strikeout rate, but he does have six in each of his last two starts, both lasting six innings so perhaps he’s picking it up. Facing the Padres is a good way to stay hot, too. Their 23.4% strikeout rate against righties is the fifth-highest in the game and their .197 wOBA against righty sliders plays well for Gallardo’s best pitch.
David Price, TB (v. MIN) – I’m not really sweating Price’s rough outing against the Yankees. Prior to that, he’d been great. Additionally, the Twins do their best work against righties as they sit about league average against lefties. Price has a 28/3 K/BB ratio in 26.7 IP this year despite facing a pretty tough slate of opponents: TOR, TEX, at CIN, and NYY.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (at ATL) / Alex Wood, ATL (v. MIA) – Fernandez bounced back from that awful outing in Philly with a gem against the Nats. It’s hard not to have him in the best buys tier, but the Marlins offense just doesn’t support him consistently enough and they are facing a pitcher who has been excellent thus far. Wood has far exceeded my expectations, even in a short sample. And it’s not just about the gaudy 1.67 ERA, but the 6.7% BB rate might even more impressive given his godawful mechanics. I still prefer Fernandez, but I grouped them together because we could see something similar to yesterday where both starters go deep and deliver strong outings, but come away with no-decisions.
James Shields, KC (at CLE) – Shields had a 17.7% strikeout rate before facing Houston and then boosted it to 24.1% after facing them. He also got his first win of the year as the punchless offense supporting him put up five runs against the Astros, matching their output from his first three games combined. The one thing you can count on with Shields is workload, he’s almost always going to go six-plus and that has a lot of value. It takes a lot to get him out before six are completed.
Jon Lester, BOS (v. NYY) – Lester has somewhat quietly put up a huge start, which is surprising given the team he plays for. He was sharp against the Yankees back on April 11th with a 6.7 IP/2 ER effort. He’s logged at least 6.7 IP and 6 Ks in every outing so far this season.
Jason Hammel, CHC (v. ARI) – Hammel is looking a lot more like the 2012 version who looked great for Baltimore before injuries cost him a couple months. Injuries then plagued his 2013, but the Cubs might’ve found their bargain trade chip for later this summer. His 1.7 HR/9 is inflated by three solos from a start against Pittsburgh, but I really like the 3.2 K/BB so far. I’m betting the 4.4 H/9 rate jumps up a bit, but let’s prey on the D’Backs and their .298 wOBA against righties in the meantime.
Edinson Volquez, PIT (v. CIN) – In Ray Searage I Trust! Volquez is commanding the fastball so far and that’s been the biggest change behind his early success. He had a 14.9% BB rate with the pitch a season ago, hitting the zone just 52% of the time with the pitch. This year, those rates are at 5.4% and 64.9%, respectively, so far this year. Getting a win with Cueto on the other end may prove difficult, but Volquez is still cheap enough to be a secondary arm so you don’t have to log that W to earn his price.
USE CAUTION:
Madison Bumgarner, SF (at COL) – I think with the available studs today, there is no real reason to dabble with MadBum in Coors. He hasn’t been the sharpest version of himself to date and his recent record in Coors isn’t great. He had a nice 7 IP/1 ER outing there last year, but it was sandwiched by 4.7 IP/7 ER and 5.3 IP/3 ER duds. If you’re desperately looking to zig while others zag, using someone in Coors is the way to go, but that has pretty low EV so I don’t recommend it.
Kyle Gibson, MIN (at TB) – I’m intrigued by his early start, but the component numbers don’t support anything close to a 0.93 ERA and the Rays actually do some hitting against righties. Additionally, they have a 10.3% BB rate – fourth in the league – so they could wait Gibson out and exploit him that way as he’s been stingy with hits.
A.J. Burnett, PHI (at LAD) – Burnett is coming off of his sharpest outing of the year with just two walks in seven innings against the Braves. He allowed just three hits, too, but took a no-decision in the 1-0 game. I wouldn’t necessarily be eager to use him in LA, especially since the Dodgers punish righty curves (.380 wOBA), but I’ll be monitoring this start to see if he can hold the gains from the Atlanta start and turn back into a viable option for daily gaming.
Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (v. HOU) – He’s been atrocious. I get it. But it’s Houston. I’m really curious to see how used he is tonight given how bad he’s been. The Astros have the league’s worst wOBA against righties at .273 and they strike out 25.4% of the time. The competition plus his price will make him an intriguing option despite the awful start.
Dillon Gee, NYM (v. STL) – I’d feel more confident if I could be assured that they’d pull him after 75-80 pitches, even if he’s dealing. They pulled him after 72 despite seven shutout innings in Arizona and I’m hoping it’s because they realize how much he degrades around that time.
Tyler Skaggs, LAA (at WAS) – I’m excited about Skaggs overall as he’s making some improvements, but he has one good start and it was against Houston. He has just 11 Ks in 21 IP and the Nats hold baseball’s best wOBA against lefties thus far at .381 with a .242 ISO. This isn’t a great spot for the young lefty.
Tommy Milone, OAK (v. TEX) – Milone can only be used at home or in other pitcher-friendly ballparks. He started in Seattle and LA and came out relatively clean, especially given his bargain basement pricing. The Rangers are sixth in wOBA against lefties at .345, but we’ll see if they can maintain that in the cavernous O.co Coliseum.
Danny Salazar, CLE (v. KC) – Salazar has been obliterated by homers – my biggest concern for him coming into the season – but the Royals don’t really do that so maybe we can see some improvement from the young phenom? They also don’t strike out, though, which his Salazar’s bread-and-butter. KC’s 12.7% K rate is easily baseball’s best with the Rangers in second at 17.2%.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
R.A. Dickey, TOR (v. BAL) – The downside is just too severe. He can end your night in two innings. There’s upside, obviously, but not enough to pay what is still a relatively high price (at most outlets, at least).
Ian Kennedy, SD (at MIL) – He has one start outside of Petco and it was against Miami. I need to see him have success on the road against strong teams in neutral or hitter-friendly venues before I’ll trust him.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (at CHC) – What has he proven that even an outing against the Cubs would make him appealing?
Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (at TOR) – I’m never using a 2.5 HR/9 rate in Toronto. Sure, it’ll come down, but his career mark is 1.3 HR/9, so he’s always been prone to the longball.
Taylor Jordan, WAS (v. LAA) – Starts against ATL, ATL, and STL is the direct opposite of a soft landing for a young guy trying to secure a spot in the rotation. The Angels aren’t exactly a breath of relief.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Franklin Morales, COL (v. SF)
- Nick Martinez, TEX (at OAK)
- Charlie Leesman, CWS (at DET)
- Collin McHugh, HOU (at SEA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cueto | 0.247 | 2.25 | 0.263 | 2.52 | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.191 | 2.84 | 0.151 | 106.00 | 65.1% |
| Volquez | 0.365 | 6.03 | 0.326 | 4.64 | 0.259 | 0.716 | 0.234 | 3.03 | 0.205 | 50.50 | 67.8% |
| Skaggs | 0.343 | 3.97 | 0.325 | 4.72 | 0.311 | 0.939 | 0.269 | 3.84 | 0.25 | 93.00 | 63.8% |
| Jordan | 0.315 | 5.72 | 0.334 | 3.15 | 0.242 | 0.739 | 0.349 | 3.68 | 0.303 | 63.67 | 63.4% |
| Shields | 0.282 | 2.98 | 0.316 | 3.17 | 0.251 | 0.731 | 0.239 | 3.48 | 0.2 | 80.75 | 63.5% |
| Salazar | 0.278 | 2.67 | 0.379 | 5.57 | 0.268 | 0.689 | 0.405 | 6.08 | 0.328 | 62.67 | 59.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.317 | 3.62 | 0.332 | 4.27 | 0.242 | 0.695 | 0.349 | 6.77 | 0.333 | 87.00 | 62.5% |
| Dickey | 0.332 | 4.52 | 0.312 | 4.34 | 0.272 | 0.703 | 0.309 | 4.73 | 0.261 | 77.00 | 61.4% |
| Leesman | 0.342 | 4.93 | 0.365 | 4.67 | 0.261 | 0.709 | |||||
| Verlander | 0.293 | 2.86 | 0.323 | 4.08 | 0.275 | 0.778 | 0.301 | 2.69 | 0.243 | 81.75 | 65.1% |
| Fernandez | 0.269 | 3.06 | 0.216 | 1.44 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.321 | 2.15 | 0.22 | 96.50 | 67.1% |
| Wood | 0.287 | 2.48 | 0.302 | 2.93 | 0.251 | 0.695 | 0.286 | 3.52 | 0.237 | 75.75 | 64.0% |
| Tanaka | 0.157 | 2.77 | 0.288 | 1.00 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.255 | 1.99 | 0.185 | 101.67 | 69.5% |
| Lester | 0.286 | 3.40 | 0.313 | 3.64 | 0.288 | 0.782 | 0.308 | 2.39 | 0.239 | 81.25 | 66.2% |
| Wainwright | 0.277 | 3.29 | 0.274 | 2.36 | 0.224 | 0.635 | 0.222 | 2.28 | 0.162 | 76.50 | 65.7% |
| Gee | 0.348 | 4.35 | 0.295 | 3.13 | 0.270 | 0.735 | 0.184 | 5.03 | 0.194 | 93.00 | 65.3% |
| Gibson | 0.365 | 4.95 | 0.320 | 5.10 | 0.258 | 0.775 | 0.211 | 3.44 | 0.179 | 65.67 | 55.3% |
| Price | 0.242 | 3.15 | 0.313 | 3.63 | 0.223 | 0.644 | 0.333 | 3.38 | 0.271 | 78.75 | 71.7% |
| McCarthy | 0.330 | 4.37 | 0.353 | 5.54 | 0.227 | 0.628 | 0.289 | 5.60 | 0.286 | 91.25 | 66.0% |
| Hammel | 0.378 | 5.94 | 0.289 | 3.23 | 0.258 | 0.701 | 0.118 | 4.77 | 0.141 | 99.33 | 62.1% |
| Kennedy | 0.349 | 5.13 | 0.325 | 4.61 | 0.263 | 0.718 | 0.284 | 2.33 | 0.22 | 73.25 | 64.8% |
| Gallardo | 0.321 | 4.01 | 0.306 | 3.77 | 0.241 | 0.641 | 0.264 | 2.91 | 0.217 | 74.25 | 60.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.235 | 1.94 | 0.285 | 3.16 | 0.325 | 0.854 | 0.444 | 2.35 | 0.322 | 76.00 | 62.8% |
| Morales | 0.204 | 2.45 | 0.424 | 6.11 | 0.249 | 0.725 | 0.315 | 5.11 | 0.282 | 49.75 | 63.3% |
| Martinez | 0.495 | 9.00 | 0.230 | 2.25 | 0.260 | 0.773 | |||||
| Milone | 0.345 | 5.25 | 0.319 | 3.88 | 0.308 | 0.824 | 0.350 | 3.90 | 0.306 | 94.00 | 63.8% |
| Burnett | 0.345 | 4.63 | 0.244 | 2.19 | 0.254 | 0.742 | 0.271 | 4.69 | 0.233 | 78.00 | 56.1% |
| Ryu | 0.316 | 3.21 | 0.275 | 2.76 | 0.304 | 0.838 | 0.244 | 2.26 | 0.184 | 68.60 | 63.8% |
| McHugh | 0.515 | 10.97 | 0.401 | 9.39 | 0.220 | 0.652 | |||||
| Ramirez | 0.365 | 5.50 | 0.337 | 5.50 | 0.180 | 0.592 | 0.339 | 6.13 | 0.32 | 67.50 | 60.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window