MLB First Look: Wednesday, August 27th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Wednesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM | St. Louis | Pittsburgh | Wainwright (15-8) – 2.52 ERA | Locke (5-3) – 3.69 ERA |
| 3:40 PM | Texas | Seattle | Lewis (8-11) – 5.54 ERA | Hernandez (13-4) – 2.07 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Baltimore | Smyly (8-10) – 3.42 ERA | Gausman (7-5) – 3.81 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Washington | Philadelphia | Fister (12-4) – 2.38 ERA | Kendrick (6-11) – 4.93 ERA |
| 7:07 PM | Boston | Toronto | Kelly (2-3) – 4.26 ERA | Stroman (7-5) – 4.11 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Detroit | Greene (3-1) – 3.17 ERA | Price (12-9) – 3.00 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | N.Y. Mets | Teheran (12-9) – 2.96 ERA | Wheeler (9-8) – 3.48 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Turner (4-7) – 5.77 ERA | Holmberg (0-1) – 18.56 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Chi. White Sox | Kluber (13-7) – 2.46 ERA | Noesi (7-9) – 4.86 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Kansas City | Hughes (14-8) – 3.65 ERA | Hendriks (1-0) – 6.08 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Houston | Pomeranz (5-4) – 2.91 ERA | Peacock (3-8) – 5.30 ERA |
| 9:10 PM | Milwaukee | San Diego | Gallardo (8-7) – 3.38 ERA | Despaigne (3-5) – 3.44 ERA |
| 9:40 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Arizona | Kershaw (15-3) – 1.82 ERA | Miley (7-9) – 4.29 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Miami | L.A. Angels | Alvarez (10-5) – 2.57 ERA | Santiago (3-7) – 3.38 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Colorado | San Francisco | Morales (5-7) – 5.32 ERA | Hudson (9-9) – 2.99 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Clayton Kershaw (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): As usual, when Kershaw is on the schedule, he is the top pitching option of the night. Kershaw owns a 1.82 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 10.8. He draws a terrific matchup against a depleted Diamondbacks team that owns the worse offense in baseball over the last 30 days.
David Price (vs. New York Yankees): Price is also in play as a top ace on Wednesday, but he does draw a considerably tougher matchup than Kershaw. Price owns a 3.00 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 9.9. He throws as many strikes as any pitcher in baseball. While the Yankees do make good contact as a team, I still expect Price to average a K per inning in this one.
Julio Teheran (vs. New York Mets): Alex Wood was a bit of a disappointment last night against the Mets, but he finished strong. I expect Teheran to dominate this lineup that could be without David Wright again tonight. The Mets are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and Teheran will be pitching in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Joe Kelly): The Blue Jays have made this section of the First Look column 3 days in a row now. They draw another favorable matchup against another Boston Red Sox starter. Joe Kelly really struggles against LH hitters and he doesn’t strike many batters out. I’m expecting a big outing from the Jays who are the #1 ranked team vs. RH pitching this season.
Oakland A’s (vs. Brad Peacock): The A’s offense has cooled off over the last month or so, but they should be able to get things going on Wednesday as they draw a terrific matchup against Brad Peacock. Peacock has a 5.30 ERA on the season and has given up a .350+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 19 (Tuesday, August 26th): Both Torii Hunter (BvP) and Adam Lind (wOBA) had solid games on Tuesday night. Hunter went 2/4 with a double and an RBI, but Lind topped him by going 2/4 with 2 doubles and a walk. Lind’s victory gives team wOBA their first lead since the early stages of this contest.
Scoreboard: BvP 9 – wOBA 10
Wednesday’s Matchup:
Ian Desmond (vs. Kyle Kendrick): Desmond earns honors as the BvP play of the day as he has had a great track record against Kendrick in his career. Desmond has gone15/39 with 5 XBH’s off of him which equates to a .385 batting average and a 1.03 OPS.
Steve Pearce (vs. Drew Smyly): Pearce has been a very streaky player this season, but he’s been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits over his last 10 games. He also has a great matchup against Miley who is giving up a .355 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Pearce meanwhile, has a .454 wOBA vs. LH pitching.
4) He’s on Fire!
Justin Turner (vs. Wade Miley): Turner has been red hot over his last 8 games. He has 11 hits (4 XBH’s), 7 RBI’s and 5 runs. He also draws a pretty favorable matchup against the lefty Miley in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Target Turner as a cheap value play at 2B.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Brandon Moss (vs. Brad Peacock): There are quite a few reasons to like Moss tonight. First off is his matchup against Peacock. Peacock has given up 17 HR’s in 19 starts this season. Of those 17 HR’s, 9 of them came off the bats of LH hitters. Moss doesn’t have any HR’s in the month of August, but 19 of his 23 HR’s on the season have come off of RH pitching. Finally, Moss will see a nice ballpark boost. Minute Maid Park is one of the more HR-friendly parks in baseball.