MLB First Look: Wednesday, July 30th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Wednesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | Milwaukee | Tampa Bay | Gallardo (5-5) – 3.57 ERA | Price (11-7) – 3.08 ERA |
| 12:10 PM | Philadelphia | N.Y. Mets | Kendrick (5-10) – 4.87 ERA | Wheeler (5-8) – 3.64 ERA |
| 12:35 PM | Arizona | Cincinnati | Miley (6-7) – 4.34 ERA | Simon (12-5) – 2.86 ERA |
| 12:40 PM | Washington | Miami | Roark (10-6) – 2.82 ERA | Hand (2-2) – 4.19 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | Oakland | Houston | Hammel (8-8) – 3.41 ERA | Keuchel (9-7) – 3.11 ERA |
| 3:45 PM | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Morton (5-10) – 3.40 ERA | Lincecum (9-7) – 3.96 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Seattle | Cleveland | Hernandez (11-2) – 1.99 ERA | Kluber (10-6) – 2.77 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | L.A. Angels | Baltimore | Richards (11-3) – 2.62 ERA | Gausman (4-3) – 3.67 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Chi. White Sox | Detroit | Noesi (5-7) – 4.99 ERA | Scherzer (12-3) – 3.37 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Toronto | Boston | Buehrle (10-7) – 3.19 ERA | Workman (1-3) – 4.13 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Texas | Kuroda (7-6) – 3.99 ERA | Lewis (6-8) – 6.23 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Colorado | Chi. Cubs | Anderson (1-3) – 3.24 ERA | Wood (7-9) – 5.06 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Kansas City | Hughes (10-7) – 4.10 ERA | Duffy (5-10) – 2.47 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | St. Louis | San Diego | Kelly (2-1) – 3.90 ERA | Hahn (6-2) – 2.12 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Atlanta | L.A. Dodgers | Wood (7-8) – 3.44 ERA | Greinke (12-6) – 2.74 ERA |
UPDATE – Jon Lester has been scratched from his scheduled start today and replaced by Brandon Workman (1-3 with a 4.13 ERA)
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Wednesday’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Zack Greinke – Greinke is one of the top pitching targets on Wednesday night. He owns a 2.74 ERA on the season while striking out 9.6 batters per 9 innings. He walks very few batters and he is facing a stagnant Braves’ offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.
David Price – Price is in play tonight because he throws a lot of strikes and he strikes out a ton of batters. Price is averaging over 10 strikeouts while only walking 1 batter per 9 innings. The Brewers have a lot of RH batters to throw at Price, but that shouldn’t be a problem as he’s held them to a .278 wOBA this season.
Zack Wheeler – Wheeler offers the most bang for your buck. He is facing a struggling Phillies’ offense that is only ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Wheeler has terrific stuff, but he’s struggled with his command and his consistency at times this season. That said, he’s capable of posting a double-digit strikeout game and his price is extremely on most sites.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers face Hector Noesi at home on Wednesday. While Noesi hasn’t been the automatic stack against option that he was earlier in the season, he still is a below average pitcher. Noesi has a 4.99 ERA on the season and the Tigers hit RH pitching well as a team. Look for Miggy and Co. to hang a big number on the White Sox.
New York Yankees – The Yankees are an easy offense to target on Wednesday. They are facing the struggling Colby Lewis in the very hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. They are also coming off of an 11 run outburst last night against the Rangers. Lewis really struggles vs. LH hitters and the Yankees lineup consists primarily of hitters that can bat from the left side of the plate.
3) wOBA vs. BvP Play of the Day
Round 3 (Tuesday, July 29th): Jimmy Rollins (BvP) defeats Stephen Vogt (wOBA).
Scoreboard: wOBA 2 – BvP 1
Brett Gardner (wOBA Play of the Day)* – Gardner has a lot of things in his favor on Wednesday, one of which is his matchup in terms of handedness. Gardner has a .363 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and is facing Colby Lewis who has given up a .426 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
David Ortiz (BvP Play of the Day) – One of the biggest arguments against BvP is that it’s a small sample size. That’s not the case with Ortiz on Wednesday as he has faced Mark Buehrle 79 times in his career. He has 25 hits off of him with 13 of those going for extra bases.
4) Stolen Base Prediction
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury wasn’t a big part of the Yankees 12 runs on Tuesday night, but should get into the action on Wednesday against Colby Lewis. Not only has Lewis struggled vs. LH hitters, but he’s already given up 14 SB’s this season which is the 6th most of any pitcher in the majors. Ellsbury will look to add to his running total of 28 SB’s on the season.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Mike Moustakas – Moose Tacos is an off the board pick to homer, but I like the matchup against Phil Hughes and Moustakas has always had nice power against RH pitching. 10 of his HR’s this season have come off of righties and I’m predicting number 11 to come against Hughes and the Twins.