MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-24 21:57:55

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Boston at Toronto

Boston					Toronto
Rubby De La Rosa		Vegas Moneyline			Marcus Stroman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-124)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.700	0.308	18.7%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.671	0.300	20.8%
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.715	0.319	17.4%	SP vs. Right	0.277	0.649	0.287	20.8%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rubby De La Rosa – We have another split schedule day of games on Thursday that features 4 day games and 4 evening games. Most sites are offering early only leagues so we will quickly cover those games first. De La Rosa will be on the mound for the Red Sox today. He has really pitched well this season as he’s sporting a 2.64 ERA with a K/9 of 7.11. His peripheral stats suggest that he’s not quite pitching up to his 2.64 ERA, but he still has an xFIP of 3.49. The issue isn’t with De La Rosa, it’s with the matchup against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. This should be another high scoring affair which makes De La Rosa an easy avoid in the early slate. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13900 DD, $6700 DK, $56800 FF, $21600 SS, $NA FTD

• Marcus Stroman – Stroman has been a nice addition to the Blue Jays starting rotation. In his first 9 big league starts, he’s posted a 3.58 ERA with a K/9 of 7.7. He’s managed to pitch well at home despite the Rogers Centre being one of the better hitter’s parks in baseball. It’s tough to predict his value today though as the Red Sox offense is finally starting to heat up. They’ve already scored 21 runs in the first 3 games of this series. The options with a 3-game slate are certainly limited though and I don’t mind him as your 2nd pitcher. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12950 DD, $7500 DK, $99600 FF, $19500 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz loves playing in the Rogers Centre. He has 4 HR’s in the first 3 games of the series. While predicting HR’s is certainly tough, Ortiz is locked in right now and is facing a rookie pitcher in a hitter’s ballpark.

Additional Plays: Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew

Toronto

Jose Reyes – I always love taking the Blue Jays bats at home, especially against RH pitching as they are ranked 1st overall in wOBA vs. righties. Reyes has been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits over his last 10 games and he has nice stolen base potential as well with a RH pitcher on the mound.

Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Dioner Navarro, Dan Johnson

Texas at NY Yankees

Texas					NY Yankees
Colby Lewis		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-185)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.400	1.022	0.447	16.6%	SP vs. Left	0.301	0.760	0.335	18.7%
SP vs. Right	0.297	0.803	0.358	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.292	0.768	0.345	14.1%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Colby Lewis – Lewis has been my favorite pitcher to stack against all season long. He’s sporting a hefty 6.37 ERA on the season while giving up a .390 wOBA to his opponents. While his BABIP is through the roof at .413, he’s just not a pitcher that you want to use in your fantasy leagues. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6300 FD, $8850 DD, $5000 DK, $47700 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy is a big favorite today, but that has more to do with the opposing pitcher than it does McCarthy. Well, that may not be entirely true. Even though his ERA doesn’t look great, his xFIP is at 2.87 on the season which suggests that he’s had some bad luck and bad defense behind him. You can typically expect the ERA and xFIP to meet in the middle so I’m expecting a much better second half of the season for McCarthy. He has a decent K/9 of 7.7 and he’s facing a Rangers’ offense that has struggled vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6500 FD, $12900 DD, $7200 DK, $82400 FF, $19000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Leonys Martin – Martin is a nice OF play that should fly under the radar. He has a .336 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and has racked up 7 hits over his last 4 games. He’s facing McCarthy who has been vulnerable to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – If you are playing in the early slate, get as many Yankees into your lineup as possible. Lewis has given up a .443 wOBA to LH hitters and the Yankees’ lineup is full of batters that can hit from the left side of the plate. Ellsbury leads the way as the top play, but you can make an argument for every hitter in this lineup.

Additional Plays: Anyone in a pinstripes uniform

San Francisco at Philadelphia

San Francisco					Philadelphia
Tim Hudson		Vegas Moneyline			Cole Hamels		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-116)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.692	0.311	13.9%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.659	0.298	25.4%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.610	0.275	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.677	0.306	22.5%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tim Hudson – Hudson doesn’t have the highest K-rate (only averaging 5.7 per 9 innings), but he gets the job done. He has posted a 2.78 ERA on the season and has a career low 1.35 walks per 9 innings. He’s had terrific command this season and offers great value on both FD and DK where his price is extremely reasonable. He’s facing the Phillies who are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $16700 DD, $7600 DK, $90400 FF, $22900 SS, $NA FTD

• Cole Hamels – Hamels has more upside than Hudson, but arguably has a much tougher matchup. The Giants are ranked 13th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season, but do strike out at a 20.7% clip. Hamels is a bit riskier than Samardzija who looks like the top play in the early slate. I think it may pay dividends to take two of the cheaper pitchers and load up on your hitters. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9100 FD, $18100 DD, $10400 DK, $101400 FF, $28200 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – At this point we all know that Posey can hit LH pitching, even top tier LH pitching such as Hamels. He has a .383 wOBA vs. southpaws this season and has hit Hamels well in the past going 7/11 with 5 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

Philadelphia

Grady Sizemore – Sizemore is cheap and with Howard out of the lineup, he’s moved up a spot and will bat in the 5 hole. Hudson has given up a .322 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Sizemore has 11 hits in his first 9 games as a member of the Phillies.

Additional Plays: Chase Utley

Houston at Oakland

Houston					Oakland
Scott Feldman		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Samardzija		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-260)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.694	0.318	15.4%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.749	0.332	23.0%
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.689	0.311	16.7%	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.651	0.301	22.9%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Feldman – Feldman is not a recommended fantasy play today. Not only is he the biggest underdog on the board, but he has very limited upside as he’s only averaging 5.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. Avoid him today against the A’s. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5500 FD, $9300 DD, $5000 DK, $51200 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija is the top play in the early slate of games. He has a 2.91 ERA with a K/9 of 8.1. He’s a huge favorite and faces the Astros who strike out more than any team in baseball. He’ll be a popular play, but he’s the right play. Rating = 9

Salaries: $7900 FD, $16800 DD, $8600 DK, $91500 FF, $24200 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Avoid all Astros today against Samardzija.

Oakland

Brandon Moss – Moss was a disappointment last night as the A’s had a big offensive outing without him. That said, you have to forgive and forget in daily fantasy. Moss has crushed RH pitching all season long and has a terrific matchup against Feldman who has given up a .344 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: John Jaso, Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp

Miami at Atlanta

Miami					Atlanta
Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Moneyline			Aaron Harang		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-142)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.698	0.312	13.7%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.786	0.350	15.6%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.602	0.281	14.9%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.706	0.314	21.2%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez has pitched well this season. He’s sporting a 2.64 ERA. That said, he has a low K-rate and his peripheral stats suggest he’s not pitching as well as his impressive ERA. Tonight he faces a Braves offense that struggles against RH pitching, but I think there are better options in his price range. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7300 FD, $13150 DD, $6800 DK, $68800 FF, $18600 SS, $13150 FTD

• Aaron Harang – Harang has struggled against the Marlins this season. In 3 starts, he has a 6.23 ERA while giving up a .313 batting average. Harang could be worth a look as a GPP play thanks to the high strikeout rate the Marlins have on the road, but I have a hard time trusting him for cash games. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6900 FD, $14750 DD, $6900 DK, $99200 FF, $19000 SS, $14750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Christian Yelich – Harang has really struggled vs. LH hitters this season and Yelich offers a nice value play in the OF. He’s facing a RH pitcher too which means the stolen base potential is there.

Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – I always like taking Freeman against RH pitching. Freeman has a .374 wOBA vs. righties this season and he’s hit Alvarez well in the past going 5/7 with 3 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Tommy La Stella

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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