MLB H2H VS GPP Plays Aug 29
MLB Picks for 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head VS GPPs
Well I guess I did okay filling in for Pepsi7 last week, and was asked to fill in for him again today. In this article I am going to give you my MLB picks for all game types, including 50/50s/double-ups/head-to-head and GPPs (guaranteed prize pool tournaments). I will break them down into two parts: Part 1 – 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head (AKA cash games), Part 2 – GPPs.
Part 1 – 50/50s/Double-ups/Head-to-Head (AKA Cash Games)
When playing 50-50s/double-ups or head-to-head, you want guaranteed points. This is not where you roll the dice on all-or-nothing players. The idea is to simply produce a solid, well balanced team. It may not be explosive, but it doesn’t matter whether you finish in first place or not, you just need to cash.
STARTING PITCHERS
Felix Hernandez – Felix Hernandez gets the nod as my favorite pitcher for cash games tonight. He has a tough matchup against Zimmermann, but Zimmermann has struggled on the road this season. Seattle lefties are all swinging the bat very well right now, and I expect Felix to be pitching with a lead in this game. Hernandez has given up 5 ERs over his last 2 starts against BOS/DET, but gets to travel back home where he’s pitched much better. King Felix has posted a .181 AVG against in 96 innings at home this season.
Ervin Santana – Santana has been pitching fantastic over the last 2 months, and 6-1 over his last 8 starts. The Marlins have the highest strikeout percentage (23.8) against right handed pitchers this season, and a very modest .308 team wOBA. Santana has a solid floor we look for in cash games, and also has the upside to be a top performing pitcher on the night. Tom Koehler has pitched well lately, but is still giving up a lot of hits per start and the Braves should be able to give Santana a lead to pitch with.
Other Pitchers I like – Miguel Gonzalez, Jon Lester
CATCHER
Victor Martinez – Martinez is going to be the highest priced catcher on the board tonight, but for good reason as he’s been the most consistent catcher this season. Carroll is one of the top pitchers to target tonight, and has really struggled with left handed hitters (.378 wOBA) this season. Martinez is crushing righties and lefties this season, and is the safest catcher on the board tonight.
Miguel Montero – If you’re trying to fit a top pitcher in tonight, Montero really helps you free up some cap. He’s super cheap across the industry right now, and is way under pitched on FD tonight. Bergman picked up his first Major League win against Miami last week, but was touched up for 4 ERs on 9 hits. Montero bats towards the top of the lineup, and has a nice floor in a hitters ballpark.
Other Catchers I like – Jonathan Lucroy, Russell Martin
FIRST BASE
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo hasn’t played the last 2 nights with back tightness, but they completely expect him back in the lineup tonight against St. Louis. Shelby Miller has really struggled over his last 3 starts, and has to face a red hot Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo comes in with hits in 7 of his last 8 games, and a .377 wOBA against right handed pitching this season.
Justin Morneau – Morneau is one of the only hitters on this Rockies team that doesn’t lose value when they go on the road. He’s had a nice floor for cash games all season, and has a nice matchup against Collmenter tonight. Collmenter has a .352 wOBA against left handed hitters this season, and this is still a hitters ballpark.
Other First Basemen I like – Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
Scooter Gennett – Gennett is warming back up at the plate and has hits in 6 of his last 7 starts. Vogelsong has a .345 wOBA against left handed hitters this season, and has struggled in his last 2 starts. Gennett has a nice floor for cash games, and one of the best matchups for 2B tonight.
Neil Walker – I really like Walker against right handed pitching, and he has a great matchup against Leake tonight. Walker usually bats in the 2 spot with McCutchen behind him, or he bats in the 4/5 spot with Martin behind him. It really doesn’t bother me if he’s in either one of these spots tonight, and I have no issue using him in your cash games.
Other Second Basemen I like – Jose Altuve, Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano
THIRD BASE
Adrian Beltre – Beltre is batting .326 on the season, and has actually been one of the better cash game 3B. He presents a great floor, and always brings the homerun upside. Beltre has a .409 wOBA against lefties this season, and Oberholtzer has given up 17 hits and 7 ERs in his last 2 starts.
Martin Prado – Prado is smashing left handed pitching this season, and I nailed him against a lefty last Friday. Buehrle’s inability to strike hitters out will come into play big time in tonights game, and his xFIP suggest he’s due for some regression. Prado has a .430 wOBA against lefties, and presents a great value play at 3B tonight.
Other Third Basemen I like – Conor Gillaspie, Matt Carpenter
SHORTSTOP
Alexei Ramirez – Ramirez has really been solid for cash games lately, and comes in with 6 of his last 7 games with 4 of those being multi-hit games. Verlander has struggled against right handed hitters this season, and has given up 8 ERs over his last 2 starts. I really like the White Sox tonight, and have no problem with using 2-3 of them in my cash lineups tonight.
Danny Santana – Santana has cooled down over the last 3 games, but still comes in with a .375 AVG over the last 7 days. Gonzalez is a huge favorite tonight, but it’s still one of the highest O/U on the board. Gonzalez has struggled with left handed hitters this season, and comes in with a .359 wOBA to left handed hitters.
Other Shortstops I like – J.J. Hardy, Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELDERS
Jose Bautista – I would usually only recommend Bautista for cash games, but there’s just not a lot of solid options in the top tier tonight. Joey Bats is crushing left handed pitching this season, and comes in with a .453 wOBA against lefties. He’s 7 for 19 with 2 homeruns in his career against Capuano.
Nelson Cruz – Cruz is a FD special tonight, and is extremely under priced. May has given up 14 ERs in 14 innings this season. This game has one of the highest O/Us, and I totally expect the Os to score some runs tonight. Cruz is usually only a GPP play tonight, but I really like his floor in this matchup tonight.
Charlie Blackmon – I like Blackmon a lot more at home, but his price is down across the industry and he has a great matchup tonight. Collmenter is giving up a .352 wOBA to lefties this season. Blackmon has cooled down since the start of the season, but has hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Other Outfielders I like – Mike Trout, Alex Gordon, Jayson Heyward, Alex Rios
Part 2 – GPPs
GPPs are a whole new ball game. You need guys to have huge nights. GPP tournaments are all about upside. All-or-nothing players can become GPP gold, while value players are just as important as your star players.
STARTING PITCHERS
Jacob deGrom – If you’ve followed me this season then you know I really love the upside of deGrom. He looked pretty good in his first start back, but as I’ve said many times, the first start coming off the DL is the hardest. Philly has a 20.8 K% with a .292 wOBA against right handed pitchers this season. deGrom has always had the strikeout upside, but before going to the DL he had won 5 of his last 6 games. This is a great matchup for him to get back on track, and he really could go out and dominate this Philly offense.
Chris Archer – Archer is pitching lights out right now, and has a lot of upside against a Red Sox team that is struggling this season. The Red Sox had a good series against Toronto, but are still struggling as a team at the plate. Archer has only given up 4 ERs over his last 25 IP, and has at least 6 strikeouts in 5 straight games. I think Archer will be over looked with so many great pitching options tonight, and could end up a top 5 pitcher tonight.
Other Pitchers I like – Danny Salazar, Edison Volquez, Jered Weaver, Andrew Casher
CATCHER
Salvador Perez – Danny Salazar has a ton of upside because of his strikeout rate, but has some serious reverse splits against righties this season. He’s giving up a 1.73 HR/9 with a .368 wOBA to right handed hitters this season. Perez has respectable numbers against right handed pitchers this season, and makes for a low owned GPP option tonight.
Brian McCann – A lot of people are going to look at this lefty vs lefty matchup, and completely avoid McCann in this matchup. Well lucky for us, McCann has completely crushed left handed pitching this season, and currently has a .392 wOBA against lefties this season. He’s 9 for 21 with a 1.145 OPS in his career against Buehrle.
Other Catchers I like – Evan Gattis, Dioner Navarro, Jason Castro
FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu – Jose Abreu might actually be my top overall play of the day, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes yard tonight. Verlander is completely a different pitcher than we’ve seen in his career, and is really struggling (.384 wOBA) against right handed hitters this season. Abreu comes in with insane power numbers (.295 ISO & .958), and has hit 26 of his 33 homeruns against right handed pitching.
Ike Davis – Davis is a streaky hitter like most platoon guys, but has homeruns in back to back games and has a great matchup against Leake. Leake is struggling with lefties this season, and has a .356 wOBA with a 14.1% FB/HR. Davis is a boom or bust play, and I really like him for a low owned option in GPPs.
Other First Basemen I like – Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Moss
SECOND BASE
Ian Kinsler – Ian Kinsler has some down numbers against righties this season, but he has a great price across the industry tonight. Carroll has really struggled this season, and I totally expect Kinsler to have RUN/RBI potential tonight. There’s not a lot of options at 2B tonight, and really like the upside Kinsler presents in this matchup.
Chase Utley – I really like deGrom tonight, but with that said I think Utley will be very under owned. Utley always presents good upside, and can always have break out games. deGrom’s biggest struggle earlier this season was homeruns to left handed hitters.
Other Second Basemen I like – Aaron Hill, Steve Tolleson, Emilio Bonifacio
THIRD BASE
Kyle Seager – Seager is going to be overlooked in his matchup with Zimmermann tonight, but he’s exactly the type of play we want in a GPP. Seager has smashed right handed pitchers at home this season, and comes in with a .477 wOBA and a .377 ISO. Zimmermann has a higher strikeout rate on the road this season, but is giving up more homeruns on the road this season.
Pablo Sandoval – The Panda is 10 for his last 28, and presents a good amount of upside for GPPs tonight. Wily Peralta is really struggling with left handed hitters this season, and comes in with a .367 wOBA. Panda has a lot more power for the left side, and 9 of his 14 homeruns have comes from the left side of the plate.
Other Third Basemen I like – Pedro Alvarez (if playing), David Freese, Danny Valencia
SHORTSTOP
Zach Walters – Walter is the definition of a GPP play. He has 9 homeruns in 101 at bats this season, but on the flip side is striking out close to 29% of the time. He’s been very good against left handed pitching, and has a good matchup against Vargas. In a small sample size, Walters has a .499 wOBA against lefties.
Eduardo Escobar – I’m all for saving money at SS in GPPs tonight, and we seen the type of upside Escobar has in 2 games last week. This game has one of the highest O/Us tonight, and I think a lot of people will be on the Baltimore side of this game.
Other Shortstops I like – Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins
OUTFIELDERS
Corey Dickerson – The Rockies tend to be under owned once they leave Coors, but Dickerson presents a ton of upside in this matchup tonight. He’s coming in with a .433 wOBA over the last 7 days, and a .418 wOBA against righties this season. Dickerson has 3 homeruns in his last 7 games, and 6 homeruns in the month of August. His numbers have been just as good on the road this season.
Justin Upton – Justin Upton is used a lot more against left handed pitching, but Koehler has some reverse splits this season. Upton has cooled down from his hot streak, but is still 8 for his last 25 at the plate. Upton’s upside is nice because he’s been hitting in bunches lately.
Jorge Soler – Soler is a top prospect for the Cubs, and good for the Cubs with all this power they’re calling up. Soler is 4 for 8 in his first 2 games in the majors, and a lot of sites still have him at min price. I don’t expect him to have another 2 hit ballgame, but at his price I will take a chance for sure.
Other Outfielders I like – Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Carter, Jay Bruce, JD Martinez, Chris Coghlan