NBA Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, October 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Orlando at Indiana
| Orlando | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts | 197.0 |  | Vegas | 197.0 | |||||||
| Spread | 9.0 | Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Pace | 94.48 | Pace | 92.84 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | Season | 27 | 16 | 25 | 12 | 27 | |
| Last10 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 3 | 5 | Last10 | 28 | 11 | 28 | 22 | 18 | |
| Nelson-Oladipo-Harkless-Harris-Vucevic | Hill-Stephenson-Granger-West-Hibbert | |||||||||||
Orlando
The NBA is back! I’ve never been so excited to break down a game between the Magic and Pacers before. The Magic could be in for a very long season. While they have some great young talent in Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, and Victor Oladipo, they need a few more pieces before they will be a playoff contender.
In order to be successful in daily fantasy basketball, it is critical that you learn the rosters, rotations, and most importantly, the injuries. The Magic will be without Tobias Harris tonight so look for that to open up minutes for both Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson. The Magic are also going to throw rookie Victor Oladipo straight into the fire, look for him to get around 30 minutes tonight.
Now let’s get to the matchup. The Pacers had one of the best defenses in the league last season and ranked in the top 10 against every single position making them a fantasy nightmare to take players against. However, there are a lot of value players on this Magic team and with only 3 games on opening night, you are going to have to dig deep to make a solid team.
Players to Target
- Moe Harkless – Harkless’ minutes and production should both benefit from Tobias Harris being out tonight. He is a strong candidate to play 40+ minutes in this game. Harkless is pretty cheap across the board and if you haven’t played NBA before, you will quickly learn that the NBA is all about minutes. Last season Harkless after the All-Star break, Harkless averaged 13 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and a steal. Expect him to put up similar numbers tonight.
- Andrew Nicholson – I’ve mentioned this a few times already, but I will say it once again to make my point. The NBA is all about minutes and with Harris ruled out of tonight’s game, Nicholson will get the start and get a huge bump in minutes. Nicholson averaged 10 points and 4 rebounds as a starter last season and is close to minimum salary on sites across the board. He draws a tough matchup against David West, but should be able to produce enough to be worth taking.
Indiana
The Pacers are getting better every season and the addition of Luis Scola is really going to give that second unit a boost offensively. The Pacers will also have Danny Granger back this season, although he will be out for the first few weeks of the season.
The Pacers are best known for their defense, last season they loved nothing more than to win games by being physical and playing great defense. The Pacers were one of the slowest paced teams in the league last season. They averaged only 90.2 possessions per 48 minutes which was ranked 25th in the league. In general, due to the slow pace of play, the Pacers aren’t quite as fantasy relevant as some of the fast paced teams such as the Rockets.
The Pacers open up their season as 12-point favorites against the Magic and should be in line for a pretty easy win on opening night. The Magic struggled to defend PG’s, PF’s, and C’s last season and that will likely continue this season as they have the same core at those positions.
Players to Target
- Paul George – Last year was a breakout season for George. Not only did he establish himself as the best SG in basketball, but he showed up big in the playoffs. He also got paid during the offseason with a max contract extension. The matchup against the Magic is a favorable one and George is one of those few players that can really fill out the stat sheet. He does everything well. He can score, rebound, assist, and is a great defender that can rack up the blocks and steals on any given night.
- Roy Hibbert – The Magic struggled against opposing Centers last season and a big part of that was because Nikola Vucevic just isn’t a very good defender. Vucevic is much more concerned about the offensive side of the floor. With only a few options at Center tonight, Hibbert is probably the safest of the bunch as Joakim Noah is a bit banged up.
- Lance Stephenson – With Granger out for the first few weeks, Stephenson will get the start at SG. He played really well last season as the starting SG for the Pacers. Last season he averaged 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists as a starter. He’s not going to put up monster numbers, but he gets a good amount of minutes and is one of the only starters whose minutes won’t be hurt if this turns into a blowout.
Chicago at Miami
| Chicago | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts |  | Vegas | |||||||||
| Spread | Spread | -11.0 | ||||||||||
| Pace | 91.97 | Pace | 92.97 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 7 | Season | 7 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 21 | |
| Last10 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 22 | Last10 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 30 | |
| Rose-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah | Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh | |||||||||||
Chicago
To sum up Chicago’s offseason, all we really need is two words: Derrick Rose. He took a lot of heat, no pun intended, for sitting out all of last season, but it’s hard to second guess him now after he has been so dominant in the preseason. Having Rose back in the lineup changes the whole dynamic of the Bulls’ offense. They won’t have to run set plays every time down in order to score as Rose will create shots not only for himself, but for his teammates as well. I really expect the biggest beneficiaries of Rose being back will be both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah as Rose will find them open shots and they won’t have to try to create on their own in order to score.
The Bulls open up their season in Miami so they have a tough test right off the bat. The Heat are favored by 5 points in this one which is actually a bit lower than I would have predicted. The Heat had a very solid defense last season. If you look at their DvP rankings, they really only struggled against one position last season which was Centers. Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh just aren’t great defenders and opposing Centers really padded their rebounding stats against this undersized Heat team last season.
Players to Target
- Derrick Rose – Rose has averaged 20 points and 5 assists with limited minutes in the preseason. He said it himself, “When I get back into my groove, it’s really going to be scary.” Lebron has typically been matched up against Rose in the past, but I don’t think that we have to worry about that tonight. The Heat have only put Lebron on Rose in important games and it’s hard for me to see them coming out that aggressive on opening night. If I’m right, that leaves Rose against Chalmers and I give a huge edge to Rose in that matchup.
- Joakim Noah – Like we mentioned above, the Heat really struggle against opposing Centers. They are undersized and the center position is really their only weak link in that defense. Noah is one of the few centers in the league that can fill up all of the stat categories. He’s a very good passer for a big man and he’s one of the best rebounders in the game. While he has been a bit banged up in the preseason, Thibodeau says he will be good to go and there is no way that he will sit Noah if this game is close. Noah should have no problems getting a double-double tonight.
Miami
The Heat are looking to be the first team to 3-peat since the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe. They seem to get better every season. Last year they added Ray Allen (who saved their season by hitting that 2 in the finals) and this year they have added both Michael Beasley and Greg Oden. I don’t think that those additions will be nearly as important to the team as Allen was last season, but the Heat are the 2-time defending champions, they don’t need to get any better.
The Heat start the season off healthy with all five of their starters a full-go for their opener against the Bulls. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive side of the floor and we could see a low scoring game tonight, especially considering the fact that it’s opening night and players always try to do a little too much on opening night. The Bulls defense ranked in the top 10 against every position last season and the Heat were one of the slower paced teams in the league averaging only 90.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Those are two stats that I typically don’t like to see, but there are only 3 games on the schedule so we have to work with what we’ve got.
Players to Target
- Lebron James – Lebron loves the big moments and this game will be the biggest moment of the season so far. He would love nothing more than to come out and beat the Bulls in their opener. I expect the Heat to get off to a slow start as they will have their ring ceremony before the game. But after the rust wears off, look for Lebron to be himself and dominate on both ends of the court. Lebron averaged 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists against the Bulls last season and I expect him to top those numbers tonight.
- Mario Chalmers – This pick may come as a bit of a surprise, but Derrick Rose is a very aggressive defender that likes to take a lot of chances. He jumps into passing lanes and often leaves his player in order to try to force some turnovers. That could leave Chalmers open on quite a few occasions and we all know that he can hit the three when he is open. Chalmers typically takes a backseat to Lebron as the PG of the offense, but I think he could score 10+ points and pick up a few assists and rebounds.
L.A.Clippers at L.A.Lakers
| L.A.Clippers | L.A.Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Pts |  | Vegas | |||||||||
| Spread | Spread | 12.5 | ||||||||||
| Pace | 93.56 | Pace | 96.78 | |||||||||
| Opponent Defense vs. Position | Opponent Defense vs. Position | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 30 | 27 | 18 | 17 | 12 | Season | 2 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | |
| Last10 | 30 | 27 | 7 | 25 | 1 | Last10 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 20 | |
| Paul-Redick-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan | Nash-Meeks-Young-Williams-Gasol | |||||||||||
L.A.Clippers
The battle of L.A. might be over after only a couple of weeks. The Clippers are clearly the better team this season and it’s not going to take very long for them to prove it. The Clippers had a big offseason. They added two sharp shooters in J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley and added a new coach in Doc Rivers. Doc is one of the best coaches in the league at understanding each player and being able to get the most out of them. This is the first time that I’ve ever considered the Clippers to be contenders to win it all.
If you look at the DvP rankings, you see a lot of blue and green rankings for the Clippers matchup tonight. Anytime Mike D’Antoni is the coach of a team you can expect them to be bad on defense and now that the Lakers don’t have Dwight Howard in the middle, they could be the worst defense in the league. The over/under in this game is a full 10 points higher than it is in the other two games and the Clippers have the most fantasy appeal from a matchup standpoint.
Players to Target
- Chris Paul – Paul is coming off of a strong season where he averaged 16 points and 10 assists. Having Doc Rivers as his head coach is only going to help his numbers because Doc understands that position as well as anyone and he always gets the most out of his PG’s. Paul has the best matchup on the board as he will be guarded by Steve Nash who just doesn’t have the lateral foot speed needed to guard CP3. Look for Paul to top 20 points and 10 assists in this one.
- Blake Griffin – A lot of us expected Griffin to get better last season, but he was really the same player that he had been in previous seasons. He is an extremely athletic big men that makes his bread and butter on being able to jump over and through his opponents. He still can’t hit jumpers, but to his credit, his free-throw percentage did get a little better. Even though I have my doubts about him, I’m a big Griffin fan and I love taking him in fast-paced games against bad defenses. Griffin will be matched up against Shawne Williams and Jordan Hill. He should have a monster game.
- J.J. Redick – Redick has never played with a top-notch PG. While he had Jameer Nelson in Orlando, Jameer is more of a score first type of PG. CP3 on the other hand likes to get everyone involved before he really turns on his offensive game. I think we will see Redick really excel in this offense and will play the role that Ray Allen had in Boston. He will spread the floor and get plenty of open looks.
L.A.Lakers
Not a great offseason for the Lakers. They lost Dwight Howard and Metta World Peace to free agency. They are still without their best player in Kobe Bryant as he works his way back from injury. They have one of the worst starting fives in all of basketball. And, they are getting no love from Vegas. They open the season as 9-point underdogs against the city-rival Clippers.
The matchup with the Clippers is a tough one as the Clippers ranked in the top 15 against every position last season. That said, the missing pieces on the Lakers are going to really open minutes up for a few players. I’m not going to spend big on the Lakers tonight, but there are a few plays that are worth considering. The starting five of the Lakers will be as follows: Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Nick Young, Shawne Williams, and Pau Gasol.
Players to Target
- Pau Gasol – Pau took a backseat to Dwight last year, but we still saw quite a few big games out of him. This season he will be the focus of that offense until Kobe Bryant comes back and I think that Pau is going to surprise some people with the type of numbers that he puts up. He has a tough matchup against DeAndre Jordan tonight, but DeAndre is the type of defender that likes to leave his feet and Pau is a very crafty veteran in the post.
- Shawne Williams – It sounds like Williams is going to get the start tonight at PF and my montra of minutes equals production should ring true here. Williams is a forward that can score and one that should really shine in D’Antoni’s system. He is dirt cheap across the board and will likely get some open looks as Griffin usually doesn’t stray too far away from the basket.
- Jodie Meeks – Meeks is a very boom or bust type of player that really doesn’t do much on the floor except score. He can be a frustrating fantasy player especially on sites that negate for missed shots. With Bryant out of the lineup for a while, Meeks is going to see big minutes and is playing in an offense that values the quick trigger. Meeks will get the shots, the big question is whether or not they fall.