NBA Grind Down: Sat. 4/19 and Sun 4/20 - Page 2
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Charlotte at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -9.5, 189.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh
Charlotte
These two teams come into this series as polar opposites. The Bobcats are a young team with a bright future that played their best basketball toward the end of the season. The Heat are a much older team that may be on their last legs and they are entering the playoffs in quite a skid. While I don’t expect the Bobcats to put up much of a fight, the way the Heat have been playing does have me concerned for their quest to win 3 in a row.
The way to beat the Heat is to beat them in the paint. The good news for the Bobcats is that they have arguably the best offensive Center in basketball. The Heat are ranked 3rd or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s, but are ranked 25th against Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed.
- Al Jefferson – I expect the Bobcats to feed the rock to Big Al early and often in this game. He is their best offensive player and as I mentioned above, the Heat have really struggled against opposing Centers this season. The Heat were also the 2nd worst rebounding team in the league which boosts Jefferson’s fantasy value even more.
Miami
The Heat are expected to be at full strength for this series which may be the first time in months. Coach Spoelstra hasn’t announced whether he will start Greg Oden, Udonis Haslem, or Shane Battier yet, but none of those players carry much fantasy value. This should be one of the slower paced series as both teams play at an average pace and both teams are ranked in the top 10 defensively.
LeBron James may be a bit overpriced for this matchup, but you can never truly rule out LeBron, especially in a playoff series. Chris Bosh makes a nice value play at Center, the Bobcats are ranked 20th against Centers this season and Big Al may have a tough time defending him on the perimeter.
- Dwyane Wade – Dwyane “GTD” Wade says that he feels better heading into this year’s playoffs than he did last season. His lingering injuries seemed to be more of an excuse to get him rest down the stretch than anything else. His price is very affordable across the industry and I think we see classic Wade come out in this series.
Washington at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -5, 181.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Washington
This is going to be the slowest paced series in the first round. The Wizards play at a slightly below average pace and the Bulls play at the slowest pace in the league. That does not bode well for the Wizards’ fantasy value. I expect the Bulls to make quick work of the Wizards and wouldn’t be surprised to see them take this series in 5 games. The Bulls own a top 3 defense and were ranked 5th or better against every position on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. I’ll be avoiding the Wizards completely, even in GPP’s.
Chicago
While this series is expected to be very low scoring, that’s just the norm for the Bulls. The starters should all see their typical production as the pace of the game will be played similar to that of the Bulls’ season average. The Wizards are pretty solid defensively though as they are ranked 15th or better against every position on the floor.
I’m not going to highlight any players here, but I will have some exposure to the Bulls’ players throughout this series. Joakim Noah continues to be a walking triple-double threat and he continues to have a floor of 40 FP’s. He makes a solid play in cash games. I also like Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. Both should play well in this series.
Portland at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -5.5, 215.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Portland
The final Game 1 is between the Blazers and the Rockets. This should be a terrific series for fantasy purposes as both teams love to push the pace and both teams are pretty inept defensively. The Rockets have slipped in the DvP rankings over the last month or so, but a lot of that had to do with Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley both missing time. Both of them will be back in the lineup in this series which hurts the fantasy value of both Damian Lillard and Robin Lopez.
Nicolas Batum is flying under the radar in this series, but he is a player that can fill up the stat sheet and really create havoc on the defensive end of the floor. The Rockets like to turn the ball over and Batum should have a few games where he posts 3+ blocks and/or steals. He makes a terrific tournament play in Game 1. Wesley Matthews and Mo Williams are two players that I will also have some exposure to in this game.
- LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge has had a tiny bit of success against this Rockets team this season. In 4 games against them this season, he is averaging 27 points, 15 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. The Rockets have struggled against PF’s all season long and that should not change in this series. I have Aldridge ranked higher than Griffin, Curry, and Westbrook so if you are looking for a player to spend on, Aldridge is your guy.
Houston
The Rockets are getting healthy at just the right time. Both Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley will play in this series and neither player is expected to be limited. The Blazers were ranked in the bottom 5 in points allowed per game this season and have really struggled against two positions all season long. They are ranked 28th against PG’s and 18th against Centers.
James Harden will likely be a popular play here as people will see the high total and expect big things from the beard, but I’m not quite sold on his matchup. Nicolas Batum will likely spend the majority of time on Harden and Batum is an excellent defender. Obviously he isn’t going to be able to stop Harden, but I think he will contain him. Chandler Parsons and Patrick Beverley are better dollar for dollar values in my eyes.
- Dwight Howard – Dwight has dominated Lopez in their previous meetings this season. He is averaging 25 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal per game. Dwight was fairly limited in the last few games of the season, but should be close to 100% for this series. His price has come down across the board and I will be targeting Dwight in both cash games and GPP’s.