NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bengals-Jaguars DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bengals at Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The AFC South leading 8-3 Jaguars host the 5-6 Bengals who are in pretty much must-win mode if they want any shot at a Wild Card spot. It’s going to be a tall task on the road with Jake Browning at the helm, but Cincinnati will get Tee Higgins back so he’ll at least have another big body to throw to. The Jaguars come in pretty much at full strength (besides the guys on IR), as Travis Etienne is expected to play even though he’s officially questionable with a ribs injury.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bengals at Jaguars Week 13
Currently, this game is sitting at a 39.5 total, with the Jaguars favored by 9.5 points. Jacksonville has won seven of their last eight games and have all the momentum tonight, as Cincinnati has lost three in a row while scoring just 30 total points over their last two games. The Jags have scored 60 points over their last two games and should dominate tonight, but let’s get into who I’m liking from both teams as we will have to use some Bengals even with their pitiful 15-point team total.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence ($10,800) is a clear must-play in cash games as should easily have 2+ total TDs with all his weapons available. He doesn’t have the biggest rushing upside, but he does have three rushing TDs over his last two games, so he should be in plenty of captain spots in tournament lineups and is a top captain option for cash games as well.
The likely game script and matchup will help Jake Browning ($8,800) get plenty of opportunities to put up a solid line. Still, I don’t think he’s a must play in cash games as there about six guys I would rather use for cheaper or just a bit more salary. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), I would absolutely have plenty of Browning stacked with Mixon and his WRs, as the Jaguars are still allowing 255 pass yards/game and we should see 30+ pass attempts from Browning assuming the Jags score early and often.
Running Back
Joe Mixon ($7,000) is probably the cheapest he’s ever been for a showdown slate, as he’s coming off a rough 8 FP performance on just 10 touches last week. This will be another tough spot for him as Jacksonville is allowing only 87.4 rush yards/game, and he may get game-scripted out of a lot of carries if the Bengals fall behind big early. He should still see plenty of passing work, so I don’t mind him at all for cash games, and if he can find the endzone, he’ll have a good shot at being one of the best p/$ plays in all formats.
Travis Etienne ($10,200) is in an absolute smash spot, assuming he’s able to play through his ribs injury, and stacking him with Lawrence should cover you for all the Jags TDs. Etienne will be facing the league’s second-worst rush defense allowing 139.6 rush yards/game, along with the worst overall defense, allowing 390.5 total yards/game. He should be leaned on heavily if the Jags get a solid lead, and his receiving upside makes him another top captain target in all formats. DErnest Johnson ($4,200) has taken over the RB2 role with 6+ FP in each of his last two games, so I would make sure to have some GPP lineups with him in case Etienne re-injuries himself or Jacksonville gets such a huge lead they just go with Johnson late.
Wide Receiver
Between JaMarr Chase ($9,400), Tee Higgins ($7,600), and Tyler Boyd ($5,600), I’m treating them as mostly guys to sprinkle over GPP lineups as I think it’ll be hard to trust any one guy to have a huge game with Browning at QB, plus the return of Higgins will definitely eat into the upside of Chase/Boyd. If you absolutely are set on using one in your cash game lineup then I think Higgins is the best p/$ play, and I’d make sure to captain he and Chase in plenty of tourney teams.
The Jags also have a strong trio of WRs in Calvin Ridley ($9,200), Christian Kirk ($8,200), and Zay Jones ($5,200). Zay only had 1 catch last week and is off my radar outside of maybe one or two GPP lineups, and between Ridley and Kirk I prefer Kirk in cash games as I’m hoping he’ll be lower-owned and he’s seeing just as many targets as Ridley. I think pretty much any lineup you build should have at least one of Ridley or Kirk with some of each in the captain spot.
Tight End
Evan Engram ($6,200) has seen 7+ targets in all but two games this year and is easily my favorite cash game skill player to target under $7k. I’m not saying he’s a cash game must play as he’s been held under 50 yards in seven of his last eight games and hasn’t scored a TD on the year, but for the price he has plenty of upside to go for both 50+ yards and a TD while helping you fit in some higher-priced guys.
The Bengals have been going with four active TEs lately, but Tanner Hudson ($4,000) has emerged as the clear TE1 with 21 targets over the last four games. He’s still very TD-dependent as far as going for 10+ FP, but if you need to fill a final flex spot for $4k, he’s a solid option. Smith, Sample, and Wilcox are all GPP fliers at best with legit 0 FP floors.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m definitely not interested in the Bengals DST ($3,200) outside of maybe one or two GPP teams, but the Jags DST ($4,800) should put up a solid line at home against an offense with a projected 15-point total, so I don’t mind them in cash games as a strong correlation play with Etienne.
Both Evan McPherson ($4,600) and Brandon McManus ($5,000) are top cash game plays for me, as each have huge legs and both have a great shot at putting up 10+ FP.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
With Lawrence and Etienne as must-plays for me, I like going with Kirk over Ridley to save some salary and take a stand on the field, and I think using McManus as well is a great way to cover all the Jags points. Using Kirk in the captain spot along with those other three Jags in flex spots allows you to perfectly fit in Mixon and McPherson for your Bengals exposure, and that is currently my favorite build tonight. If you’re doing a ton of GPP lineups then I’d be doing everything from 5-1 Bengals stacks to 3-3 builds to 5-1 Jags stacks, as there are just so many viable plays in this game and a lot will depend on if the Bengals are able to put up any kind of offense.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Travis Etienne – Assuming he’s active with no restrictions, this is just too good of a matchup and likely game script to not have him in your cash game lineup and most GPP lineups.
2. Trevor Lawrence – For under $11k, he’s just not expensive enough to consider fading in cash games, and stacking him with Etienne should cover all the offensive Jags TDs.
3. Joe Mixon – The Bengals WRs just all feel a bit risky to trust in your main build as the return of Higgins just caps the ceiling of each, so Mixon is my preferred way to get CIN exposure for cheap in cash games.
4. Christian Kirk – Ridley and Engram will certainly draw plenty of ownership and I would definitely have a good amount of exposure to both in GPPs. Still, for cash games, I like the safe volume and massive upside Kirk brings at a $1k price discount to Ridley.
5. Brandon McManus & Evan McPherson – Both are top values at $5k or less, and I think the winning lineups in any format will have at least one of them if not both.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
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