CFB Weekly Picks: Thursday/Friday
We are going to change up the format a little this week with the holiday and a little bigger weekday game set. I will be focusing in on the games on Thursday and Friday, while a25smith will pick apart the Saturday games. Unfortunately the college games don’t start until supper time on Thanksgiving, so if you want to fall asleep after stuffing your face with Thanksgiving dinner you will have to do it while watching an NFL game. The game slate we are dealing with doesn’t have your normal cast of characters to choose from, so I am guessing the scoring will be down a little and that you will have to dive into some smaller schools to make your roster.
I have always been a big advocate of targeting the small schools when they are in the game slate. You usually get a lower ownership on these players and they usually offer the best value plays week in and week out. This week I think the hardest part is going to be trying to figure out which expensive guys to spend on. I don’t see any sure-fire QBs in this game set, so that should make for a nice mix of rosters in tournaments as well as in cash games.
Here is the list of the first guys I will be targeting in my lineups:
Quarterback
Keenan Reynolds (Navy) – First off, Reynolds is only available on FanDuel this week, but he is still listed as my #1 QB. Reynolds in not your typical QB by any means – whatever he gets you through the air is completely a bonus. What Reynolds does bring to the table is running the ball around 25 times per game and getting almost all the carries near the end zone. He has multiple rushing TDs in five of the eight games Navy has played this year and has scored at least one in all but one game. In the game he didn’t have a rushing TD,, he managed to throw for two scores, which is when Notre Dame committed to stopping the run. In the six games in which he wasn’t facing a team that was clearly better than Navy, he is averaging 150 yards and 2.5 TDs per game. I think it is safe to say that South Alabama fits that description, so you can expect somewhere around 30 points on the ground and hope for a bonus 5-10 through the air.
Jesse Scroggins (Arizona) – Scroggins is probably not going to be available to you in Thursday/Friday game slates, because we still don’t know if he is starting. You are going to need to do your homework on this play and find out if Anu Solomon is going to miss this game due to injury. Scroggins wasn’t asked to do much last week when he relieved Solomon after halftime, because Arizona was having there way with a bad UNLV team. Scroggins is almost a must play on FanDuel if you find out he is starting. Arizona will have no problem using the full playbook with him under center against their rival in Arizona St. I don’t think we can expect huge numbers, but he will more than pay off his cheap salary.
Greg Ward (Houston) – Ward is not the type of player that will have huge games, but he is pretty consistent. This week he gets to face the worst team in all of FBS football in SMU. The nice thing about Ward is that even if Houston is blowing out SMU and resorts to the run, Ward should still be involved in those play calls. He averages about 12 carries a game, and against SMU that could very easily convert into 100 yards and a TD. I think multiple TDs is almost a sure thing for Ward, and 3-4 wouldn’t surprise me a bit.
Other Options: Brandon Doughty (Western Kentucky), Reggie Bell (Eastern Michigan), Shane Carden (East Carolina)
Running Back
Nick Wilson (Arizona) – Wilson isn’t getting much love in fantasy circles this year and I am not sure why. He has five games this year in which he was the lead back and received more than 20 carries. In those games, he is averaging 165 yards and has 8 total TDs. Wilson was splitting carries with Jones-Grigsby earlier this year, but he has emerged as the clear-cut #1 RB and should be in line for 20+ carries again this week. He has nice upside, but offers a high floor as well, making him a good play in both tournaments and cash games.
Jarvion Franklin (Western Michigan) – Franklin’s price has came down considerably since he was last available in the game set. He got injured in a game a couple of weeks ago and then they eased him back into the game flow with only 18 carries last week. Those two factors have driven his price down way to low. He should be back at full strength this week and I expect him to get back to around 30 carries in this game. Plain and simple: this guy is just way too cheap to not roster him. I will be playing him in all my lineups where he is available.
Devon Johnson (Marshall) – Johnson is one of those guys that just isn’t getting the fantasy love he has deserved this year. He is consistently underowned for how good he is. I think that is mainly due to the fact everybody is scared that Cato might have one of his games from past years and throw for 400 yards and 5 TDs. I think this is a week in which you can really consider rostering him with the low amount of high-end RBs in this game set. The fact he is playing in a game with a O/U hovering around 75 helps too.
Other Options: Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska), Kenneth Farrow (Houston), Zach Langer (Tulsa)
Wide Receiver
Tommy Shuler (Marshall) – Shuler has been a major disappointment this year, but has been turning around his play the last month or so. I was playing Shuler way too much earlier this year, thinking the Cato to Shuler magic would come back. I think so many people have soured on Shuler that you will get him with a low ownership %. He is a high-volume receiver playing with a very good QB in a game that sports a 75 point O/U. I think you will want some part of this guy in your lineups.
Bud Sasser (Missouri) – Sasser has to be the most under-appreciated player in all of daily CFB. He keeps producing every week, yet his salary never goes up. He had a mini two-game slump midseason but has been very solid the rest of the year. He is clearly the #1 receiver is this offense and should post another solid game. For the price he is versus the production he brings to the table, I find myself putting him into most of my lineups.
Jaelen Strong (Arizona St) – Strong is a great receiver and one that we probably be underowned this week due to his recent injury. He should be back at full strength this week and should be one of the focal points in the Arizona St offense. I think this game against in-state rival Arizona is going to turn into a high-scoring affair. You will want a piece of this Arizona St offense and Strong might be the best option.
Other Options: Jordan Payton (UCLA), Deontay Greenberry (Houston), Willie McNeal (Western Kentucky)
Tight End
Jake Duzey (Iowa) – Duzey has been playing very well lately, scoring double-digit points in four of the last five games. He offers nice upside and along with a nice floor, making him a good play in both cash and GPP games.
Hunter Henry (Arkansas) – Henry has found himself a little more involved in the Arkansas offense than he was early this year. Arkansas in general has opened up the offense the second half of this year, and Henry is probably benefiting as much as anyone. There is not a lot of options at TE in these game sets, making Henry a nice option.