PGA DFS Core Plays: Valspar Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
THE PLAYERS Championship went about as well as the PGA TOUR could have dreamed. It provided an exciting finish, and ultimately, the best golfer on the planet won. Scottie Scheffler not only won back-to-back events, but he became the first golfer to ever win THE PLAYERS in back-to-back years. I was holding a Xander Schauffele ticket, so the Sunday didn’t pan out as I had hoped, but I still had a tremendous time watching the event. While I will miss TPC Sawgrass, I won’t miss having to capitalize the name of the tournament.
We now head to Palm Harbor for the final event of the Florida swing. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a Par 71 that measures 7,340 yards. This course is different than most Par 71 courses, as it features four par 5s and five par 3s. This course is also different than most Florida courses, as the fairways are tree-lined and there are plenty of elevation changes. It looks and plays a lot more like a Carolina course than a typical Florida course.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Valspar Championship
The fairways at the Copperhead Course are narrow (30 yards wide on average) and are difficult to hit on average. In 2023, the average driving distance at this event was only 280 yards, which is quite low for a PGA TOUR event. This is one of the few weeks where accuracy is more important than distance. That said, I still want my golfers to be able to take advantage of the four par 5s, so I prefer total driving as my favorite off-the-tee metric this week.
The greens here are small (5,800 square feet on average) and feature bermudagrass with poa trivialis overseed. The field only hit 54% of greens in regulation last year, and we have plenty of wind in the forecast this week. This places a major emphasis on around-the-green play. When it comes to approach shots, we can expect about 50% of them to come from at least 175 yards. There aren’t nearly as many wedges as we see at most venues.
Given the difficulty of the course, the weather forecast, and the fact that Paul Casey has won here twice, I will be looking to strong tee-to-green golfers this week. There is usually a trade-off between ball striking and putting, so I don’t mind targeting golfers who struggle a bit with the flatstick. This strategy takes me back to the early days of PGA DFS.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Valspar Championship
Field Size:
- 155 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
TPC Sawgrass
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Par 71 — 7,340 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (7th), 2022 (29th), 2021 (20th), 2020 (N/A), 2019 (6th)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 9
- Fairway width in landing areas: 26.4 yards
- Green type: bermuda with poa trivialis
- Green size: 5,800 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 280 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 54%
- - Greens in regulation = 55%
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Event and Course Notes
- This is the final stretch of the Florida swing, but it plays a bit different
- Plays more like a Carolina course: tree-lined fairways and elevation changes
- Not as many penalty strokes this week, but hitting fairways is very important
- The course is a Par 71 but it features four Par 5s and five Par 3s
- Features the famous “Snake Pit,” which is a very difficult 3-hole closing stretch
- Typically a firm and fast test of golf; regularly one of the 10 toughest courses on TOUR
- Tight off the tee, which is why driving distance is so low here (many club-down holes)
- Greens are difficult to hit in regulation, which places a major emphasis on short game
- Very few wedge opportunities: 50% of approach shots from from 175+ yards
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained around the green
- Bogey avoidance
- Total driving
- Strokes gained putting
Core Plays
Doug Ghim
DraftKings: $8,400 / pOWN: 21%
FanDuel: $9,700 / pOWN: 22%
Total Driving: 16
Strokes Gained Approach: 23
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 34
Strokes Gained Putting: 74
Birdie or Better %: 45
Bogey Avoidance: 6
To be honest, you can make a strong case for any of the expensive golfers this week, which is why my core plays are both in the mid-range. Ghim has rattled off five straight top 20 finishes on TOUR and has gained over 20 strokes ball striking in the process. He’s a good total driver of the ball, he’s excellent on approach, he’s underrated around the green, and he’s been putting well this year. He’s also one of the best in the field when it comes to avoiding bogeys, which is always a positive on difficult golf courses. He grades out as the 6th-best play in my model this week, yet he’s the 16th-most expensive on DraftKings and 21st-most expensive on FanDuel.
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