PGA DFS GPP Breakdown: Valspar Championship
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, breaks down his top PGA DFS picks in various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Which golfers should you be targeting to try and take down the big DFS tournaments? Find out below!
Greetings, Grinders! We are back with another Florida swing event this week, with the Valspar Championship on the calendar for us. We have a relatively weak field for this event, as it does not have the new “elevated status” compared to a few of the other Florida tournaments. This gives us a bit of a letdown factor for DFS, especially when you consider how strong fields have been over the past month. However, there is still plenty of money up for grabs in DFS, and everyone is playing with the same player pool!
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As for the tournament itself, this event will be played at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. This is a very difficult par 71 layout, but it does not fit the traditional par 71 that would have three par fives and four par threes. This course actually has four par fives and five par threes, which is not something you often see. However, the par fives are no pushover, as they often average among the hardest sets of par fives that we see regularly on the PGA Tour. There are generally no “easy” holes around this place. As we see with most challenging courses, accuracy, ball striking, and approach play are of prime importance. Rostering players who are strong with their long irons is a primary objective, as there will be many approach shots hit from 150+ yards. Golfers who can scramble and avoid bogeys also get a nice bump, as the greens are small, and par is a fine score here. Expect the scoring average to be around 1.50 to 1.75 over par on average in the absence of extreme weather. Total driving will be another metric I value quite a bit this week, as the rough is thick and penalizing on this course, so good driving is yet another strong skill to have at Copperhead.
Let’s get to some of my favorite GPP picks for this week!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Breakdown for the Valspar Championship
Justin Thomas
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $11,900
Yahoo: $39
If you are looking for the safest choice at the top of the board this week, it’s probably Xander Schauffele. However, if you are looking for upside, I prefer starting lineups with Thomas. His missed cut last week will likely scare some people away, but he only missed by a couple of strokes. If we look at some data per the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf, we see that Thomas still ranks 3rd in tee to green play, 5th in approach play, and 6th in ball striking over the past 24 rounds. He also has finishes of 13th or better in each of the last three editions of this event. I’m in.