NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Ravens-Chargers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Ravens at Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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The 4-6 Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives, hosting the 8-3 Ravens who are looking to expand their AFC North division lead. Even with Mark Andrews out, it’s going to be a challenge for Los Angeles to keep pace with Baltimore, especially if Jalen Guyton and/or Gerald Everett end up out, as both are questionable. Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, and Charlie Kolar are all questionable for the Ravens, although the former two are expected to play.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Ravens at Chargers Week 12
Currently, this game is sitting at a 48.5 total, with the Ravens favored by 3 points. Baltimore has been held under 30 points in four of their five road games this year, plus with Andrews out and a couple guys questionable, this spread is probably closer than it would have been if this game were in Baltimore and/or Andrews was playing. The Chargers have also been much better at home this year, with 30+ points scored in each of their last two home games, but they are against a Ravens defense allowing just 15.4 points per contest. I think Baltimore should win, and it’s going to take a big game from someone like Johnston or Guyton to keep this game close.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($12,000) is easily my favorite captain play and should be a cash game lock, as he gets to face a Chargers defense allowing the most passing yards per game in the league at 291.6. The only negative on Lamar here is that he’s scored just under 3 FPPG less on the road and will be without his top target Andrews, but he still has plenty of weapons and can always take over a game with his legs, so I would not be looking to fade him in any format.
Justin Herbert ($11,000) has gone for 20+ FP in all but two games this year, but he’ll have a tough test here, as the Ravens defense ranks 3rd in total yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed. Herbert has scored just under 4 additional FPPG at home this year and still has Ekeler and Allen at his disposable, so with a 22.75 team total and the absolutely must-win nature of this game for the Chargers, I would still be looking to fit him in cash games.
Running Back
Justice Hill ($1,600) has seen just four total touches over the last two weeks and is just a GPP flier, while Gus Edwards ($8,600) and Keaton Mitchell ($6,800) have taken over this backfield. Both are worth plenty of GPP exposure. Mitchell has the big play upside we are looking for in tournaments, so I prefer him there. Edwards has been a touchdown machine since Week 7, scoring nine TDs in his last five games, making him my preferred cash game target in an average matchup for RBs.
Austin Ekeler ($10,000) only saw three targets last week, and the Chargers lost by three points, so I think they’ll get him going early and often here. He should get back to his usual 7+ targets and 15+ rush attempts. I definitely prefer going with Ekeler over any of the Ravens RBs if you are already using both QBs in cash games and can only fit one RB, and if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) I would have plenty of Ekeler captain lineups.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen ($11,200) will easily get the most targets in this game, but will also draw the most attention from this tough Ravens defense, so as the second priciest option surrounded by other top expensive plays, Allen isn’t a cash game priority for me. He’s always a top GPP play and should be on any lineup you build without Ekeler for max leverage, but the price, matchup, and overall lineup construction will likely keep him from making my main build. Jalen Guyton ($2,400) and Quentin Johnston ($3,000) are the Chargers WRs I’d be targeting, as they’ll really help you fit in 3-4 expensive players and both should see 4+ targets.
The Ravens’ target shares are usually pretty spread out when Andrews is active, but with him out Zay Flowers ($8,000) should be looking at a nice target boost against the last-ranked pass defense, so he’s easily my favorite Baltimore skill player to stack with Lamar. Odell Beckham ($6,200) has been solid over the last three games and should be on some GPP stacks, but he’s still a bit too pricey to trust in cash games. I will also only target Bateman ($4,000) and Agholor ($2,200) in GPPs.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely ($5,200) is the next man up at TE, but he’s just too expensive to use outside of GPPs, as we saw his floor last game of 0 catches on 2 targets even after Andrews left the game early.
The Chargers TEs are also off my radar in cash games, as Everett ($4,800) is expected to play, which makes Parham ($4,400) a risky option as well.
Defense / Special Teams
I’m not interested in the LAC DST ($3,800) today, but the BAL DST ($4,200) has some GPP appeal. Justin Tucker ($5,400) is my favorite cash game play under $6,000 as he should be good for 8+ FP, especially kicking in great weather. Cameron Dicker ($5,000) is also a fine cash game option, as he’s gone for 7+ FP in five straight games.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
There are so many possible lineup builds tonight, but I think going 4-2 or 3-3 in cash games and most GPP lineups is the way to go, as this should be a pretty competitive game. Both QBs and Ekeler are my priority spends, and the cheap LAC WRs along with Tucker makes a really strong lineup with a high floor and ceiling combo.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson – Top captain play and the first guy I’m locking in to cash games.
2. Austin Ekeler – After only seeing 12 touches in a three-point loss last week, he should get fed a ton this game, especially through the air. I like him over Allen today.
3. Justin Herbert – Even against a top defense, I think he finds a way to 20+ FP, and stacking him with Ekeler and a cheap WR or two is my favorite LAC exposure.
4. Justin Tucker – Best cash game play under $6,000, and I don’t mind using him as captain in some GPP lineups.
5. Quentin Johnston / Jalen Guyton – Both are $3,000 or less and should see 4+ targets, making them top point-per-dollar cash game targets to stack with Herbert.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
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