TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 3
Week 2 is in the books and it’s time to get ready for Week 3. Hopefully everyone profited last week as there were several plays from each position that went off led by Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Gio Bernard, and Delanie Walker. An underused strategy I will probably use this week is rolling out 2 TE’s. There are a lot of them I like in good matchups with huge upside and they are underpriced compared to plugging in a stud RB or WR at the flex spot. One of the tools I use to help me spot underpriced players is the NFL Market Watch Tool. Finding bargains allows for tremendous flexibility throughout the rest of your roster with the salary you are saving. Good luck to everyone in Week 3.
QB
Top Plays of the Week
Matthew Stafford – $8800 – Most people will pony up the extra $100 for Brees this week but I’m going with Stafford. I love taking the Lions at home, especially when they are in the highest over/under game of the week. The Packers defense has not looked very good thus far and I expect the Stafford/Johnson combo to be clicking. Stafford is my top QB of the week.
Jay Cutler – $8100 – If you want to save a little bit of cash, I have Cutler right behind Stafford. The Jets run defense is impenetrable, which forces teams to throw the ball more than normal. Luckily for Cutler, the Jets secondary is awful and he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. We took advantage of this matchup last week with Rodgers and Nelson and I expect similar results this week from Cutler and the Bears.
Phillip Rivers – $7100 – Rivers consistently flies under the radar. He was a top 6 QB last year and is off to another good start this year. With Ryan Matthews injured, I expect the Chargers to rely more heavily on the passing game. The Bills are a decent defense but I think Rivers, Allen, and Gates can expose their secondary. Plug in Rivers at a great price knowing he will be under owned and expect great results.
Russell Wilson – $6800 – Wilson was a top 10 QB last year, is a top 10 QB so far this year, and yet is priced lower than Tom Brady this week. On top of that, he gets a dream matchup at home against the Broncos who have given up the most points to opposing QB’s so far this year after being near the bottom last year. Wilson can score points with both his arm and legs and has massive upside this week in what Vegas has pegged a top 5 scoring matchup.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Drew Brees – $8900 – While I don’t think Brees will truly bust, I am a little nervous this game gets out of hand limiting his upside. It happened against the Pats last week and Brady ended up throwing only 21 passes. The spread is over 10 and I think the Saints will cover that easy after watching the Vikings offense struggle mightily last week without Adrian Peterson. The boom factor is definitely there if the Vikings can stay in the game into the 4th quarter as Brees lights it up at home almost every game.
Salary Saver of the Week
Ryan Tannehill – $6300 – Tannehill has not been too impressive to start the season. I do like him a lot this week at home against a struggling Chiefs defense though. They were bottom 10 last year against the QB and have been even worse so far this year. The main reason I like Tannehill though is because of the injuries in Miami’s backfield. With Moreno out and the rest of the backfield shaky, Tannehill threw it a career high 49 times last week. If he can even get close to that type of volume this week, Tannehill could have a huge game.
RB
Top Plays of the Week
Arian Foster – $7500 – I am loving what I’m seeing out of Foster so far this year so he gets a top play recommendation for the 3rd straight week. He looks like the Arian of old and is putting up huge numbers. He’s averaging close to 30 touches a game and with a back this talented touching the ball that much, good things are going to happen. The Giants D doesn’t scare me at all and I expect another monster week out of Foster.
Alfred Morris – $6200 – Morris also looks very good again this year. With RG3 out, I think the Redskins will try and slow this game down against the Eagles. That’s where Morris comes in. This same Eagles defense is coming off a short week and were shredded for 149 yards on the ground by Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw Monday night. If those 2 can put up those type of numbers it’s hard to imagine what Morris can do with a heavy workload.
Zac Stacy – $5600 – Everyone threw in the towel on Stacy after Week 1 but he proved he was still fantasy relevant last week. I love the matchup this week at home against Dallas who’s run defense numbers are a bit skewed because of Tennessee’s terrible showing last week. They were the worst in the league last year and Stacy will start that exposure again this week.
Rashad Jennings – $5200* – Outside of Larry Donnell, Jennings has been the lone bright spot on the Giants offense so far this year. He’s getting 21 touches a game which includes 4 receptions in each game. The Texans defense gave up 6.5 YPC to Alfred Morris in Week 1 so I think this weak Giants offensive line should be able to create some space for Jennings to run. For this price and the guaranteed volume he is going to see you can hardly go wrong.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Trent Richardson – $5000 – I can’t believe I’m actually recommending T-Rich but that’s what happens when you see the Jags on the schedule. Richardson “went off” for 79 yards last week and actually looked like a competent RB. The Jags have been the worst D against opposing RB’s so far this season after being terrible last year as well. Richardson could be in store for a heavy workload if the Colts get up early and big numbers could follow.
Salary Saver of the Week
Khiry Robinson – $3900 – Robinson could be the main beneficiary if this game gets out of hand early. With Mark Ingram out Robinson will be in line to carry much of the load along with Pierre Thomas. He was getting 7 carries a game before the Ingram injury and I could see that ballooning to over 20 this week if this game goes like I think it does. I have a feeling he will be highly owned and for good reason so fade at your own risk.
WR
Top Plays of the Week
Jordy Nelson – $8400 – Nelson flashed his upside last week and has similar upside this week in an anticipated shoot out. Nelson’s price tag jumped a whopping $1800 this week and is now the 2nd highest priced WR. That’s why I like him this week. I don’t see a lot of people paying this price tag when Brandon Marshall is sitting there for $100 less in a “better” matchup. Get Nelson in your lineup again this week.
Demaryius Thomas – $6600 – Thomas is the most intriguing player of the week for me. There’s no reason his price should ever be this low but that’s what playing in Seattle does I guess. I expect this game to be played much closer than the Super Bowl, and even if it’s not, Thomas still managed to have a huge game going for 13 catches back in February. I think most will be scared off by the matchup but I’m going to take advantage of a player this talented in the best offense in the league at this price tag.
Keenan Allen – $6000 – Allen’s had 2 touch matchups against Arizona and Seattle to start the season and hasn’t done a whole lot thus far. His price is down because of that and it’s time to take advantage in his first decent matchup of the season. I like the Chargers passing game a lot this week with the anticipated increase volume I expect with the Matthews injury. Allen is in line for his first breakout game of the 2014 campaign.
Mike Wallace – $5800 – Wallace is off to a great start this season despite his longest reception being only 22 yards. He’s found the end zone in each game and seems to have a good chemistry going with Tannehill. I like Wallace and the Dolphins passing game for the same reasons I like the Chargers due to the anticipated increase in volume. The Dolphins, however, draw the better matchup on paper.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Cordarrelle Patterson – $6100 – Patterson’s boom factor comes from his uncanny ability to break the big play. He can find the end zone any time he touches the ball and is a very dangerous runner when the ball is in his hands. This Saints D hasn’t been very good this year and if the Vikings can find some ways to get him the ball in space he is primed for a big day. Unfortunately last week they didn’t give him a single carry and he just isn’t that polished of a receiver yet to be consistent relying only on his receiving stats.
Salary Saver of the Week
Cecil Shorts – $4800 – The Jags are all sorts of beat up at WR and TE. Shorts is coming back from a hamstring injury himself but it looks like he will be a go this week against the Colts. The Colts defense has been awful this year, albeit against two good offenses, but there should be some points to be had for this Jags offense. Shorts has been solid when he’s played and should see a ton of looks this week as Chad Henne’s main target.
TE
Top Plays of the Week
Julius Thomas – $6600 – I don’t expect Thomas to have a high ownership this weekend being the 2nd highest priced TE playing in Seattle. There’s certainly risk anytime you take a player playing in Seattle but Julius is worth that risk. Antonio Gates torched this defense for 3 TD’s last week and Thomas has that same kind of upside. Get Thomas in your lineups this week and reap the benefits.
Vernon Davis – $5000 – If Davis only has 1 healthy ankle I’d still consider playing him this week against Arizona. In their first matchup last year Davis went for 8/180/2. Arizona is still struggling against the TE this year and Davis is one of the most talented in the game to make them pay. If he is deemed healthy and suits up Sunday, don’t be afraid to use him in your flex spot if you want to play another TE as well. He has that kind of upside.
Dennis Pitta – $4400 – Pitta had a disappointing Week 2 after seeing heavy volume in Week 1. He gets a good matchup this week in Cleveland against a Browns team that got schooled by Jimmy Graham last week. Graham is obviously the best “pass catcher” in football, but with the Ravens unlikely to have much success in the running game, I think they’ll feed Pitta early and often.
Travis Kelce – $3700 – We keep hearing the Chiefs are going to get this guy on the field more and the injury to Jamaal Charles might just force their hand. He is good talent and despite seeing limited snap counts, has put up decent numbers 2 weeks into the season averaging over 18 YPC on his 7 receptions. I think this week could be his breakout game against a Dolphins D that is below average defending the TE.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Charles Clay – $3500 – Clay is the last piece of the Dolphins passing game I like this week for much the same reasons I like Tannehill and Wallace. He should see a good amount of targets and while he hasn’t gotten off to a good start yet this year, he’s shown his big game ability in the past.
Salary Saver of the Week
Jared Cook – $3400 – I love Jared Cook this week. The Cowboys defense as a whole hasn’t been as bad as anticipated yet this season, but they have been absolutely dreadful against the TE. Delanie Walker had a career day last week after Vernon Davis went for 2 TD’s in Week 1 without even breaking a sweat. They were bottom 3 last year against the TE so this should come as no surprise. Cook’s consistency has always been a question mark but I think he’s worth a roll of the dice this week at home against this Dallas defense.