TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays: Week 6
Another week and another millionaire will be made. We had some hits last week (P. Manning, A. Ellington, V. Jackson, J. Thomas) and hope to keep it going this week. The point of this article each week is to try and pinpoint high-upside plays that I think will be low owned. If you saw the winning roster last week in the Millionaire Maker, he did exactly that with both of his RBs being under 1% owned, which is incredible.
There’s a reason players are low owned (price, matchup, injury, etc.), but if you hit the right ones, you gain a huge edge on the field. Hopefully you’ll find a couple of those in the article this week. Good luck!
QB
Top Plays of the Week
Aaron Rodgers – $8400 – Rodgers is coming off a “down” game and draws a “tough” matchup in Miami this week. For those following closely, you know neither of those are true despite what the numbers might suggest. Rodgers was limited in a blowout last week and the Dolphins have faced some terrible QBs thus far. Rodgers is my #1 QB this week for the price. I hope most are scared off for the perceived tough matchup and I expect most to pay $200 more for Matt Ryan in what’s expected to be the highest scoring game of the week.
Eli Manning – $7800 – My initial thoughts were true last week. Despite a matchup against the “least talented” defense in the league, Eli was under 6% owned in the Millionaire Maker. People just don’t trust/like Eli. He didn’t go off, but the same potential is in place this week. He gets a matchup against an Eagles D surrendering the 2nd most points to opposing QBs. Price-wise he is in a perfect position this week, as I expect the QBs priced right above (Cutler) and below (Wilson) him to be very popular choices this week. Eli has just as much if not more upside as both of them.
Kirk Cousins – $6700 – I recommended Cousins last week against Seattle and I like him again this week. I think Arizona will focus on shutting down Alfred Morris, forcing Cousins to beat them with his arm. Luckily for him, he will be facing an overrated Cardinals secondary that gave up 36 points to Peyton Manning last week. I’m certainly not saying Cousins is Peyton Manning, but that type of upside is certainly there with the weapons in the Washington pass game.
Austin Davis – $6400 – This kid is playing some good football and he is putting up huge fantasy numbers while doing it. He’s averaging 45 attempts per game and 3 TDs over the last two weeks. His price is up slightly, but he is certainly still affordable. While his last two weeks have been against weaker defenses, he will be facing his toughest matchup to date against San Francisco. The masses will be off him because of that, giving you a great opportunity to take advantage.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Nick Foles – $6800 – Foles saw his price tag plummet $1700 after back-to-back mediocre performances. The entire Eagles offense isn’t putting up the type of numbers most expected, but one of the biggest reasons for that is their defensive/special teams TDs. They’ve scored seven so far this year, which puts the opposing offense right back on the field, contributing to Philly’s league low time of possession per game. I’ll take my chances with Foles at this price tag in what is expected to be the second highest scoring game of the week on Sunday night.
Salary Saver of the Week
Geno Smith – $5500 – Obviously things aren’t going well for the Jets offense after getting shut out in San Diego last week. What does that mean for this week? Nobody will be on Geno in a plus matchup. Eric Decker sat out last week, so hopefully he will get his top target back this week. You know the Broncos are going to put up points, so the Jets will be forced to throw. After Mike Vick admitted he wasn’t prepared last week, I don’t expect him to play. That should give Smith a full game. While his points may not be meaningful, look for Smith to rack up points in garbage time with both his arm and his legs.
RB
Top Plays of the Week
DeMarco Murray – $7600 – If McCoy or Charles were putting up the type of numbers Murray were, their price would be well over $9000, probably pushing $10,000. For whatever reason, Murray’s price refuses to rise. He’s been unreal, and the biggest reason I like him this week is because despite his low price, most will be off him because of the matchup. Seattle is still a top-notch defense but they aren’t as good as advertised. Plug in Murray and expect another huge performance at a discounted price and low ownership.
Justin Forsett – $6100 – Forsett has the perfect price point this week. Who is really going to spend $100 more on Justin Forsett than LeSean McCoy? Not many people. That’s why he makes a great play this week. Forsett is the only stable cog in the Baltimore backfield and gets a great matchup this week in Tampa. He’s averaged over 20 PPG the last two weeks and I think he’ll exceed that this week.
Ben Tate- $5500 – Much like Forsett, Tate has a perfect price point to take advantage of. At $5500, I expect most people will opt for Branden Oliver after his huge game last week. Cleveland is clearly intent on running the ball and Tate is the focal point as evidenced last week. He played 2/3 of the snaps and handled red zone duties as well. The Browns carved up the Steelers run defense in Week 1 and I expect much of the same this week. Look for Tate to have a monster game.
Frank Gore – $4800 – Frank Gore is consistently underowned and I’ll admit I don’t roll him out that often either. He isn’t a factor in the passing game, which is why most are turned off. Despite that I think he makes a great play this week at his price point. He’s gone over 100 yards in back-to-back weeks, averaging over 20 PPG. St. Louis has also given up the most runs of 10+ yards in the league. Plug Gore in this week and watch your team jump up the leaderboard on Monday night.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
LeSean McCoy – $6000 – It’s pretty hard to believe McCoy has been relegated to the boom-or-bust slot this far into the season. That’s what happens when you are averaging just 5 PPG over the last three weeks. It’s really hard to ignore him at $6000 though. He’s owned the Giants in the past, and like I stated in the Foles blurb, the Eagles offense has been hurt by their defense/special teams TDs. They’ve been unable to run a lot of plays at a high pace, which would enable them to wear down the opposing defense in the second half. If the game flows in their favor this week, McCoy could be the ultimate boom.
Salary Saver of the Week
Joique Bell – $3700 – If Reggie Bush is unable to go, Bell will be a popular play. Bell got off to a decent start to the season but has struggled in his last two games before missing last week with a concussion. He comes back in a great matchup against a Vikings D that gave up over 31 points to Eddie Lacy last week. He’s a good play this week at a great price.
WR
Top Plays of the Week
Jordy Nelson $7700 – If I like Aaron Rodgers, obviously I’m going to like Jordy Nelson this week. Again in a perceived “difficult” matchup, the Rodgers/Nelson pairing is my favorite of the week. Nelson is very affordable for a player with his high floor and ceiling. He’s top 3 in targets and PPG, so there’s not much not to like in what is expected to be a high-scoring, close game.
Dez Bryant – $6600 – For those that played baseball this year, you saw salaries rise dramatically whenever a game was being played in Coors Field. I feel like the same thing is going on here just in the opposite direction against all of Seattle’s opponents. Dez is coming off a 23-point performance yet his price dropped by $1200. Seattle has not been a shutdown defense this year and ranks in the bottom half against opposing WRs so far. The perception of Seattle’s D will likely allow Dez to be a low-owned commodity at a great price and a high-upside option.
Brian Quick – $5800 – I really like the Davis/Quick combo again this week. You get a ton of upside at a very affordable price. Like I stated in the Davis write up, I expect ownership numbers to be small because of the matchup. Quick hasn’t had a week under 14 points so far this year and I don’t expect that to be the case this week either. Quick is clearly the #1 target in what has become a very high-volume passing game.
Roddy White – $4800 – White is my first writeup from the game I expect the highest number of players to be targeted. The reason I like White is because most will automatically gravitate towards Julio if they want exposure to the Atlanta passing game. White can be had at nearly half the cost. With fireworks expected in this game, White is a great value play this week with enormous upside.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
DeSean Jackson – $4900 – Always a candidate for this spot, Jackson has defined this category over the last four weeks, posting point totals of 3, 26, 2, and 30. He can either kill a great team or take them to the top of the leaderboard. I really like the matchup this week against what has been a bad Cardinals secondary. I think Jackson may buck his trend of bad weeks following good weeks on Sunday.
Salary Saver of the Week
Marcus Wheaton – $3800 – Wheaton gets a good matchup this week in Cleveland against a Browns secondary that is expected to be without Joe Haden. That will likely force struggling rookie Justin Gilbert into covering Wheaton. He couldn’t handle Wheaton in Week 1 when they matched up, and I don’t expect a different result this week.
TE
Top Plays of the Week
Julius Thomas – $6700 – I was surprised to see Thomas only 10% owned last week. With him being the highest-priced option on the board, we may see similar ownership numbers this week. Believe it or not, Thomas is actually tied with Owen Daniels in targets for the season. Thomas is just so efficient when he does get targeted. He’s leading the NFL in TD receptions and has had two huge weeks so far. Don’t be surprised if he makes it three against a struggling Jets pass defense.
Rob Gronkowski – $5700 – Gronk is the main reason I think Thomas may be underowned. He looked like the old Gronk last week by going for 100 yards and a TD. At a $1000 discount to Thomas, I expect most to gravitate towards him. He’s owned Buffalo in the past, catching a TD in every career game against them. Fade at your own risk.
Delanie Walker – $5300 – Walker’s price surprisingly shot up $1000 despite a mediocre performance last week. I think he makes a great play this week because of it. Like I just said, I expect Gronk to be highly owned, so most will pay up for him instead of Walker. Walker gets a great matchup against a Jags D that is giving up a ton of points to opposing TEs. Walker is getting targeted at high rate and I expect a huge week for him on Sunday.
Larry Donnell – $3500 – Donnell finally came back to earth last week, posting a goose egg on just one target. That may make some believe his Week 1-4 performances were a fluke, but I’m not one of those people. I think Donnell is a great place to get exposure to the Giants passing game. His price dropped $2200 from last week and now he’s in the game with the second highest over/under of the week. I’ll take my chances we see the Week 1-4 version of Donnell on Sunday night at a huge discount.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Martellus Bennett – $5500 – Bennett will almost surely be low owned this week. He’s coming off a five-point performance and now gets a matchup against a Falcons D that can’t stop anything but tight ends. He’s been mostly boom this year, but history suggest he is a boom-or-bust player. Of tight ends going this week, he leads all of them in targets and is secnd in points. I love his upside in the highest-scoring game of the week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Jordan Reed – $3200 – Reed is on track to play this week and it comes at the perfect time. He draws the matchup against Arizona that we love to exploit with our TEs. He’s heavily discounted for a player of his production when healthy. He has just one catch on the season, and the injury factor along with the presence of Niles Paul will likely scare most people off. This is a great spot to get a high-upside player at a heavy discount in a great matchup.