TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 8
Another week and again another DraftKings Millionaire will be made. In order to take down a GPP, you will generally have to have a couple players that have huge weeks that are very low owned. The point of this article each week is to try and pin point high upside plays that I think will be low owned. I may also point out a player that I think will be highly owned that you may look to fade in hopes he has a bad week. There’s a reason players are low owned (price, matchup, injury, etc.) but if you hit the right ones, you gain a huge edge on the field. Hopefully you’ll find a couple of those in the article this week. Good luck!
QB
Top Plays of the Week
Andrew Luck – $9700 – Luck provides a great pivot to Aaron Rodgers this week and he surprisingly comes at a discount of $200. On paper, this looks like a difficult matchup as the Steelers come into this game as the 3rd best defense against opposing QBs. When you dig a little deeper, that’s likely a factor of their opponents (Hoyer twice, Bortles, Glennon, Cam, Flacco, and Fitzpatrick). Luck’s just a tad better than those guys. He’s throwing it 40+ times every game and is pretty much a lock for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs. Luck’s a great place to start building your lineups.
Tony Romo – $7400 – Romo’s been heating up, going for 22+ points in three of the last four weeks and now gets a matchup against a Washington team that is one of the bottom three in the league against opposing QB’s. A big reason they are susceptible through the air is because teams have had trouble finding success in the running game. They are giving up just 3.8 YPC and have only allowed three TD’s (5th best) on the season despite facing the 10th most attempts in the league. I’d expect them to try and contain Murray as best they can which should open things up for Romo. If the Redskins can keep this game somewhat close, I’d expect Romo to stay hot with a big game.
Ryan Tannehill – $6700 – Tannehill gets the matchup we look to exploit each week against Jacksonville. He’s been playing well lately and the biggest reason for his recent uptick in fantasy numbers (20+ points last three weeks) is his ability to gain yards on the ground. He’s averaging 44 YPG rushing over his last three, which is equivalent to a passing TD. The Dolphins are calling designed runs to get him in space and it’s clearly working. He’s also doing damage through the air throwing two TDs in each of those games as well. Tannehill will keep it going on Sunday.
Kyle Orton – $6300 – Orton’s throwing the ball much more than I thought he would after taking over the starting job. He’s averaging 41 attempts per game and I’d expect him to exceed that this week against the Jets. With their top two running backs out and going against a stout Jets run D, I don’t think the Bills will have any success running the ball which should force Orton into throwing it a lot. I love the matchup and think Orton will go under the radar with the plethora of options priced right around him this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Russell Wilson – $8400 – Wilson was the play of the week last week and I think a lot of people will fire him up this week. Wilson certainly has the upside to take down a GPP as he flashed last week, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 300 and run for 100 in the same game. My only concern is that he is very dependent on his rushing numbers. In the four games that he didn’t rush for 100 yards, Wilson’s averaging less than 18 PPG. The matchup is good again this week so I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him have another monster day.
Salary Saver of the Week
Teddy Bridgewater – $5100 – Tampa Bay has been getting shredded the past four weeks, giving up 39 PPG while allowing 331 YPG through the air. Bridgewater’s struggled the last two weeks, but he showed what can do against Atlanta in his first start where he put up 26 fantasy points. I think he has that type of upside again this week. If you want to load up elsewhere, Bridgewater is your guy this week at QB.
RB
Top Plays of the Week
Arian Foster – $8400 – With the pricing structure this week, I’d expect Foster to be the lowest owned of the top three backs by a decent sized margin. That’s fine with me because he’s the cheapest of the three and he’s also my favorite play. As I mentioned in the Romo blurb, I think Murray may have his first ordinary game of the year. As for Forte, I’d expect Belichick to focus on shutting him down and make Jay Cutler beat them. That leaves us with Foster, who’s been on fire the past 3 weeks, averaging 30 PPG. I like his matchup and expect him to be the #1 RB this week.
Jamaal Charles – $6700 – It feels like Charles is getting close to that breakout game where if you don’t have him, you have no chance of winning. I think that game may come this week. The Rams have been pretty solid against the run, but Charles is matchup proof. At this price, it’s really hard to pass so I’d expect him to be highly owned. Fade at your own risk.
Lamar Miller – $6000 – Miller’s been a favorite play of mine this year and that’s not going to change this week. He finally eclipsed the 15 carry mark for the first time last week and if he does that again Sunday against Jacksonville, I’d expect a very big game. He’s getting all of the red zone work and has produced four TD’s over his last three games. He’s a factor in the passing game as well. Miller’s a great pivot off of Le’Veon Bell this week.
Justin Forsett – $5100 – Forsett was a popular play last week and largely left his owners disappointed after putting up only nine points. I think he makes a great play again this week as most will be hesitant to roll him out after last week. The key part of last week is he received 23 carries, which was nine more than his previous high this season. If he gets close to that many this week, I’d be shocked if put up another dud. The Bengals are having trouble stopping opposing RB’s. I’ll be going back to the well with Forsett this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Shane Vereen – $6200 – Outside of Gronk, I very rarely play any Patriots because they are so hard to predict. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vereen looked at Belichick wrong and for some reason played only five snaps. That’s just how the Patriots operate. If you do roll Vereen out, he showed you last week what he’s capable of. He flashed that type of upside last year on numerous occasions as well, so you know it wasn’t a fluke. If Vereen plays a majority of the snaps, he could certainly duplicate last week’s effort.
Salary Saver of the Week
Ben Tate – $4600 – Much like Forsett, Tate left a bad taste in a lot of owner’s mouths last week by putting up a whopping four points in a plus matchup at Jacksonville. He returns home to Cleveland this week and draws another plus matchup against the Raiders. Brian Hoyer was terrible last week so the Browns offense couldn’t get anything going. I’d expect a rebound game from Hoyer which will help open up the running game. Tate will have a bounce back game and should rack up the carries in the 2nd half with Cleveland holding the lead.
WR
Top Plays of the Week
Jordy Nelson – $7800 – We’ll start the receiver recommendations with a fade at your own risk play. Nelson is priced nicely right between Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb and I think he’ll be the most popular pick for a receiver over $7000, and for good reason. Nelson’s the 2nd best WR going this week in terms of PPG and is playing in the game with the highest over/under. The only thing that’s really slowed down Nelson is the fact that the Packers have been blowing people out lately. Vegas is expecting a close game Sunday night and if that’s the case, I’d expect Nelson to be the #1 WR of the week.
T.Y. Hilton – $6800 – I had a tough time deciding between Hilton and Dez but went with Hilton because I think he will be lower owned. I love them both this week. Like I stated in the Luck blurb, the Steelers are ranked well against the pass but that’s largely because they haven’t played anyone. With Reggie Wayne and Trent Richardson possibly out, that just means more market share for Hilton. He’s established himself as one of the best fantasy receivers in the game this year and I look for that to continue Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Alshon Jeffery – $6000 – New England is currently 2nd in the league against opposing WR’s. Do yourself a favor and go look at their schedule. Not exactly murderer’s row they’ve played thus far. The assumption this week is that Revis will shadow Marshall which should leave Jeffrey in position to take advantage. He’s coming off a clunker so I don’t think many people will be on him this week. Jeffrey presents tremendous upside at his cheapest price point of the season.
Michael Floyd – $4900 – Floyd’s yet to have a true “breakout” game yet this season. He’s gone over 100 yards twice and has two TD’s but hasn’t put them together in one game. I think that will happen this Sunday in a great matchup against the Eagles. When I first looked at the receivers this week Floyd jumped off the page so I’d expect him to be heavily owned. He’s a different guy and the Cardinals are a different team with Palmer behind center. They run more plays and he is more productive. Floyd is my favorite play of the week at WR.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Jeremy Maclin – $5500 – The Eagles have been trying to establish the run over the past several weeks and it’s been hurting Maclin. After a good start to the year, Maclin’s been held under 10 points in two of the last three. You can attribute the duds to game flow (Giants) and Foles being bad (49’ers), but Maclin is still the clear top target in the Eagles passing game. The Cardinals have two “good” corners but they haven’t played well this year. The bust factor is certainly there but I’m likely to gamble on the boom factor with Maclin this week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Greg Jennings – $4000 – I’ve heard a lot of talk about the Vikings passing game this week, and surprisingly, Jennings is the least I’ve heard about. He’s leading the Vikings in targets, red zone targets, receptions, yards, and TD’s (just one). As I stated in the Bridgewater blurb, I love the Vikings passing attack this week. Let everyone else chase Patterson. I’m going with their #1 option.
TE
Top Plays of the Week
Greg Olson – $5500 – Olson’s the top TE going in this week’s slate and has the best matchup of the top tier TE’s. That being said, I doubt many will be on him. The Seahawks continue to give up TD’s to opposing TE’s and Olson continues to score them. He’s averaging over 21 PPG over the last three weeks and has failed to put up 17 points just twice this season. Olson is a great high floor, high ceiling, low-owned option this week.
Jordan Reed – $4000 – Reed has been solid since coming back from injury. I look for him to continue his good play on Monday night against the Cowboys. Dallas is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing TE’s so far this year. With Colt McCoy at QB for the Redskins, they may get down early, leading to prime garbage time points for Reed. He’s my favorite TE of the week.
Jordan Cameron – $3700 – Cameron was a major disappointment last week in a plus matchup in Jacksonville. Coming off a 22 point effort the week before, Cameron managed just one catch for five yards. Hoyer missed him badly last week on a short TD pass which certainly didn’t help things. There’s certainly risk in this selection but if the Browns can get the run game going early, Cameron will be setup for a big game. He is their big play weapon when running play action. He’s an under the radar play this week, even at a heavily discounted price.
Charles Clay – $3500 – Clay finally got rolling last week and it comes at the perfect time. He now gets a matchup against a Jacksonville team that’s bottom five in the NFL against the TE. I expect the Dolphins to have a lot of success on Sunday and while Clay may not have the upside of the rest of the write ups, I could certainly see him having his biggest game of the year this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Rob Gronkowski – $5900 – Gronk is pretty much the unanimous #1 TE in action this week with Jimmy Graham’s injury. That doesn’t mean he’s a good play though. Salary considered, Gronk has been a bust in every game but one so far this year. If you have the salary to spend, I certainly can’t blame you as Gronk provides a nice floor. He’s only gone under 11 points once so far this season. Until we start to see a better boom rate though, Gronk remains a luxury play.
Salary Saver of the Week
Zach Ertz – $3200 – Ertz gets the matchup we love to exploit with our TE’s against Arizona this week. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the highest owned TE of the week. He’s coming off a nice game where he found the end zone for the 2nd time this season. I like Ertz’s talent, I love the matchup, but I’m not all in on Ertz. He’s only notched more than three catches twice so far and hasn’t topped 50 yards in his past four games. He’s a great value play but is one I am likely to fade this week.