TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 9
Another week and again another millionaire will be made. In order to take down a GPP, you will generally have to have a couple players that have huge weeks that are low owned. The point of this article each week is to try and pin point high upside plays at different price points that I think will be low owned. I may also point out a player that I think will be highly owned that you may look to fade in hopes he has a bad week. I’ll provide a boom or bust and cheap option at each position as well. There’s a reason players are low owned (price, matchup, injury, etc.) but if you hit the right ones, you gain a huge edge on the field. Hopefully you’ll find a couple of those in the article this week. Good luck!
Quaterback
Top Plays of the Week
Peyton Manning – $9800 – I usually hate to use Manning because he and the Broncos are just so good, he’s often not forced to play 4 full quarters because the scores get out of hand. I don’t think that will be the case on Sunday. Last year the Patriots dared the Broncos running game to beat them and they did exactly that by rushing for over 200 yards. I think a more balanced attack will be needed this time which should play right into Manning’s hands. He has as much upside as anyone and is playing in the highest O/U of the week. At a slight discount to Luck, I love Manning this week.
Eli Manning – $7300 – Coming off the bye, I really like this spot for Eli this week. He hasn’t been forced to throw the ball 40 times yet this year but I think that will change on Monday night. The Giants running game hasn’t been able to do anything since Jennings went down and they will need to score to keep up with the Colts. The Colts got torched by Big Ben last week, and while I certainly don’t expect those type of results, I think the Steelers showed there are holes in the Indy secondary. Vontae Davis missed a majority of that game and he will be back so that doesn’t help things, but I still think Manning will have a lot of success.
Carson Palmer – $6800 – Palmer’s gone over 250 yards and 2 TD’s in every game this season. I don’t see any reason that will change this week. He’s going up against a Cowboys D that just made Colt McCoy look like competent NFL QB. The Cowboys have generally limited opponents’ plays by controlling time of possession. With Romo in doubt of playing and the Cardinals having a good run defense, I expect them to make the Cowboys beat them through the air, which should force the tempo of the game. That will help Palmer and the Cardinals offense put up more points on the board against an overrated Dallas D.
Andy Dalton – $6300 – Dalton may be my favorite play of the week for a number of reasons. He’s gone over 22 points in 2 of his last 3 and now gets his favorite receiver back in AJ Green. Jacksonville has been pretty stingy against opposing QB’s over the past couple weeks but a large part of that is because teams aren’t forced to throw the ball against them. These are the type of games Dalton typically blows up in. I think Jacksonville will score some points and keep it close enough that the Bengals won’t be able to take the pedal off the gas. The last reason I like Dalton is because he is a direct pivot off of Jeremy Hill, who I expect to be the highest owned player of the week. If Dalton has a huge week, it’s unlikely Hill will as well.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Colin Kaepernick – $7000 – Kaepernick just lit up this same Rams defense 2 games ago to the tune of 32 fantasy points. I expect him to be a popular pick this week because of that. Kaepernick hasn’t done much damage with his legs yet this year, failing to rush for a TD yet and rushing for a high of 64 yards in a game. If he can get that part of his game going with all of the weapons in the receiving game, the ceiling for Kaepernick is as high as anyone’s. Before deploying him, keep in mind that the only time Kaepernick as gone over 22 points this season is that game against the Rams. The bust factor is certainly in play here.
Salary Saver of the Week
Joe Flacco – $6100 – The Steelers D is giving up 29 PPG over their past 3 and 2 of those opponents have been the Texans and the Browns, not exactly offensive juggernauts. The Ravens passing game struggled to get things going last week and it lowered Flacco’s price tag to its lowest point of the season. He’s now priced the same as Colt McCoy and $500 less than Michael Vick. Flacco’s shown his upside this season when he’s on, and at this price tag, I’m willing to take the chance he is dialed in on Sunday night.
Running Back
Top Plays of the Week
Jamaal Charles – $7100 – Charles is starting to get it rolling and looking like the 2013 version of himself. He’s got 6 TD’s over his past 4 games and now gets a matchup in a game where the Chiefs are favored by 10. That should mean a heavy workload for Charles. The Jets are a good run D but have been susceptible lately, giving up the 19th most points to opposing RB’s over their past 5. The price point is still way too low for a back of his caliber. I expect him to be highly owned this week, so fade at your own risk.
Ahmad Bradshaw – $5800 – Bradshaw’s price is lumped right in the middle of 5 other good backs and I think he will be the one people pick the least. He’s gone over 20 points in each of the past 2 games, gets a matchup against a Giants D giving up the most points to opposing RB’s over their past 5, and is also playing in a game Vegas is expecting a lot of points to be scored. The revenge game factor is in play here as well, so take that as you may. All of that adds up to Bradshaw having a big game.
LeSean McCoy – $5200 – McCoy is likely to be the place I start building my lineups this week. This price is just way too low. He is getting the best center in football back in Jason Kelce this week. We’ve all seen in Cleveland how much a good center can impact a running game. Houston’s in the bottom half of the league in points given up to opposing RB’s and if there’s any time to buy low on McCoy, I think this is the week. This will be his breakout game of the year.
Denard Robinson – $4800 – Robinson is coming off back to back 100 yard weeks and now gets a juicy matchup against a Bengals defense giving up the most points to opposing RB’s over their past 3. He’s averaged 20 carries over the past 2 and if he can approach that number again, I’d expect him to have even more success than he’s had the last 2 weeks. If he can contribute anything in the passing game, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robinson approach 25 points this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Marshawn Lynch – $6100 – It’s tough to figure out what’s going on in Seattle, but it’s clearly having an impact on Lynch. After averaging 24 PPG over the first 4 weeks, Lynch has failed to hit double digits in his last 3, despite some very good matchups. The matchup is prime this week at home against Oakland. I could see “Beast Mode” getting back on track this week, but if he doesn’t get going early, could be in for another bust week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Jeremy Hill – $4000 – I’m pretty confident Hill will be the highest owned player of the week, so the question becomes, to fade or not to fade? On one hand you have a talented RB, with a home matchup in a game his team is favored by 10, against a defense giving up 22nd most points to opposing RB’s on the year. So what’s not to like? Despite the fact they are consistently losing, in their last 5, Jacksonville has actually been the 7th best team against opposing RB’s. They are playing pretty good defense. That being said, it’s going to be really tough to fade Hill at this price.
Wide Receiver
Top Plays of the Week
T.Y. Hilton – $8100 – The Giants have been tough on opposing WR’s but Hilton’s playing at such a high level right now I’m going to look past that. He’s leading the league in receiving, is the #1 target in the best passing offense in football, and is averaging over 30 PPG over his last 3. Despite all of that, he’s still priced $1000 below Antonio Brown this week. If I’m paying up for a receiver this week, Hilton is likely to be my target.
AJ Green – $6300 – Green returns from injury this week and is priced well below where he should be. There are a couple risks involved in rostering him this week but that’s not likely to deter me. The injury could flare up at any time forcing him to leave the game and if Cincy gets up big early, they may not have to throw it much in the 2nd half. I think the reward outweighs the risk this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. – $5000 – Beckham’s yet to top 4 catches or 44 yards in a game this season. He’ll exceed both on Monday night. He’s already established himself as a red zone target catching 2 short TD’s in New York’s last game. Coming off the bye week, I expect Eli to have a good connection working with Beckham. The Giants are going to need to throw the ball to keep up with the Colts and I think Beckham will be main beneficiary.
Michael Crabtree – $4500 – Crabtree is my “gut” call of the week. He’s been slowed by injury most of the year but should be healthy coming off the bye week. The Rams dressed 4 CB’s last week and all of them were rookies. I think Kaepernick will look to take advantage and get his #1 target going this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Steve Smith Sr. – $5600 – After his hot start to the season, Smith has slowed down lately failing to hit double digits in 3 of his last 4. I think he bounces back this week in Pittsburgh. He’ll likely be playing a good portion of his snaps against Cortez Allen, who may be the worst CB in the league right now. He’s still seeing a heavy amount of targets so it’s just a matter of time before Smith breaks out again. I think that time comes this week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Michael Floyd – $3800 – I’m going back to the well to the guy who absolutely killed me last week. Floyd somehow managed to put up a goose egg in a game where Carson Palmer threw for 329 yards. The opportunities were there, Floyd just did not capitalize. He dropped a long TD on the first series of the game then barely missed another long hookup shortly after in a play he ended up getting hurt and missing a little time with. He’s probable to play this week and if he can capitalize on his opportunities, he could have a huge game at a heavily discounted price tag.
Tight End
Top Plays of the Week
Julius Thomas – $5600 – Thomas is coming off back to back disappointing performances and luckily for us, his price reflects that. He’s down $1300 from where he was two weeks ago and just in time for a good matchup in New England. Peyton Manning is notorious for keeping all of his targets happy and I expect him to feed Julius this week in an effort to do so. New England’s struggling against the TE recently, giving up the 3rd most points over the past 3 weeks. Thomas is my #1 TE this week.
Larry Donnell – $4600 – Donnell bounced back after a couple of bad weeks putting up 14 points against the Cowboys in his last game. As you can probably tell by now, I’m pretty high on the Giants passing game this week. The TE is no exception. Indy is 27th in the league against opposing TE’s on the year and I think Donnell will continue to be a focal point of the Giants passing game with no Victor Cruz.
Dwayne Allen – $4100 – Allen’s been a model of consistency and a TD machine, catching a TD in 6 of his 8 games so far this year. Unfortunately even with that, he hasn’t been able to top 17 points yet. That could be coming this week against a Giants team giving up the most points to opposing TE’s over their last 3. Don’t be surprised if Allen finds the end zone a couple of times on Monday night.
Vernon Davis – $3700 – This is strictly a player’s talent and price point being way off play. Davis is priced $2000 lower than his highest point this season. Much like Crabtree, Davis has been hindered by injuries all year. The bye week should have gotten him healthy and when he is healthy, Davis has as much upside as anyone at the TE position.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Travis Kelce – $4100 – After his big coming out party against the Patriots four weeks ago, Kelce hasn’t hit double digits in his past 3. He still has all the talent in the world and the matchup is a good one. The Jets have been bad against the TE all season so the boom factor is certainly there. The bust factor strictly stems from him not being on the field as his snap count is preventing him from being an every week play.
Salary Saver of the Week
Owen Daniels – $3200 – Daniels practiced on Friday and is questionable to play so be sure to check the injury report on Sunday. According to some, Daniels absence from the game last week was the main reason for the Ravens struggles in the passing game. The Steelers struggle against opposing TE’s and if he can go, I’d expect a solid game.