Trevor Cahill Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Los Angeles could be a nice spot to look for the long ball tonight. Michael Pineda and Trevor Cahill have combined to allow 27 HRs in 91 innings already. Each has an xwOBA above .360, which extends above .370 over the last month. Pineda did not pitch last season (Tommy John), but a .387 wOBA with eight of his 13 HRs from RHBs immediately conjures thoughts of Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .321 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Pineda has never allowed this much damage to RHBs, but really doesn’t have a platoon split for his career. While Cahill has allowed nine of his 14 HRs to RHBs with just 17 more PAs against him that LHBs, it’s batters with the platoon advantage that have assaulted him for a .448 wOBA this season. Max Kepler (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), Eddie Rosario (109 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (147 wRC+, .202 ISO) are bats to focus on here. One could do worse than Jason Castro (172 wRC+, .431 ISO) at catcher as well. This game will additionally feature a hitter friendly umpire (Marvin Hudson) with both teams implied for exactly 4.5 runs.

Trevor Cahill has seen his strikeout rate collapse with no more than two in three of his last four starts, in which he’s allowed nine HRs and walked 10 of 81 batters. He’s now sporting a board high 48.2 Z-O-Swing% for the season. His velocity is down a mile per hour from last season and trending downward even further with nearly each start. Also worst on the board are his 13.8% Barrels/BBE for the season and .437 xwOBA over the last month. It’s not often that you’ll see Baltimore bats recommended here, but it’s also not often you’ll see them on the top third of the board (4.74 implied runs) on a full slate. LHBs now have a .376 xwOBA with a 42.9 Hard% against Cahill over the last calendar year. In Dwight Smith Jr. (124 wRC+, .215 ISO) the Orioles actually have an above average bat against RHP over the last 12 months. He and Trey Mancini (113 wRC+, .216 ISO) are the only ones who can claim a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 in this projected lineup over that span. Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+, .143 ISO) is probably worth a flyer as well, as Cahill is certainly a pitcher who can be run on as well. Because it’s the Orioles, there are two small potential drawbacks as well. First, Rio Riuz (116 wRC+) is the only batter on the roster with at least 10 PAs over the last week, who is above an 80 wRC+ over that span. Lastly, Cahill has not exceeded a 21.4 GB% in three of his seven starts, but has been at or above 50% in each of his other four starts. However, he’s still allowed six HRs over his last three starts with at least 50% ground balls.

The Angels and Rangers are the only teams on the board implied for at least five runs. Texas is a great hitter’s park, but Trevor Cahill is a fairly competent pitcher when he’s healthy and his early season numbers somewhat reflect that through a few starts this season (3.50 ERA, 22.9 K%, .293 xwOBA). There is an interesting aspect to his batted ball profile that players may want to consider if planning to use him tonight. His 29.4 GB% is nearly half his career rate. It appears he’s throwing a few more four-seamers and curves and perhaps he alters his approach in this park, where fly balls are generally not the way you want to go, but a peek inside of the Premium Subscription also reveals a very hitter friendly umpire in this situation (Greg Gibson). Even should Cahill change his approach to generate more ground balls, this could be a tough spot for him. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a 35% hard hit rate against him over the last calendar year. As always, Shin-Soo Choo (146 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is in a strong spot at the top of the lineup at home, while Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .286 ISO) generally comes with tremendous upside in spots like this.

Based on his pristine Spring Training numbers and plus-matchup against the Giants, expect Eric Lauer (4.80 XFIP, 19.8% K-rate in 2018) to be somewhat popular on two-pitcher sites today. As the second-cheapest starting pitcher on DraftKings ($5,800), Lauer is sure to receive consideration, and rightfully so. However, Angels ace Trevor Cahill ($6,300 on DK) presents an opportunity to pivot off of Lauer and seemingly has more upside due to his proven ability to strike out hitters. Last season, Cahill struck out 22.2% of his opponents and got them to chase pitches out of the strike zone with ease (29.3% of his total strikes thrown were swings and misses outside the zone). The Athletics, who he started for on Opening Day last year, are a fantastic matchup for Cahill. Four of the hitters in Oakland’s projected lineup have strikeout rates of 25.8 or above (Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Nick Hundley). A third of their hitters had walk rates of 6.6% or less (Stephen Piscotty, Pinder, Laureano), an aggression that should play right into Cahill’s hands. Although he struggled to stay healthy throughout his career and rarely went deep into games last season, he enters the 2019 campaign fully healthy and ready to go. Of course Davis (.315 ISO, .380 wOBA in 2018) and company have the ability to tag him for a few runs, but if Cahill generates swings and misses like he has in the past, it’ll be easy to look past the earned runs and smile at the upside presented by the Ks.

Trevor Cahill has the top strikeout rate (24.9%) of any pitcher with more than five starts tonight and has a 53.4 GB% to go with it (also best on the board with more than two starts). He's in a somewhat marginal spot (Twins 97 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP) at a marginal ($8K on FD) to slightly elevated cost ($9.2K on DK) and is certainly someone players should consider tonight. He's gone at least six innings with two runs or less in three of his last four starts with Eddie Rosario (134 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) the only truly imposing bat in the opposing lineup. If not using Cahill though, Rosario is the only Minnesota bat above $4K on DraftKings or $3.3K on FanDuel. Jake Cave (113 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Joe Mauer (103 wRC+, .110 ISO) may have some value.

Middle of the board pitchers come with some risk tonight, but you'll also find upside that matches the highest priced pitchers in some cases. One such arm is Jon Gray. He's focused on ground balls since returning from AAA, throwing 14.1 innings at Coors, allowing just two runs to the Astros and Mariners, striking out 12 with a ground ball rate above 65%. Last season, he changed his pitch usage to get ground balls at home, but strikeouts on the road. He gets a massive park upgrade where he'll face an offense with a 94 wRC+ vs RHP in St Louis. His 28.2 K% is fourth best on the board, his 3.23 SIERA is second. He's had issues shaking a .350+ BABIP this year though. On the other side of that matchup, Jack Flaherty has the third best strikeout rate on the board (29.7%) and is fourth best in SIERA (3.40) and xwOBA (.290). His 85.9 mph aEV tops the board among tonight’s starters. He hasn’t exceeded five innings in four straight starts and has a 17.6 HR/FB. He may be in the top park adjusted spot on the board, hosting the Rockies (80 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). Trevor Cahill out43.2 IP – 10 ER – 11 BB – 41 K – 165 BF. He’s also been below a 57 GB% just once outside that state, as opposed to below that all four times pitching in it. His 13.0 SwStr% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. He pitches against a decent Toronto offense, but in a favorable home park. side four trips to the state of Texas this year: Walker Buehler did not pitch well in his first start after the break (5 ER, 2 HR), but was up to 90 pitches, which should get him through six with efficiency tonight. He faces a dangerous Milwaukee offense (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but in the best park with some upside. Their 25.1 K% vs RHP matches his 25.3% season mark. Jameson Taillon started throwing his slider in earnest in his 11th start of the season with the following results: 3.09 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 18.2 K-BB%, 50.8 GB%. For some reason, he’s been below 20% on the pitch in each of his last three starts with an increase in curveballs. The Cubs have just an 11.2 K-BB% with a 106 wRC+ vs RHP, so it’s not going to be easy, but it’s doable. Danny Duffy has struck out just 10 of his last 57 batters and allowed seven runs to the Tigers last time out, but the White Sox are very, very bad (18.6 K-BB% at home, 85 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs LHP). Zack Godley has a 25.6 K% with a 15 SwStr% over the last month with a 3.91 SIERA over that span, but a much higher ERA due to a .378 BABIP and 62.2 LOB%. The Rangers have a 25.6 K% and 92 wRC+ vs RHP.

There are no...pitchers above $10K on either site, 25% strikeout rates, or offenses below 3.6 implied runs tonight. Tonight's pitching options are difficult at best. The top five strikeout rates on the board are Rich Hill (25.8%), Trevor Cahill (24.3%), Anibal Sanchez (24.2%), Kyle Gibson (23.6%) and Nick Kingham (22.7%). Hill has workload issues and is facing the Braves (116 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs LHP), but should probably still be considered for $9K on this slate. Cahill is facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, but does so in Texas. Sanchez gets the Dodgers (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Gibson has the Red Sox at Fenway and Kingham hosts the Mets (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP). He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing seven HRs over that span though. Never the less, he may be an answer as the second most expensive pitcher on either site. The other thing to consider is that there are just two extremely negative run environments on the board in Miami and San Francisco. The first pits Tommy Milone against Dan Straily. Straily has just a 17 K% over the last month, but has gone at least six innings in five straight and has a .273 xwOBA over the last 30 days that's 100 points below his season average. The Washington lineup is dangerous, but he gets to face them in a power suppressing park for $7K or less. Milone is interesting because of a 19.9 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts this year, but he has just a 10.8% mark over 736 major league innings and has never reached a 20 K% in any season. He's not available on FanDuel. San Francisco looks like the destination for daily fantasy pitching tonight. Derek Rodriguez (18.9 K%, 4.25 SIERA, .306 xwOBA). He's completed six innings in six of eight starts and the Brewers should supply some upside (25.3 K%), while their power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) should be tempered by the park. Wade Miley (14.7 K%, 5.55 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is much less exciting, but doesn't allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (56.9%).