Carlos Rodon Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A 12 game work week ending slate that features pitcher friendly weather around most of the country includes five $10K pitchers (three on DraftKings) and one more exceeding $9K on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board at $11K (though just third most expensive for $700 less on DK), A hand issue, thankfully not an arm one, made Carlos Rodon skip a start. While only five of his last 12 outings have been Quality Starts, he’s failed to punch out at least seven in just two of those and hit double digits in six of his last 10. A 32.8 K% on the season with just 6.0% Barrels/BBE registers non-FIP estimators all within two-tenths of a run of his 2.84 ERA. While the Arizona offense (82 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs LHP) has perked up in the second half, they’ve struggled most against fastballs (-0.43 wFB/C), which are Rodon’s break and butter (60.7%, -1.3 RV/100, 27.7 Whiff%) and also have just a team 50 wRC+ (24.9 K-BB%) over the last week. With the roof being open in Arizona and it being one of the less pitcher friendly environments on this slate, Rodon projects as just the fourth best arm on the board and as a middling value. However, he certainly has the upside to win a GPP and should be heavily featured in multi-entry GPPs if it looks like he may go under-owned. Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog contains a detailed analysis of all six of the above mentioned pitchers tonight.

The Monday night slate includes six games on FanDuel, but eight on DraftKings, starting a half hour earlier. Half of tonight’s games take place in domes, one pitcher is making his season debut and another team is throwing their bullpen tonight. There are two $10K pitchers on the board, while one available on DraftKings only exceeds $9.5K. Within $100 of $11K on either site, but only the most expensive on DraftKings, Carlos Rodon has struck out at least 10 in four of his last six starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last five, though he has allowed seven barrels (9.6%) over that span. Rodon has struck out 32.1% of batters this season, allowing just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. While he’s benefited a bit from just nine of 22 barrels leaving the yard (5.8 HR/FB), his 2.81 ERA is within two-tenths of a run of all non-FIP estimators. He’s in a difficult spot, hosting the Padres (103 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs LHP). Tonight’s projected lineup includes just three batters above a 17.5 K% vs LHP, according to PlateIQ. For this reason, Rodon is either the third or fourth best projected pitcher on a 16 (or 12) pitcher board and a middle to bottom of the board projected value. If there’s a chance this will suppress his ownership, he’s the perfect GPP play tonight. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, including the top projected pitcher on the board, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A nine game Wednesday night slate features Carlos Rodon as the only $10K pitcher on both sites tonight. He struck out eight batters for the second consecutive start last time out, most recently over eight shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Without a run allowed over his last 14 innings, he appears to have fully rebounded from a five start stretch with a 6.00 ERA and estimators well above four (19.5 K%). Rodon’s back up to a 30.5 K% (second best on the board). His 5.6 HR/FB may not be sustainable, but he’s only allowed nine barrels (5.0%) with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 2.90 xERA to a 3.25 SIERA. Problematically, he’s pitching in Atlanta tonight, where it’s hot with winds blowing out to left and there’s a hitter friendly umpire against a predominantly right-handed lineup that owns a 126 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Optimistically, the Braves also have a 23.8 K% vs LHP. Rodon is currently the second best projected pitcher on the board, but outside the top five projected values on either site. To find out which pitcher is not only the top projected pitcher on the slate, but top projected value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The most expensive and best pitcher on the slate tonight is Carlos Rodon. If you thought he peaked with his no-hitter, consider that his velocity still seems to be rising with each start. He’s the only pitcher on the slate above a 30 K% (36.6%, 15.8 SwStr%), he’s struck out at least eight in 10 of 12 starts and in seven quality starts he has not allowed more than a single run. The Mariners have an 85 wRC+ and 27.6 K% vs LHP. Rodon is your easy pitching answer if you’re unconcerned about ownership. Framber Valdez is the only other pitcher reaching $10K on either site, as he too, does so on both sites. Since his first start of the season, Valdez has completed seven innings and at least three full turns through the lineup in four straight starts. The 22.1 K% may not be impressive, but he has an 11.6 SwStr% with 71.1% of his contact on the ground, which has led to 3.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 90.1 mph EV. Also with a great matchup, Valdez travels to Detroit to face an offense with a 78 wRC+ and 29.4 K% vs LHP. The two most expensive pitchers on the board face two of the three highest strikeout splits on the board in terms of pitcher handedness.

Keeping with the left-handed theme, the only two remaining pitchers above $9K on both site are Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi and both have much tougher matchups than the two higher priced lefties. With his velocity steadily rising like Rodon, Manaea has been improving as the season’s gone on. He has a 27.1 K% (13.3 SwStr%) over the last month, punching out a season high 11 Yankees last time out. He’s magically been able to turn a 90 mph EV with a 39.9 GB% into just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 9.0 HR/FB, which matches his 3.01 ERA to a 3.07 FIP. Additional estimators, including a 3.73 xERA are about three quarters of a run higher. However, the Giants have a 110 wRC+ and 21.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Only two players in the projected lineup exceed a 22 K% against southpaws since last year. Still, at the level Manaea has been pitching, he’s still a reasonable option for less than $10K.

Kikuchi seems to be facing an offense that pummels LHP nearly every time out (with a short reprieve over his last few starts) and still has managed to produce a 3.46 ERA that nearly matches his 3.46 xFIP, though additional estimators are a bit higher, as a .226 BABIP, 79.3 LOB% and 21.7 HR/FB need to work themselves out. He’s struck out a quarter of batters faced (25.3%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.1%). Kikuchi has recorded seventh inning outs seven times, failing to complete six innings just twice this year. However, the White Sox have a 120 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP. On a more positive note, five of nine projected batters for the White Sox exceed a 24.5 K% vs LHP since 2020.

Carlos Rodon has finally begun to flash some of the upside many thought he’d have in the big leagues. Rodon is using his fastball less (51.5% in 2019, career 60.9%) and his slider more (41.2% in 2019, career 28%) which is a trend that has generally led to good results for other pitchers. It makes sense for Rodon to use his slider more given that it has clearly been his best pitch. His slider has registered a pitch value of 1.54 per 100 pitches for his career, meanwhile his next best pitch has been his changeup at an ugly -0.41 value per 100 pitches per Fangraphs. His new pitch selection has led to a .268 xwOBA against, 30.2 % K rate and 3.64 SIERA. Given his newly-found K upside, Rodon’s price has been slow to adjust and is too cheap across the industry. Rodon gets a nice matchup tonight with the Tigers who have just a 74 wRC+ vs. LHP this year and a 23.1% K rate. Rodon will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Todd Tichenor. The Tigers have a 4.25 implied total vs. Rodon and the ChiSox tonight.

D.J. LeMahieu will lead it off this afternoon for the Yanks vs. Carlos Rodon. Carlos Rodon has generated some hype early on in 2019 and is certainly talented, but he’s not someone we need to be shying away from until further notice. Rodon is still walking 4 batters per 9 and is far from polished. LeMahieu has made a great transition to the Bronx so far in 2019 with a scorching 187 wRC+, and is a career 105 wRC+ hitter vs. LHP. The Yankees have a solid implied total of 5.23 so LeMahieu should certainly see a good amount of plate appearances and run scoring/RBI chances. LeMahieu is just $3.9k on Draftkings and $3.7k on Fanduel in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium on Sunday.

In one of the most positives run environments in baseball, the Indians are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs (5.04) against the Chicago White Sox and more specifically, Carlos Rodon. The lefty has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, but also has failed to strike out more batters than he's walked in three of his last four as well. Oddly, Rodon has exhibited a bit of a reverse split this season. RHBs have just a .277 wOBA against and though xwOBA brings that up to 31 points, .308 is still a better than average mark. Francisco Lindor (170 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season) and Jose Ramirez (126 wRC+, .217 ISO) are just too good though, especially with the threat of Rodon's failing peripherals giving them a better chance to either get on base on drive in runs. While stacking against pitchers with control issues is the more optimal play than one-offs, the Tribe has five batters in the lineup above a 120 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this season and nobody else above a 90 wRC+ or .130 ISO. Yan Gomes (130 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Melky Cabrera (158 wRC+, .196 ISO) might be the lower priced compliments to the big bats here.