DJ Stewart Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Harvey is expected to work a shortened outing, sort of like an Opener here on just three days rest. The only difference between today and his last few starts is that the shortened length has been pre-determined. He has allowed 24 runs over his last 12.2 innings with four home runs. Over this span, his 90.2 mph EV, 9.3% Barrels/BBBE and 14.8 K-BB% are all fairly average. It’s really a .500 BABIP and 37.4 LOB% that are doing the damage. For the season, his xERA is exactly five and no other estimators are higher. He hasn’t been good, but all estimators agree he’s being done a bit dirty here. Perhaps it’s the defense (-9 Runs Prevented) that’s abandoned him. Don’t expect much from this bullpen behind him either. They have a 6.05 ERA (4.22 FIP) over the last 30 days. The Twins are the lowest of four teams above five implied runs (5.12) on an eight game slate on Wednesday and while it doesn’t take a lot or research to suggest utilizing Nelson Cruz (127 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Josh Donaldson (117 wRC+, .208 ISO) in this spot, a great value here might be Trevor Larnach (129 wRC+ vs RHP, 146 wRC+ last 30 days), who costs $2.5K or less on either site and is projected to bat sixth.

Value can also be found on both sides in this matchup with Randy Dobnak’s 93.2 mph EV (9.0% Barrels/BBE) too. LHBs are above a .350 wOBA & xwOBA against him since last season and D.J. Stewart (119 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site, while Cedric Mullins (131 wRC+, .176 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel. The Minnesota bullpen also has an ERA of 5.00 with a 5.03 FIP over the last 30 days as well.

One of the few spots off the west coast that we can be assured won’t be affected by weather tonight is the only dome situations on the slate in Miami. Generally not considered a hitter friendly environment, it may not be much worse than a lot of other cold and weather effected environments tonight. The park will host a game between the Marlins and Orioles, again, two offenses we don’t often look to jam into daily fantasy lineups, but this situation may offer some value, especially at the top of the visiting order. Nick Neidert is unlikely to be a Miami rotation mainstay. He’s walked more (nine) than he’s struck out (six) through 40 batters with just a 6.2 SwStr%. He’s generated half as many Barrels (three) as ground balls (six) through 25 batted balls. LHBs have a .464 wOBA (.500 xwOBA) just 32 career PAs, but it’s probably a fair assumption to make that he might not be good against them. The projected Baltimore lineup offers a few average or better LH bats against RHP since 2019. Those include Cedric Mullins (97 wRC+, .143 ISO), DJ Stewart (110 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Anthony Santander (106 wRC+, .241 ISO). Stewart is less than $3K on DraftKings (not included on the FanDuel main slate) and may be one of the top values of the day. All three are below $4K. Don’t sleep on the home team side of this matchup either. While the Marlins lean mostly right-handed, LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Matt Harvey since 2019, making Corey Dickerson (120 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP over that span) a great value at just $3.1K too.

Huascar Ynao has walked one more than he’s struck out through 73 batters faced. The good news is that 52.1% of his contact has been on the ground with an 86.8 mph EV. With more walks than strikeouts though, his ERA and all estimators are above six. The Orioles have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa in 17.2 major league innings. DJ Stewart continues to destroy opposing pitching with a major league leading 276 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while 27.6% of his contact this year has been barreled. Stewart has a .359 wOBA and .280 ISO vs RHP since last season and still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

Touki Toussaint was banished to the dreaded “Alternate Site” towards the end of August, after walking eight of his last 26 batters with just five strikeouts, pushing his ERA up to 7.89. Control has long been a major issue and one he looked to be improving on, while walking just five of his first 76 batters. The 27.5 K% is great if he can ever get the rest of it under control. Unfortunately, his 12.5% Barrels/BBE nearly matches his 12.8% walk rate. The Orioles have a 100 wRC+ with a 22.9 K% vs RHP this year. Touissaint has been particularly smoked by LHBs since last season (.454 wOBA, .306 ISO). DJ Stewart counters with a .354 wOBA and .269 ISO vs RHP since last year. He has a 278 wRC+ over the last 30 days (37 PAs), which is only the best mark in the majors, and he’s barreled 26.9% of his contact on the year. Perhaps the best part is that Stewart still costs less than $3K on FanDuel.