Edward Cabrera Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

With top of the board pitching including tough matchups, potential workload issues and possibly even under the radar injury issues (Kyle Wright arm fatigue), perhaps the clever thing to do is pay down for pitching and let’s start with the second best projected pitcher on the board, costing $9.6K on FanDuel, but more than $2K less on DraftKings. Edward Cabrera has a healthy 25.8 K% (13.1 SwStr%) with a 29.5 Z-O-Swing% and strong contact profile (86.4 mph EV, 32.6% 95+ mph EV), but a 12.3 BB% means that he’s only completed six innings in one of his last nine starts. Estimators ranging from a 3.63 DRA to a 4.59 FIP are well above his 2.70 ERA (.199 BABIP, 88.8 LOB%). However, he also has a decent matchup with some upside (Cubs 98 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) in a great park in Miami. In addition to projecting as the second best arm on the slate, Cabrera also projects as the top DraftKings value and is behind only one other pitcher that you probably can’t consider using on a single pitcher like FanDuel.

That top projecting FanDuel value is Tyler Wells ($7.1K), who threw only 50 pitches (four innings, 14 batters) in his second start back from the IL, so we can’t be looking at much more than 65-70 and four to five innings here. In fact, he’s averaged less than five innings per start for the year. Even against the Tigers (71 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 48 wRC+, 31.8 K% last seven days), that’s probably not worth chasing a 17.9 K% with only a single estimator below four (3.79 xERA). He’s a bit more interesting in an SP2 role on DraftKings for $6.1K, where he projects as the second best value behind Cabrera.

Luis Garcia is up to a 4.04 ERA that matches his 4.03 FIP with 22 of his 32 barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard. A 17.4 K-BB% is otherwise fairly healthy with remaining estimators ranging from a 3.52 xERA to a 3.81 xFIP. Considering he has just a 34.9% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV), the 12.8 HR/FB seems a bit fluky. Garcia’s allowed between three and four runs in seven of his last eight starts (4.82 ERA/3.90 FIP/4.30 xFIP). The matchup has some upside (103 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) with a park upgrade. Garcia projects as the third best DraftKings value ($8.3K), but is clustered among three or four arms projecting from the third to seventh best values on FanDuel, where he’s $800 more.

Projecting as a middle of the board value, Wade Miley has started six games this season with multiple IL trips in between, not exceeding 83 pitches in any of them. As usual, he’s generating a lot of weak (85.7 mph EV, 33.3% 95+ mph EV) ground balls (55 GB%) with just a 10.4 K-BB%. He’s also generated five popups to two barrels (2.5%) and has a 28.0 Z-O-Swing%. Estimators range from a 3.21 FIP to a 4.39 DRA. He costs just $6.6K on DraftKings, in Miami (68 wRC+, 27.9 K% vs LHP) and has to be in strong consideration for your SP2 spot.

Costing just $5.9K on DraftKings, while Jakob Junis has just five Quailty Starts in 16 tries, he’s probably been more effective than his 4.15 ERA suggests. He’s struck out batters at a near average 20.9% with great control (5.2 BB%) and a 29.3 Z-O-Swing%. All estimators are more than one-quarter run lower, but none are more than half a run below actual results. The obvious problem here is Coors, though with the Rockies owning just a 79 wRC+ (22.3 K%) vs RHP and 31 wRC+ (31.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) over the last seven days, a cheap, competent Coors arm may be viable on this slate.

There are quite a few things we don’t know yet about tonight. For example, the Pirates have yet to confirm a starting pitcher, while the Orioles have just named Chris Ellis, who has five major league innings to his name, while another two (Jake Latz & Edward Cabrera) are making their major league debuts. Let’s try to learn a little bit more about these young arms in order to gain some sort of edge on the field. Ellis started 13 games, compiling 57 innings at AAA this season with a 22.7 K% and 10.9 BB%. Less than 40% of his contact has been on the ground at AAA and just 25% in five major league innings (four this year). Already 28 years-old, Ellis is not a name you’ll find on any prospect lists, is already working on his sixth organization and has thrown over 300 innings at AAA. Oddsmakers don’t expect Ellis to be successful. The Angels currently have the second highest team total on the board tonight (5.45).

With just a 35+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and a starting assignment at AA this season, Jake Latz probably didn’t expect to find himself starting a major league game this season, but after producing a 20.6 K-BB% over 63.1 innings there, he pitched just nine innings at AAA (10.9 K-BB%) before getting the call. In a Fangraphs prospect report published near the end of May called him a “viable spot starter”, which is what sportsbooks are treating him like, issuing Cleveland the third highest implied run line on the board (5.29).

Edward Cabrera is certainly expected to be more than a spot starter. He is currently the Marlins’ third ranked prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Cabrera’s been injury prone, throwing just 29.1 AAA innings this year (37.2 K%) and 26 more at AA (34 K%), but we can plainly see the upside in his numbers. Accordingly, the Nationals are sixth lowest on the board with a team total of just four runs. Cabrera is a very interesting SP2 on DraftKings for just $5K.