Griffin Canning Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Griffin Canning has struck out 12 of the 45 batters he’s faced, while allowing four runs and as many walks over 10.2 innings, but that’s fairly impressive when you consider he’s faced the A’s and Astros. While his velocity has been down 1.3 mph in either start, he’s sustained his 13.8 SwStr% from last season quite well and his .284 wOBA this far is in line with his .299 mark last year. Canning generates a lot of contact in the air (37 GB%), which would have been a concern in Texas previously, but that doesn’t seem to be the case in the new retractable dome, which has played more fairly towards pitchers so far. The Texas offense has just a 76 wRC+ and 11 HR/FB this season. Canning doesn’t have much of a platoon split (38 points by wOBA, but just four by xwOBA) and the Rangers only really have one incredibly dangerous bat in their lineup. Canning may not be the top pitcher on the mound tonight, but is a more than reasonable mid-range gamble at $7.2K on FanDuel.

Griffin Canning now has an ERA above five with nearly matching estimators. His strikeout rate has remained steadily around a quarter of batters faced over the last month, but with a drop in SwStr rate to 8%. Still, he has a 13.6 SwStr% for the season and it’s difficult to see what’s behind his great struggles. His SIERA and DRA are still a reasonable 4.3, while exceptional contact management (29.9% 95+ mph EV) projects a .297 xwOBA. It’s a bit higher over the last month (.328), but still a full 100 points below his actual mark. There’s certainly the talent here to turn this thing around and an exceptional matchup tonight in which to do it. The Tigers have a 72 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Over the last week, their numbers are even worse (42 wRC+, 23.1 K-BB%). For those looking shopping in the bargain section tonight, Canning has the potential to offer a nice return for just $6.7K on FanDuel and even for $1.2K more on DraftKings.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays will throw their bullpens at each other. The Phillies and Braves feature two below average strikeout, contact managers in the Atlanta heat. Griffin Canning vs Lance Lynn would be an interesting matchup in another park. Canning owns a 15.1 SwStr% and 19.7 K-BB% against an offense with a 24.5 K% vs RHP. Lynn has a 31.3 K% over the last month. However, this game is in Texas, where Canning’s 36.4 GB% could be a problem and Lynn is facing an offense that refuses to join the strikeout revolution (17.7% vs RHP). To make matters even more difficult, this matchup appears to feature hitter friendly umpiring assignment.

In the final game, Dinelson Lamet makes his return from Tommy John surgery against an offense that has annihilated RHP at home. By default, that leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu as an essentially unfadable pitcher tonight. This, despite the fact that he’s the only $10K+ pitcher tonight and his 1.83 ERA is built upon an unsustainable 86.3 LOB% with 16% of his runs being unearned thus far. He’s walked just seven batters this season, turning a slightly above average strikeout rate into a 22.1 K-BB%. A 30.6 Z-O-Swing% has helped him manage contact to an 85.8 mph aEV and 4.5% Barrels/BBE, projecting a .264 xwOBA that’s just as optimistic as his 2.46 DRA, a bit below his remaining estimators (3.45 SIERA). He owns an even better .231 xwOBA at home since last season. The Padres had been hitting the ball well and, in fact, have a 104 wRC+ with a 22 HR/FB vs LHP, but were recently cooled down by the vaunted Giants’ pitching staff and still own a 25.9 K% against southpaws. Ryu is bound to be featured in a ton of lineups on a four game slate, but it’s difficult to see how you get away from him considering the conditions.

Aside from Chris Sale, today’s slate features several good or at least high upside pitchers in tough spots. Griffin Canning is no different, having to face a Dodger lineup (120 wRC+, 9.2 K-BB%, 16.6 HR/FB, 26.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) who will even add a DH tonight. However, Canning has struck out 26.9% of batters in his rookie season, while owning the top SwStr rate on the board (15.5%) with just a 6.4 BB% and while his .232 BABIP is unsustainable, he’s combined swings and misses with strong contact management (86.6 mph aEV). In no way is this an enviable spot, but there are at least five pitchers who are more costly on either site and the only pitcher below his price tag above a 24 K% is at Coors (where Yu Darvish may not be a terrible flyer to take at $6.2K on this slate either, by the way). Players who aren’t paying up for Chris Sale tonight and are looking for a pitcher with some upside may consider Canning if they can stomach the immense risk.