Logan Gilbert Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Clearly, where the bottom half of the board starts, at least in terms of cost, Logan Gilbert struck out at least nine in four of his last six starts, but also no more than five in eight of his last 11. He struck out just 22.7% of batters on the year with a strong walk rate (6.4%), but appeared to be a bit lucky with just 7.1% Barrels/BBE, despite just a 35.6 GB%, 91 mph EV and 45.6% hard hit rate. A 44.6 Z-O-Swing% suggests he wasn’t fooling many batters. With one of the more marginal defenses remaining the post season (2 Runs Prevented), the gap between Gilbert’s 3.20 ERA estimators ranging from a 3.46 FIP to a 4.11 xERA could easily be explained by that hard hit rate that showed up more in a 24.2 LD% than in barrels or home runs (9.2 HR/FB). While the Astros had a solid, but not completely intimidating 107 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs RHP, they also had a 123 wRC+ and 18.8 K% at home. Gilbert, who threw his four-seamer more than 50% of the time this year, had four Quality Starts against Houston (25 IP – 7 ER – 1 HR – 4 BB – 22 K – 100 BF, despite having a strong reverse split (.334 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). He is your fifth best projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the second from the bottom in terms of value on FanDuel.

Third least expensive on either site, it wasn’t strikeouts (16.6%, 10.1 K-BB%) and the contact profile was perfectly average (42.1 GB%, 7.5% Barrrels/BBE), so what was responsible for Cal Quantrill’s 3.38 ERA that was well below estimators ranging from a 4.12 FIP to a 4.50 SIERA? It was a little bit of everything, from eight unearned runs to a 9.6 HR/FB, though his .278 BABIP was actually slightly higher than what the Cleveland defense (14 Runs Prevented) allowed (.254). One interesting aspect here could be his cutter (36.1%, -0.2 RV/100, 23.8 Whiff%, .289 wOBA, .316 xwOBA). The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) didn’t face a ton of them in the second half, but on a per pitch basis were the fifth worst offense against the pitch (-1.18 wFC/C). He is your sixth best projected arm on either site and value on FanDuel, but second from the bottom in terms of value on DraftKings.

Second from the bottom of the board, Ranger Suarez did not exceed five strikeouts over his last eight starts, only even hitting that number twice. While the strikeout rate was just 19.5% (10.7 K-BB%), he significantly upped his value with a 55.4 GB% and 34.9% hard hit rate. The result is a 3.65 ERA that’s closest to his 3.78 xERA with additional estimators ranging as high as a 4.71 DRA. The Braves will strike out some (23.3% vs LHP), but otherwise pounded southpaws (118 wRC+) and had a 16.2 HR/FB at home this year. Suarez also had a decent sized split (RHBs .332 wOBA, .314 xwOBA) that could prove problematic against this predominantly right-handed lineup. He did face Atlanta five times this season. The first two weren’t so good (11 IP – 9 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 11 K – 47 BF), but the last three were much better (17 IP – 4 R – 1 ER – 6 BB – 12 K – 68 BF), including two September Quality Starts. The Phillies also have the worst defense (-31 Runs Prevented) of any post-season team, although they looked much improved in St Louis. Suarez projects as the second worst pitcher on either site and value on FanDuel, but the third best value on DraftKings.

The cheapest pitcher on either site, Mike Clevinger had a mind-blowing 13.5 K% (5.5 K-BB%) over his last 11 starts and if you think this is some magic sample size cherry picking, he did not exceed four strikeouts in a single one of those starts. He also generated just 31.8% of his contact on the ground with 13 home runs and 24 barrels (13.4%) over that span with a 5.67 ERA/6.50 FIP/5.87 xFIP combo. In fact, a 4.32 DRA is his only season estimator below a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have a great defense (25 Runs Prevented) that they showed off against the Mets, but there’s only so much they can do. Clevinger had only two pitches grade average or better by Statcast, his sinker (13.6%, -2.6 RV/100) and four-seamer (37.3%, -0.2 RV/100). The Dodgers (122 wRC+, 21.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP) were the best offense in baseball against fastballs in the second half (0.89 wFB/C) and it wasn’t even close. They also had their way with Clevinger in three starts this year (13 IP – 14 ER – 5 HR – 4 BB – 11 K – 63 BF). Clevinger is the worst projected pitcher on either site and value on DraftKings, but the fourth best projected value on FanDuel, although you’d need a cast iron stomach to consider him on a single pitcher site (or either site for that matter).

The theme of tonight’s slate is chaos, weather related once again. Two games have altered their start times in Oakland and Chicago. The O’s & A’s moved their game forward and will start at 6:07 ET. The FanDuel main slate, which was already intended to start a half hour earlier and include three more games than DraftKings, moves with it and now will start an hour earlier and include the same 10 games it was originally supposed to. The Rays & Cubs moved forward and then backwards. Neither game is included on the DraftKings slate, which is now a five game board. Either way, the three most expensive arms on the board (Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt and Logan Gilbert) are available on both slates.

Rodon and Bassitt face off at Citi Field, a well-known negative run environment. Much like he started off last year, Rodon has simply dominated through two starts, striking out 21 of 45 batters (15.6 SwStr%), walking four with a single barrel (5.3%). According to Statcast, his velocity (97.1 mph) is up 1.7 mph since last season. Though he was up in the same range last summer before his shoulder started barking. Rodon has a 35.6 K% since the start of last year with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE allowed. The Mets are hot (132 wRC+ L7 days). Rodon is the top overall projected pitcher (PlateIQ) and a top two value on DraftKings. The only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites, he’s expected to be one of the most popular pitchers on the board too. Bassitt could get lost in this rotation, but all he’s done is strike out 14 of 44, allowing just a single run on a home run (his only barrel) over 12 innings. Omitting the shortened 2020 season, Bassitt has otherwise increased his K-BB% in four straight seasons. The Giants have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP, but six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. Bassitt has the second highest projected point total and may be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings. He may have the higher floor than Rodon, but lower ceiling.

Logan Gilbert is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites. He broke into the league with an impressive 19.9 K-BB% over 24 starts last year and has improved that to 25% through his first two of this season. He’s walked just one of 40 batters, allowing a single barrel (3.7%) and 87.2 mph EV. He just might be Seattle’s best pitcher already. Seattle is another severely negative run environment and the Rangers have just a 72 wRC+ vs RHP. Gilbert does not project as well, but this may work to keep his ownership lower too. He has a lot of upside in GPPs.

Considering the complications at the top of the board tonight (injuries, weather, matchups), tonight might be an ideal night to consider paying down for your pitching needs (in GPPs at least). Kyle Gibson has suddenly struck out 16 of his last 47 batters (Mets and Cubs) with swinging strike rates of 22% and 5.2% in his last two starts. Make of that what you will, considering he has just two other double digit SwStr% effort with the Phillies. He has continued to generate lots of contact on the ground (54.4%), but perhaps that’s part of the problem (4.76 ERA) with that Philadelphia defense behind him. Season estimators range from a 3.80 xERA to a 4.44 SIERA, all a bit above the 3.51 ERA. Despite the difficult park, he’s in a great spot. The Pirates have a 76 wRC+ on the road, 83 wRC+ vs RHP and the projected lineup includes six batters with at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year.

After the Cardinals touched him up for six runs in three innings, Tylor Megill was given an extra few days off and hasn’t pitched in over a week. Missing bats has not been a problem (26.6 K%, 20.2 K-BB%), but the contact profile is (90 mph EV, 9.3% Barrels/BBE). He’s allowed 11 home runs and 17 barrels (14.7%) over his last three starts. However a 3.72 SIERA matches a 3.72 xERA well below his 4.57 ERA. He carries upside with risk in Milwaukee (86 wRC+ at home, 92 wRC+ vs RHP), but costs less than $8K on FanDuel.

After three consecutive starts in which he allowed at least five runs in each, Logan Gilbert has allowed a total of five over his last four (22.1 IP), the biggest underlying change being five home runs allowed vs two. He’s struck out 23, while walking just there of his last 89 batters with a 19 GB%, but 87.4 mph EV. In a rookie year that has included 22 starts so far, Gilbert owns an impressive 21.3 K-BB% with all estimators more than half a run below his 4.74 ERA (67 LOB%). In fact, a 4.05 xFIP is his only estimator exceeding four. The Angels have just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP, 58 wRC+ over the last seven days and the projected lineup includes just one batter below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Costing just $6.4K on DraftKings, Gilbert may be the top lower priced value on the board.

Looking at SP2 candidates on DraftKings, Bailey Ober (19.8 K-BB% through 19 starts) costs just $6.7K, but has some issues in his contact profile. He’s allowed 19 home runs (17 HR/FB) on 24 barrels (9.6%) and faces the Blue Jays. You may not be able to call Jose Suarez an above average starting option, but he’s surely been at least competent over 12 starts with an 11 K-BB%, 86.8 mph EV, 4.43 ERA and 4.44 xFIP. He also costs only $6.3K against the Mariners (93 wRC+ vs LHP, five in projected lineup above a 23 K% vs LHP). Although it comes with just one quality start, due to workload issues, Paolo Espino has a 29.7 K% (21.9 K-BB%) with a 3.45 ERA and xFIP over his last six starts. He’s in a tough spot in Cincinnati (Reds 104 wRC+ at home, 103 wRC+ vs RHP, only three projected batters above a 21.3 K% vs RHP), but costs just $6.6K.

While 10 of 14 pitchers on a seven game slate cost less than $9K on at least one site tonight, we’re dealing with two opener situations. Ryan Yarbrough has been mentioned as getting the bulk of the innings against the Blue Jays, but he’s probably in no hurry to get in there considering what the Blue Jays did in Baltimore this weekend and that he’s struck out just seven of the last 74 batters he’s faced. Spencer Howard basically served as an opener last time out and never really exceeds a single time through the order anyway, so that’s half the board gone already if you’re considering a lower priced arm. The remaining seven are sort of difficult to separate, so we’ll quickly hit on all of them.

Alek Manoah has collected just two quality starts over his last five attempts, striking out more than five just once (18.3 K%, 9.0 SwStr%). Velocity has been trending down slightly, and his only season estimator remaining below four is a 3.63 xERA (86.9 mph EV) that’s very much in line with a 3.71 ERA. The projected Tampa Bay lineup does include six batters exceeding a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season though. Earlier in the year, we were all just waiting for Eduardo Rodriguez’s ERA to catch up with estimators more than two runs lower and while the 6.20 ERA over his last four starts also comes with much lower estimators, this time those estimators are still well above four, entirely due to a low strikeout rate (16.1%). You could certainly understand a pitcher who missed all of 2020 due to COVID induced cardiomyopathy tiring late in a long season, but his velocity is fine as is his walk rate and exit velocity. In fact, he’s had an above average SwStr% in each of his last two starts as well, so let’s go back to those season estimators around three and a half with a .358 BABIP and 66.9 LOB%. E-Rod gets a park upgrade and five of nine projected Mariners exceed a 23 K% vs LHP.

Over his last six starts, Jake Odorizzi has allowed just 10 runs with a near average 21.4 K%, resulting in a 2.90 ERA, but 3.78 FIP (7.7 HR/FB) and 4.75 xFIP (83.8 LOB%). The other problem is that while he’s completed five innings in all five, he hasn’t finished six innings in any. In fact, he’s only done that twice this year. Unfortunate because five batters in the Texas projected lineup strike out at least a quarter of the time against RHP, but Odorizzi costs more than $7.5K on either site. Rich Hill has shown some signs of life lately, striking out 20 of his last 68 with a 14.7 SwStr%, while allowing just three runs in 17 innings, but the caveat is that this was all against the Marlins and Nationals. Estimators hover around four and a half, a bit more than half a run above his 3.82 ERA and the Cardinals have hit LHP well (110 wRC+ vs LHP). Zac Gallen’s 26.8 K% is a full point below his career average, but still above league average. However, his 9.3 SwStr% is two points below his career average, which is hopefully the byproduct of an injury marred season. He’s allowed 15 home runs (15.5 HR/FB), but barrels at a below average rate (7.8%). Estimators are all below his 4.32 ERA, but only his DRA (3.62) by more than half a run. He faces the Dodgers though.

The remaining two are Paolo Espino and Logan Gilbert. Paolo Espino has struck out 25 of his last 81 batters, walking just four, but still allowed 11 runs over 19.2 innings with just one-third of his contact on the ground. While he struck out seven in his last start, his velocity plummeted, while allowing five runs. Aside from exceptional control (4.8 BB%), the rest of his profile is unremarkable with a 20.4 K% and 11.6% Barrels/BBE. Contact neutral estimators are in the lower fours with a 4.71 xERA that’s 0.36 points above his ERA. However, he costs just $6.1K on DraftKings and the projected lineup for the Marlins includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP. The strikeout rate is down to 21% over his last five starts (26% on the season), but Gilbert has allowed just two runs over 9.1 innings against the Astros in his last two starts with just a 20 GB%, but 16.3 SwStr%. With a 20.5 K-BB%, a 5.10 ERA is the product of a 65.8 LOB%. His worst estimator is a 4.05 xFIP. The Red Sox have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP with the projected lineup including a combination of high and low strikeout rates, but Gilbert pitchers in a very pitcher friendly park and costs $7K or less. To sum all of this up, if you’re not paying up for Sandy Alcantara tonight…good luck.