Manuel Margot Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Martin Perez has increased his strikeout rate to around 18% each of the last two years, which still isn’t much, especially with last year’s 10.7 BB%, but the Red Sox brought him back anyway, despite not clearing a 4.50 ERA in any of the last four seasons. His only usefulness is in an 86.2 mph EV since 2019, but even then, his ground ball rate dropped to 38.5% last year, resulting in 14 Barrrels in 62 innings last year. Luckily for him, only eight of those left the yard or the results would have been even worse. Difficult to see what Boston sees in him. There are plenty of strikeouts in this Tampa Bay lineup, but some right-handed thump as well. Against RHBs, Perez has allowed a .344 wOBA since 2019. While Manuel Margot hasn’t typically been one of those sluggers (.129 ISO vs LHP since 2019), he does have a 125 wRC+ vs LHP over that span. He also hit five HRs last post-season and has started the 2021 season with a 220 wRC+. Perhaps he’s ready to take his game to the next level. Regardless, he may be one of the better values on the board tonight, projected in the leadoff spot, as he could be on base when the more expensive thump behind him comes to the plate.

For his career, Steven Brault has a 4.62 ERA, 5.13 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA with a 6.5% K-BB and 9.5% SwStr. He also has a career .348 xwOBA allowed with an 87.5 aEV, but does do a good job preventing barreled balls with just a 5.5% barrel rate. This includes innings pitched as both a starter and as a reliever, as he has appeared in 76 games and started only 22 of them. As a starter, Brault has a 4.37 ERA, 5.25 xFIP and 6.5% K-BB with a 1.2 HR/9. The Padres have a healthy 5.10 implied total for this matchup and have some intriguing bats for this matchup, some of them being great values across the industry. Manny Machado (.454 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Hunter Renfroe (.422), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.411), Franmil Reyes (.353), Manuel Margot (.315) and Eric Hosmer (.294) are all in play today vs. Brault. Franmil Reyes is just $4k and projects to bat in the top 5 of the order. Manny Machado has finally started to heat up with a .412 xwOBA over the past 14 days, but carries just a $4.7k price on Draftkings due to struggles earlier in the year. Hosmer projects to bat 2nd and is available for $4.2k. On Fanduel, all of these guys can be had for $3.8k or less, with Renfroe coming in as a great value there with a $3.1k price.

There aren't many spots where you'll find the Padres at nearly five implied runs (4.88) against a right-handed pitcher, but Austin Bibens-Dirx in Texas is apparently one. Considering their 72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road and 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP, there's still some merit with using Bibens-Dirx in an SP spot with a premium pitcher for just $4.6K, but batters from either side of the plate are just above a .360 xwOBA against him since last season and Padres hitters are fairly cheap too. Travis Jankowski (108 wRC+, .079 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Manny Margot (87 wRC+, 122 ISO) and Eric Hosmer (154 wRC+, .197 ISO) start off the lineup all below $4K on DraftKings, while not a single batter in the entire lineup is above $3K on FanDuel. While Hosmer is the only real hitter of the bunch, the matchup and price dictate the value of the speedier hitters above him. Cory Spangenberg (114 wRC+, .186 ISO) has some value in the fifth spot as well.

Though still just barely upper half of the board, a 4.47 implied run line is really kind of below average for Texas, but their 89 wRC+ against LHP, the Padres have some RHBs who can mash. Batters from that side of the plate have a .322 wOBA against Cole Hamels since last year, but a .348 xwOBA with a 41.6 Hard%. He's allowed 18 HRs this season, 11 of them to RHBs at home. He's allowed a HR in each of his home starts this season and multiple HRs in five of the seven. Christian Villanueva (222 wRC+, .406 xwOBA, .494 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Manuel Margot (110 wRC+, .209 ISO), Hunter Renfroe (157 wRC+, .356 ISO) are all candidates to do some damage for less than $4K on DraftKings. Everyone in the lineup, including Wil Myers (92 wRC+, .210 ISO) is below $3K on FanDuel. This is one possible path to affording Justin Verlander.

The San Diego Padres have an implied run line above 4.5 at Coors tonight, but...this is not a pretty spot. In addition to weather concerns, the Padres are down almost an entire middle of the order (Hosmer, Villanueva, Renfroe) against a lefty with some extreme splits. Kyle Freeland doesn't miss a lot of right-handed bats (3.8% at home in his career), but has held RHBs to a .322 wOBA at Coors due to a 61.5 GB% and 0.8 Hard-Soft%. If you believe Franchy Cordero (88 wRC+, .182 ISO, 44.4 Hard% vs LHP) can make contact (LHBs 34.1 K% vs Freeland at Coors), he could be the most interesting choice (LHBs .346 wOBA, 35.6 GB%, 36.7 Hard% vs Freeland at Coors). The Padres still have a few right-handed bats proficient against LHP though: Manuel Margot (106 wRC+, .181 ISO), Wil Myers (109 wRC+, .201 ISO, 52.5 Hard%), and Jose Pirela (141 wRC+, .237 ISO), all in the same range as Cordero on FanDuel, but a bit more expensive on DraftKings.

Tyler Anderson has been frustratingly inconsistent since one of the best rookie pitcher seasons the Rockies have seen in 2016 and that's continued this year with one strong start and one terrible before he even sees Coors. While it should be noted that the strong one was in San Diego last time out, the Padres have some left-mashers (RHBs .359 wOBA vs Anderson since last season) that should play here, even with Wil Myers out. Jose Pirela (148 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Hunter Renfroe (176 wRC+, .363 ISO) are surprisingly cheap on either site on this spot with Christian Villanueva (seven HRs in 59 career PAs overall) a bit more expensive after hammering three HRs in a single game last week. Manuel Margot (109 wRC+, .182 ISO) adds some speed at the top of the order for a team with the third highest implied run line tonight (4.69).

Chase Anderson had a career high 23.4 K% and 10.2 SwStr% and although his estimators were well above his 2.74 ERA due to an 80.6 LOB% and 8.6 HR/FB in power friendly park, Statcast was more of a believer with a .273 xwOBA and 84.4 mph aEV. Batters from either side had a wOBA below .300 and Anderson has a career reverse split. While the Padres added this season's most expensive free agent and has a fine young crop of players, they're not there yet and this is not a lineup to be feared. Petco is still a pitcher's park. Jose Pirela (113 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Wil Myers (108 wRC+, .225 ISO) are the biggest threats against same-handed pitching, though Manuel Margot (82 wRC+, .129 ISO) is a speedster, who some see gaining power and having a breakout year in 2018.

Edwin Jackson has a 3.86 ERA, but a 4.79 SIERA, which is actually the lowest of his ERA estimators (5.18 xFIP, 5.88 FIP, 5.89 DRA). At first glance, a .262 BABIP seems primarily responsible, but he's actually surrendered 22 runs in 35 innings, but 31.8% of them (seven) have been unearned. His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is a slate high and players should probably consider attacking him thoroughly tonight. Except that his 4.4 Hard-Soft% isn’t terrible and his 10.7 K-BB% is not too far below league average, while his 10.3 SwStr% is above it. And he's facing the Padres (25.3 K% vs RHP) at Petco. Nobody is suggesting rostering Jackson (RHBs .377 wOBA, 34.2 Hard%/LHBs .340 wOBA, 31.6 hard% since last season), but this is a lukewarm spot with the Padres implied for 4.35 runs, towards the middle of the board. Cory Spangenberg (127 wRC+, .19O ISO vs RHP this season) has gone on a sudden power binge (287 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%), but is now the most expensive bat in the lineup. Wil Myers (99 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Pirela (132 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) are the ones who have shown the most power vs RHPs this year. Both have a hard hit rate of at least half their batted balls over the last week. Manuel Margot (84 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) and Yangervis Solarte (119 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP)...are in the lineup too. Players can pick and choose the necessary Padres to fill out their lineups tonight, but doesn't appear an optimal spot for offensive firepower, even with Edwin Jackson on the mound opposing them.

With just two part time players (Cameron Rupp 308 & Matt Szczur 306) above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.) players may need to lower their expectations for the league's hottest bats, although Rupp has three HRs over the last seven days as well. Jose Altuve (287 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, one HR) could have a big night against Jordan Zimmermann (RHBs .365 wOBA since last season) and has to be considered one of the top batters on the slate. Manuel Margot (287 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is coming off a strong home stand, but actually transitions to a park that's much harder on RH power in Pittsburgh against a pitcher who has stifled RHBs this year (299 wOBA vs Chad Kuhl since last season). Luis Valbuena (282 wRC+, 70 Hard%, three HRs) is unlikely to see opportunities against J.A. Happ. James McCann (280 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 0 HRs) only has 12 PAs over the last week, but now has a 146 wRC+ with a .308 ISO and 46.1 Hard% against LHP since last season. While he faces Dallas Keuchel tonight (RHBs .308 wOBA since last season), he hasn't seen major league action in nearly two months and may not be up to his normal standards. Austin Jackson (274 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, 0 HRs) hasn't hit the ball particularly hard and has only the requisite 10 PAs, but he's in a great spot (RHBs .494 wOBA vs Derek Holland since the start of June) and has pummeled LHP this year (168 wRC+, .250 ISO, 34.7 Hard%).