MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 30th)
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, April 30th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Ah, another Tuesday. The only day of the week without a feel. Anyway, we’ve got a big ol’ 12-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings to discuss. Bats around the league have started to heat up of late following a largely cool April, and tomorrow it’ll be May. Offense will continue to perk up as we get closer and closer to the summer months, but tonight’s slate looks extremely deep on the pitching side of things.
There are 10 pitchers you can make a clear case to roster, while a handful of others warrant some large-field tournament consideration. There’s also just one pitcher at $10,000 or above, and he’s really the only one currently projected to pull super-high ownership.
This has the makings of a fun one, so let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- SF/BOS gets a GREEN/YELLOW with rain expected to move into Boston late and likely after the game is already over.
- CHC/NYM looks like the diciest game of the bunch, but we’ve only got a YELLOW here. There’s a chance for an in-game delay with scattered showers surrounding Queens throughout the evening, but there’s also a chance they’ll just have to deal with light rain.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Yu Darvish will come off the injured list to start for the Padres at home against the visiting Reds. Darvish was dealing with neck stiffness, and this will be his first outing since April 14th. Both the RG and THE BAT projections have Darvish expected to throw around 80 pitches.
- Zack Wheeler was originally supposed to start tonight’s game in Anaheim, but he will instead take the mound on Wednesday. Spencer Turnbull will toe the rubber tonight.
- Simeon Woods Richardson will make a 2nd start for the Twins in place of the struggling Louie Varland against the White Sox. SWR was just $4,000 for his outing last week against Chicago, but tonight he’s up to $7,000. The right-hander whiffed 6 while allowing a couple of runs on 7 hits through 5 innings in last week’s outing. He should have a full leash again here, as he tossed 94 pitches in that one.
- The Astros called Joey Loperfido up from Triple-A on Monday, though no corresponding move has been announced just yet. I’d imagine Jon Singleton or Grae Kessinger will be optioned to make room on the roster. Unfortunately, Loperfido isn’t in the DK player pool as of this writing.
- Salvador Perez was a scratch from the Royals lineup yesterday with back tightness, though we have him projected to return tonight and hit clean-up against Jose Berrios. Freddy Fermin would presumably draw another start behind the plate if Perez sits.
- Josh Lowe was expected to return from the IL over the weekend, but he’s reportedly still dealing with hamstring tightness. Richie Palacios will continue to see regular playing time in the outfield with Lowe sidelined.
- The Mets are expected to bring Starling Marte off the bereavement list. He’s missed the last 3 games, but he’s likely to replace Tyrone Taylor in the Mets’ outfield tonight.
- Tyler Stephenson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were reportedly available to play off the bench last night but never wound up getting into the game. Both players are dealing with hand injuries. Luke Maile would get the nod again behind the plate if Stephenson doesn’t start. Jeimer Candelario started over Encarnacion-Strand last night at first base.
- Miguel Sano has missed the last 3 games for the Angels with knee soreness. Cole Tucker picked up a start at DH last night, while Ehire Adrianza is playing third base with Anthony Rendon already on the IL.
- Masataka Yoshida left Sunday’s game against the Cubs with a left hand injury, which puts his status for tonight’s clash with the Giants into question. We do have him projected to start and bat 6th, as the injury isn’t believed to be serious.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- I think you’re better off casting a wide net with pitching tonight, which certainly isn’t always the case. Freddy Peralta ($10,000) is the headliner from a raw projection and pOWN% standpoint ahead of his clash at home against a very underwhelming Rays lineup. Tampa Bay’s projected 9 is whiffing at a 24.7% clip with a middling .152 ISO against RHP through the first month of the season. Peralta has checked all the boxes, with a 33.3% K rate of his own next to a 2.80 SIERA through 5 starts. Understandable chalk, to be sure.
- You don’t have to go all-in on Peralta though, because there’s a lot else to like out there too. Logan Webb ($8,300) continues to be underpriced. His track record says his current 17% strikeout rate is due to rise a bit moving forward, but he’s still generating ground balls (59.7%). Going into Fenway is a park downgrade, but the Red Sox appear to be a legitimately weak offense this season. The projected lineup has struck out 24.1% against RHP this season, and the bottom of the order is particularly weak.
- It’s weird to see Reynaldo Lopez ($9,500) coming in with a salary $900 higher than that of Luis Castillo ($8,600), but we live in weird times, indeed. Castillo’s once-reliable ground-ball stuff seems to have vanished over the past couple of seasons, but the strikeouts are still there. He gets the tougher draw of the two starters in this game against that stacked Atlanta offense, but the ballpark could help mute their power a bit. Lopez has been terrific since earning a spot in the Braves rotation, and Seattle is striking out a ton against RHP this season (29.7%). Lopez does project well enough, but I’m inclined to take the savings on Webb and Castillo before I pay up for him.
- Jon Gray ($7,300 vs. WAS), Hunter Brown ($6,800 vs. CLE), and Mitch Keller ($8,800 at OAK) are reasonable options in favorable matchups, while I don’t hate the idea of chasing strikeouts with the underrated MacKenzie Gore ($8,100), despite a difficult spot against the Rangers in Arlington.
- I’ll likely be playing some Jon Gray simply for the salary relief, but I’ll also be attacking him with Nationals stacks in other lineups. His 29.1% strikeout rate is likely unsustainable, and Washington’s projected lineup has just a 19.3% K rate against RHP this season. Gray’s walk and barrel rates are both north of 10% as well. Lefties have done damage against him (.413 wOBA), and Washington has 5 decent lefties in the projected lineup. The red-hot CJ Abrams (.275 ISO) is the headliner, while Jesse Winker ($3,900), Luis Garcia ($3,300), and Keibert Ruiz ($3,300) are useful values. I like this stack quite a bit if you’re paying up for pitching.
- We should probably talk about the Phillies, who have one of the higher implied run totals (4.75) on this pitching-heavy slate. Tyler Anderson will cobble together a decent outing every now and again, but this is really just a low-strikeout ball-thrower yielding an 11.5% barrel rate early on. He’s been lucky (1.78 ERA), but his 5.07 SIERA says regression is imminent. Trea Turner, JT Realmuto, and Alec Bohm are going to be the right-handed top targets in any Phillies stack, but I’m happy to get to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber against a lefty that won’t be missing bats. I fear Nick Castellanos may be washed, but he does have a long track record of success against LHP. If any stack is going to be the chalk, I’d guess it’ll be the Phillies.
- The Dodgers are also hitting baseballs tonight after they struck out a grand total of zero times last night against Tommy Henry and friends. Tonight’s matchup against the respectable Jordan Montgomery isn’t a breeze, but this is a lot of power for him to navigate from either side of the plate. Mookie Betts continues to roast LHP (.449 wOBA and .244 ISO this season), while Teoscar Hernandez (.294 ISO) and Will Smith (.185 ISO) are the next targets on the wish list. Andy Pages ($3,300) is a nice value bat with some power upside. Freddie Freeman is the expensive bat I’d be most inclined to fade.
- Minnesota could be a useful source of value again, though some of their hitters come with the usual pinch-hit risk. Mike Soroka simply hasn’t bounced back well after a few major injuries, as evidenced by his woeful 9.8% strikeout rate this season. His 6.11 SIERA says his 6.83 ERA is justified, and the Twins are smoking RHP this season (.203 ISO). Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, and Edouard Julien are all $4,400 or under, while you can save even more salary with Carlos Santana ($3,100) or Willi Castro ($3,300).
- Value bats on my radar include Lawrence Butler ($2,300), Tommy Pham ($3,200), Nick Senzel ($2,500), Whit Merrifield ($3,000), Gary Sanchez ($3,000), Andrew Vaughn ($3,000), and Seth Brown ($3,100).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
Thanks for reading, and good luck out there tonight!
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