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  • Tyler O'Neill

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Surprisingly Poor Numbers Against Same-Handed Batters

    A recent New York Times article highlighted Tyler Mahle as being one of the most affected pitchers in the league since the new sticky substance enforcement policy went into effect. The good news is that he’s still missing a lot of bats (29.8 K%, 14.6 SwStr%), but over his last five starts, Mahle has allowed six home runs (of his 14 on the year) and 17 runs (16 earned) over 26.1 IP with a one mph increase in his average exit velocity. His 5.47 ERA nearly matches a 5.45 FIP over this span. The good news is that the upside remains, but it now comes with more risk in a dangerous park. An incredibly shocking number for a guy with an ERA and estimators still below four for the season is that same-handed batters have a .358 wOBA against him this season and while Statcast is a bit more forgiving (.329 xwOBA) that still leaves Mahle in a dangerous spot in a tough park against a predominantly right-handed lineup tonight. While the St Louis offense hasn’t been particularly potent this season, especially against RHP (86 wRC+, 11.5 HR/FB)), they get a pretty significant park upgrade tonight and one guy who has certainly been carrying his share of the load is Tyler O’Neill (139 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP), who costs less than $4K on either site. Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (126 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the only other two batters in the projected lineup with a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 vs RHP this year. Oddsmakers are failing to see the flaw in Mahle’s game, as they have the Cardinals implied for just 4.21 runs tonight.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 10.58 proj
    • 3.02 pt/$
    • $3,500
    • 8.07 proj
    • 2.07 pt/$
    • $3,900
  • Austin Hays

    Baltimore Orioles

    Top Value on the Board Facing Pitcher Pummeled by RHBs

    While it’s been entirely against the Padres and Dodgers, Patrick Corbin has struck out just eight of 79 batters over his last three starts. He’s now at a point where is 5.66 ERA is actually above most of his estimators, but right in line with a 5.73 xERA. One might think he gets some relief against in Baltimore tonight, but it’s a very power friendly park and the Orioles are no slouch against LHP (107 wRC+). In fact, Baltimore bats might be some of the top values on the slate, especially on FanDuel, where Trey Mancini (151 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP) and Cedric Mullins (138 wRC+, .187 ISO) are the only projected starters above $3K. Austin Hays (153 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the universal value play tonight for less than $3K on either site. RHBs have pummeled Corbin for a .373 wOBA with an xwOBA just two points lower this year and Baltimore is projected to stack the lineup entirely from that side. While the Orioles carry a healthy 4.74 implied run line tonight that’s just the 10th best number on the board, suggesting many players may overlook this potent spot.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 11.76 proj
    • 4.06 pt/$
    • $2,900
    • 9.1 proj
    • 3.25 pt/$
    • $2,800
  • Chris Taylor

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    A Tough Home Park is Not Why This Pitcher Struggles

    One look at the top of the team run lines tonight makes one think that the Dodgers are facing a the Rockies at Coors. After all, they top the board by more than a quarter of a run at 5.74 implied runs. That’s not the case though. They are actually hosting the Rockies at Dodger Stadium tonight and while Statcast Park Factors suggest that this is much more neutral run environment than we’re used to in recent years, this is still a surprising number. But perhaps it shouldn’t be and maybe the question we need to ask is: Why is Chi Chi Gonzalez still starting games in this league? The Dodgers have put up 10 runs against him in nine innings this season. A 4.94 xFIP is his only estimator below five, while his xERA is approaching seven. You might believe that batters having a wOBA within seven points of .370 against Gonzalez this year is mostly a product of Coors, but you’d be wrong because Statcast neutralizes those numbers to a .362 xwOBA for LBHs and .415 for RHBs. That oddsmakes favor the Dodgers so much with half the lineup missing really says a lot, but Chris Taylor (120 wRC+, .157 ISO) might be the top overall bat on the slate in the leadoff spot. He has a 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days and has already homered several times since the break. Justin Turner (150 wRC+, .179 ISO), Will Smith (164 wRC+, .271 ISO) and A.J. Pollock (132 wRC+, .257 ISO) aren’t far behind and all exceed a 125 wRC+ over the last month. Looking at the projected lineup, the value here might be Matt Beaty (110 wRC+, .124 ISO) at near the minimum. If he’s not near the top of the lineup there may be another cheap Dodger bat who will be as they look to tee off on Chi Chi Gonzalez once again.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 13.43 proj
    • 3.73 pt/$
    • $3,600
    • 10.27 proj
    • 1.80 pt/$
    • $5,700
  • J.T. Realmuto

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Combination of Factors Makes Under the Radar Offense Interesting

    It makes a little bit of sense why Joe Girardi gave J.T. Realmuto last night off when looking at his career numbers against Max Fried. In just 22 PAs, Realmuto (121 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this year) has five extra base hits, including two home runs and a triple with a .421 xwOBA. He’s not the only one in the lineup with strong numbers against Fried either. Bryce Harper (116 wRC+, .114 ISO) also has two home runs in 18 PAs with a .520 xwOBA. On their own, these small sample sizes don’t mean much, but Fried hasn’t shown much of a split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .305 and .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him. In a positive run environment with a hitter friendly umpire, this might be a more interesting spot for the Philadelphia offense than oddsmakers expect (4.18 implied run line) Harper, who has a overall 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days, makes for an exceptionally unconventional play facing a left-handed pitcher. Andrew McCutchen (173 wRC+, .315 ISO) is running a 137 wRC+ over the last month and may be the real value play here for just $3.6K on DraftKings, while Jean Segura (134 wRC+, .170 ISO) is just $100 more.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 10.81 proj
    • 3.28 pt/$
    • $3,300
    • 8.31 proj
    • 1.70 pt/$
    • $4,900
  • Eric Haase

    Detroit Tigers

    Surging Offense Also Offers Salary Relief

    By combination of ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days, the Kansas City Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball and they could see a lot of action tonight, considering what Kris Bubic has given them in a starting role this season. Splitting his time between the rotation and pen, Bubic has a 5.03 that’s right on his 5.05 SIERA and 5.08 xFIP without a single estimator running lower. He’s had two stretches of at least four outings where he’s generated a ground ball rate above 55%, but has otherwise been very home run prone (19.1 HR/FB) with just a 45.4 GB% for the season in addition to a 7.3 K-BB% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE. After an abysmal start to the season, the Tigers are actually up to a 95 wRC+ vs LHP this season and tonight’s projected lineup includes just two batters below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Detroit also has a 133 team wRC+ since the break. Add in some hitter friendly weather in Kansas City with the wind blowing out to left field and it now all makes sense why the Tigers are the lowest of seven teams above five implied runs tonight. That they have the ability to stack the lineup almost entirely right-handed actually doesn’t matter much as batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Bubic this year. The most enticing part of this equation is that Detroit bats are very affordable with most projected starters below $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. One such value on FanDuel is Eric Haase (205 wRC+, .446 ISO vs LHP) for just $2.9K, even if we still expect his numbers to regress. Jonathan Schoop (159 wRC+, .260 ISO) is one of the more expensive bats in the lineup, but certainly appears worth the cost. Robbie Grossman (147 wRC+, .242 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Considering the lack of low priced pitching options on tonight’s board, stacking Tigers in Kansas City offers some salary relief as well as potency.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 11.36 proj
    • 3.92 pt/$
    • $2,900
    • 8.67 proj
    • 1.93 pt/$
    • $4,500
  • Frankie Montas

    Oakland Athletics

    Middle of the Board Pitching Has a Lot to Offer Tonight

    The middle of the board has quite a bit to offer tonight in terms of starting pitching and we’re going to try to quickly cover several names here. Alex Cobb has issued seven of his 25 walks this season over his last two starts behind a velocity increase. Over his last three starts (two earned runs, 19.2 IP), Cobb has dropped his ERA below four though, where his estimators have stood all season on the basis of a 26.2 K%, 54.9 GB% and 3.6% Barrels/BBE. A Minnesota lineup without Nelson Cruz projects not only less power, but four batters above 30 K% vs RHP this year. The league average ERA and estimators for a starting pitcher are around 4.20 this season. Has anyone noticed that Johnny Cueto is below that (4.01 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.05 FIP). Okay, his remaining estimators are a bit higher with a 4.83 xERA being the most pessimistic, but he’s been more than a serviceable fifth starter in an unexpectedly loaded rotation. The 20.1 K% is respectable with great control (4.6 BB%). He’s in a favorable run prevention spot (Pirates 87 wRC+, 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a negative run environment for $7.5K on DraftKings, where he’s not going to win anyone a GPP, but could hold the fort as an SP2.

    About a month ago, Eduardo Rodriguez was the most obvious regression candidate in the league with estimators nearly around three runs below an enormous ERA and right on cue, he has a 2.83 ERA over his last five starts while those estimators have gotten even better. Aside from a rogue 4.18 DRA, all are packed tightly between a 3.34 xFIP and 3.65 xFIP. With a 21.9 K-BB% and 87.1 mph EV, one wonders how this man still has a 5.19 ERA. While the Yankees have a 112 wRC+ and 17.7 HR/FB vs LHP, the lineup is a bit light at the moment, but the unfavorable run environment is a concern. Another lefty with a somewhat difficult matchup (A’s 101 wRC+ vs LHP), but a much more favorable park is Yusei Kikuchi. Partially because he pitches in a division with some strong right-handed hitting, Kikuchi seems to be facing a lefty-mashing lineup nearly every time out, yet he has still prevailed with an ERA, SIERA and xFIP all below four, though the FIP (22.5 HR/FB), DRA and xERA (91.1 mph EV, 9.8% Barrels/BBE) stretch to nearly four and a half. Kikuchi has struck out 25.2% of the batters he’s faced and may be a bit better than his contact profile suggests against more neutral competition. Really. Go look at his game log.

    Frankie Montas’s 4.33 ERA is very much in line with his DRA (4.39) and xERA (4.27), but those are the worst of his estimators with the remainder below four, though only his FIP (3.73) stretches more than half a run from actual results. Montas has an above average strikeout rate (24.4%) with good control (6.3%), though the contact profile can get him in trouble occasionally (9.6% Barrels/BBE). Montas has nine quality starts this season and there’s a lot to like in his matchup. Seattle is one of the most negative run environments in the league, while the projected home lineup includes five batters above a 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. For less than $9K, Montas has the opportunity to be the top value on the board. The last pitcher of interest is Zach Plesac, who hasn’t been very efficient in two starts back from the IL (10 IP – 40 BF – 5 ER – 3 HR – 1 BB – 7 K). In fact, it’s starting to look like his strikeout spike last year was a fluke. Or, perhaps, it’s this year’s 16.4 K% is the fluke with a 12.1 SwStr%. The control has been elite (4.7 BB%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.1%). We should probably expect an increase in strikeout rate, potentially starting tonight with the Rays, whose projected lineup includes six batters above a 26 K% vs RHP.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 33.37 proj
    • 3.88 pt/$
    • $8,600
    • 17.97 proj
    • 2.07 pt/$
    • $8,700
  • Lucas Giolito

    Chicago White Sox

    One Top Arm is in a Favorable Spot Tonight

    One a slate one game short of the full 15, Gerrit Cole tops the board at exactly $10K on DraftKings and $500 more on FanDuel with Zach Wheeler the only other pitcher reaching $10K tonight and is within $200 of that price on either site. In fact, Lucas Giolito and Freddy Peralta are the only other two pitchers above $9K on both sites too. In a four start span from mid-June (coincidentally) to early July, Cole had just a 22 K%. He has since proceeded to strike out 23 of 56 Astros and Red Sox over 15 innings of one run ball. There are no particular trends in his pitch usage that alters from previous outings and just a slight uptick in his slider spin rate. In fact, the only significant difference to be found is in opponent’s swing rates. The Red Sox and Astros took more pitches against Cole than most other teams have this year. It’s a bit befuddling without a deeper look. Estimators are all with a half a run of his 2.63 ERA with only his DRA (3.13) exceeding three. The Red Sox have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP and strike out an average amount, though the positive run environment is a bit of a draw back here. Cole still has the potential to be the top pitcher on any slate he’s on, but the best approach tonight is probably to play the ownership game and do whatever is the opposite of his projection.

    After a two start stumble against the Dodgers and Nationals, it looked like Wheeler had gotten back on track against the Mets and Padres the next two times out, but he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) to the Cubs and Marlins since. The good news is that he’s struck out 13 of 53 with three walks, one home run and more than half his contact on the ground over this span and has had an exit velocity below 83 mph. Seems like some BABIP issues are afoot. A 30.6 K%, 84.6 mph EV and 11 starts of at least seven innings makes Wheeler one of the top pitchers in the league and a fine daily fantasy asset. The Braves have just a 99 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs RHP with most of the top half of last year’s dynamic lineup gone. In fact, just two batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a .311 wOBA against RHP this season. The drawback here, again, is the park and potentially the most hitter friendly umpire on the slate.

    Giolito and Peralta face off against each other in a neutral run environment. Peralta’s 35.1 K% tops the board, while an 11.4 BB% hasn’t slowed him down too much with a 2.39 ERA and eight quality starts in his last 11. The .178 BABIP and 84.8 LOB% have helped with regression expecting something in the mid-threes and potentially shorter outings if he has to pay for the free passes, which may more quickly run up his pitch count. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ and 10.5 BB% vs RHP, which could present some problems here. They lose the DH In an NL park, but still project a potent lineup. It may not be the Cy Young caliber season White Sox fans were hoping for, but Giolito’s 3.90 ERA perfectly matches his 3.90 FIP with a 31.6 GB% and 15.3 HR/FB. The good news is that his contact profile spits out a 3.37 xERA, which is his best estimator with a strikeout rate a few inches south of 30% (29.2%). While the Brewers do have some power (14.6 HR/FB vs RHP), they also have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP and four of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 26 K% vs RHP this season. Considering the matchup, Giolito may be the top arm on the board tonight.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 35.41 proj
    • 3.61 pt/$
    • $9,800
    • 19.64 proj
    • 2.05 pt/$
    • $9,600
  • Michael Brantley

    Houston Astros

    Affordable Bats in Highly Projected Offense

    Through six starts, Eli Morgan’s major league numbers are much better than any of his minor league work or any scouting reports ever suggested…at least from the standpoint of his strikeout to walk ratio. He’s struck out a league average 23.5% of batters (11.1 SwStr%) with excellent control (4.2%). The 21.7 GB% with a 90 mph EV has been a problem, as he’s allowed nine home runs. To illustrate how volatile this profile is, he has a 4.27 SIERA, 4.77 xFIP and then his next best estimator is a 5.88 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. As a result, the Astros have the second highest implied run line on the board currently, at 5.22. Michael Brantley (175 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP this year) has been an integral part of this offense near the top of the lineup, which begs the question: why is he so cheap? Brantley costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, where he’s one of the top (if not the top) values on the board. He’s probably a strong value for $200 less on FanDuel as well. Another batter who remains surprisingly affordable on DraftKings is Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .250 ISO). Without much in the way of viable cheap pitching, players are probably going to have sacrifice some high priced offense tonight. It seems the left-handed portion of the Houston offense can help relieve that burden.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 11.02 proj
    • 3.44 pt/$
    • $3,200
    • 8.51 proj
    • 2.36 pt/$
    • $3,600
  • Bryce Harper

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Lots of Fly Balls in a Dangerous Park

    We don’t yet have an implied run line for either team at Yankee Stadium tonight because there are still plenty of uncertainties in this game, but one thing we do know is that Asher Wojachoo…Asher Wojaho…Asher is starting for the Yankees tonight and he has a career ground ball rate below 30%, while allowing a .394 wOBA to LHBs. We also know that Bryce Harper (154 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP this season) will be swinging for that short porch in right field tonight. Harper leads the projected lineup with a 167 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Another thing to know is that while RHBs have a much lower .339 wOBA against Asher, that’s still fairly strong and his ground ball rate is actually lower against RHBs, while he’s allowed just two fewer home runs in nine fewer PAs. That means that Rhys Hoskins (102 wRC+, .231 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (120 wRC+, .181 ISO) are certainly still in play to take him deep as well. When the line is finally released for this game, expect something around five runs for the Philadelphia side of things. A lot of traffic in the air at Yankee Stadium generally results in good things for the offense.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 11.93 proj
    • 3.14 pt/$
    • $3,800
    • 8.98 proj
    • 1.66 pt/$
    • $5,400
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    Results Against Same-Handed Batters Don't Bode Well For This Pitcher Tonight

    A Tuesday night rain out will not allow Garrett Richards to escape the Blue Jays, but only offer a one game reprieve. The Blue Jays currently have the top implied run line on the slate by nearly a full run (6.17) because Richards has a 4.91 ERA that is at least confirmed by most estimators, but also a DRA and xERA exceeding six. A 7.2 K-BB% and 91.9 mph EV is not a combination that keeps you in the contending rotation for very long. Although the Toronto lineup is predominantly right-handed, that should not hinder them here. Same handed batters have smashed Richards this year (.388 wOBA, .383 xwOBA) and Danny Jansen is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year. You’re paying up for Toronto bats tonight, but Vladimir Guerrero (204 wRC+, .375 ISO vs RHP) is in an absolute smash spot here and the top overall bat on this board and it doesn’t even seem particularly close.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 12.25 proj
    • 2.72 pt/$
    • $4,500
    • 9.3 proj
    • 1.63 pt/$
    • $5,700
  • Tim Anderson

    Chicago White Sox

    Six Extra-Base Hits in 18 PAs Against Struggling Pitcher

    Michael Pineda was awful in three June starts before hitting the IL for a month. He returned to allow five runs to these White Sox over five innings, striking out five of 25 batters without a walk, but just a 6.1 SwStr%, 35 GB% and 91.1 mph EV. His velocity, which was trending downward in June, declined even further. For the season, Pineda’s 4.11 ERA is below all of his estimators. Considering the above, the White Sox are just one of three teams above five implied runs on tonight’s eight game slate (although games in Washington and New York have yet to be posted). While Pineda has actually struggled more against LHBs this year (.340 wOBA to .314), Statcast suggests that should be reversed (.319 xwOBA to .352). In that case, Tim Anderson (128 wRC+, .154 ISO) would be an ideal candidate for daily fantasy lineups and that’s backed up by the short history these two share. In 18 PAs against Pineda, Anderson has a .487 xwOBA with three home runs and three doubles. Despite the small sample size, we can’t ignore the damage Gavin Sheets is doing to RHP (181 wRC+, .432 ISO) and that he costs less than $3.3K on either site. Lastly, we’ll note that every batter in the currently projected lineup for home team is above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 8.9 proj
    • 2.34 pt/$
    • $3,800
    • 6.99 proj
    • 1.29 pt/$
    • $5,400
  • Dylan Cease

    Chicago White Sox

    Dylan Cease is

    Should you be considering dipping below $9K for your pitching needs, Dylan Cease is your guy for exactly $8.6K on both sites. In fact, there could be an argument to be made that he’s the top pitcher on the board tonight or at least close to it, which would make him the top value. Cease may have a 4.55 ERA over his last five starts, but also a 31.9 K% and 23.5 K-BB% with just an 87.4 mph EV. That doesn’t sound like an exit velocity that might produce a 23.8 HR/FB over this span. For the season, his 4.14 ERA is a bit higher than estimators tightly ranging from a 3.67 FIP to a 3.94 xERA. Cease’s plate discipline rates are improved across the board on his Fangraphs page, which has helped him increase his K-BB% by nearly 50% over his career rate this year. The Twins do have a 101 wRC+ and 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP. This lineup is no pushover and Cease has allowed 11 runs (four home runs) in 16.1 innings against them this year, but that also includes a 20+ K-BB% that tracks nearly perfectly with his season mark. The matchup appears to be well priced into the cost already.

    If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 partner on DraftKings, the choices are even less ideal that usual. Matt Manning has the prospect pedigree and a great matchup against the Rangers (11 wRC+, 27 K% since the break), but an 8.9 K% (5.5 SwStr%), 1.0 K-BB%, 91 Z-Contact% and 90.8 mph EV through five starts. Perhaps the pitcher opposing him may be a better choice for $6.6K. Jordan Lyles allowed four home runs last time out. It’s the second time he’s done that in the span of six outings. In between, he allowed one total and six runs over 25 innings. Overall, he can’t be very effective with a 34.5 GB% and 90.6 mph EV with just a 10.5 K-BB%. Most estimators confirm his 5.20 ERA, but the Tigers have a 91 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP, though they’ve decided to stop striking out since the break. The projected lineup still includes just two batters below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Ideally, players may wish to sacrifice some offense for a Cease/McCullers combo tonight.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
  • Lance McCullers

    Houston Astros

    One Top Arm in a Favorable Spot

    On an eight game Wednesday night slate, your top of the board pitching includes four pitchers who exceed $9K on both sites and without a completely clear cut number one guy, a strong argument can be made for Lance McCullers Jr., the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and only one who reaches $10K on both sites. With a more slider heavy approach, he has rolled over his last four opponents to the tune of 33 strikeouts (105 BF) and just seven runs over 24.2 innings with 52.5% of his contact on the ground. An 11.9 BB% has been his biggest drawback this year and kept some of his estimators around four. The ground ball heavy contact profile though, has allowed him to generate just 6.2% Barrels/BBE on a 91.2 mph EV, good for a 3.46 xERA. With a .255 BABIP, 80.1 LOB% and 9.2 HR/FB, all estimators are quite a bit above his 2.80 ERA, but still on solid ground. In a neutral run environment, he faces a Cleveland offense with just an 88 wRC+ and board low 7.0 BB% vs RHP, which may help solve some of McCullers’ control issues tonight. The projected lineup includes five batters above a 30 K% vs RHP this year.

    If Robbie Ray is slightly behind McCullers tonight, it’s simply due to the matchup. He is the only pitcher on the board exceeding a 30% strikeout rate (31.9%) and the fact that he’s done so with a 6.3 BB% has made him somewhat of a fringe Cy Young contender this year, though the contact profile still remains a significant issue (41 GB%, 91.2 mph EV, 18.3 HR/FB, 9.4% Barrels/BBE). As one would suspect, a 3.81 FIP and 3.67 xERA are his worst estimators, though all are above three, a bit higher than a 2.93 ERA (90.7 LOB%). Buffalo is also a somewhat neutral run environment, but the Red Sox have a 105 wRC+ with just a 21.3 K% vs LHP. Ray is most expensive on FanDuel, but $200 behind McCullers on DraftKings.

    Julio Urias is interesting for less than $10K. Although the end result is an above average 26.8 K%, Julio Urias’s strikeout totals have had a lot of variance from start to start and just how far he goes generally depends on how exceptional his control has been (5.3 BB%), enabling him to keep his pitch count down. A 3.78 ERA is within a quarter run of all of his estimators and only below his 3.80 DRA. The Giants have a 106 wRC+, 10.9 BB% and 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP. That’s not ideal. They strike out about an average amount against southpaws and Statcast Park Factors suggest that Dodger Stadium is now a somewhat neutral run environment as well. If Urias doesn’t walk anyone, he does have quality start potential (he has nine of them, but more than one walk in just two), which would make him a better value on FanDuel ($9.1K). Kyle Hendricks has the most negative run environment of the four in his favor in St Louis against an inferior offense (Cardinals 85 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but a combination of St Louis’s 21.9 K% vs RHP and his own sub-20 K% with estimators well above his ERA makes him overvalued above $9K.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    Potential Smash Spot for Both Offenses Despite Neutral Run Environment

    Two of the top four implied run lines coming out of the same game may not be much of a surprise when Coors is on the docket, but it may be a bit more unexpected that we’re talking about two offenses in a somewhat neutral run environment, according to Statcast Park Factors. Then again, the two starting pitchers in Buffalo are Garrett Richards and Thomas Hatch against two of the most potent offenses in baseball. Hatch is expected to make a spot start for the Blue Jays. He made one last year as well, along with 16 relief appearances. This will be his first major league action of this season after eight starts at AAA (14.2 K-BB%). At 26 already, he’s an older prospect, but this year’s scouting report on Fangraphs suggests back end of the rotation potential with multiple usable pitches. That may be somewhat respectable, but the Boston lineup is projected to include four batters above a 135 wRC+ vs RHP this year (Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo and Xander Bogaerts) and at the top of the lineup, we have Enrique Hernandez (163 wRC+ last 30 days) and Jarren Duran, who costs near the minimum and hit his first major league home run last night.

    On the opposite side, Richards has a 4.91 ERA that is at least confirmed by most estimators, but also with a DRA and xERA exceeding six. A 7.2 K-BB% and 91.9 mph EV is not a combination that keeps you in the rotation for a contender for very long. Although the Toronto lineup is predominantly right-handed, even against right-handed starters, that should not hinder them here. RHBs have smashed Richards this year (.388 wOBA, .383 xwOBA) and there is not a batter in the projected lineup for the Blue Jays below a 97 wRC+ vs RHP this year. You’re paying up for Toronto bats tonight, but Vladimir Guerrero (204 wRC+, .375 ISO vs RHP) is in an absolute smash spot here.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 12.25 proj
    • 2.72 pt/$
    • $4,500
    • 9.3 proj
    • 1.63 pt/$
    • $5,700
  • Jesse Winker

    Cincinnati Reds

    Depleted Rotation & Exhausted Pen Should Add Up to Lots of Runs

    The Mets may have pulled off a couple of amazing comebacks over the last two days, but make no mistake about it, the rotation is depleted and the bullpen is exhausted. So much so that Robert Stock will be starting tonight and we have no idea who is available behind him. It wasn’t a failing of the offense that cost the Reds the game last night, as they scored 11 runs in defeat and oddsmakers are expecting them to put up some offense again tonight with a 5.71 implied run line that’s third best on the board, even if Nick Castellanos is questionable again with a wrist injury. In one start for the Mets and also one for the Cubs against the Mets, Stock has struck out and walked eight each of 39 batters with just an 8.8 SwStr%. In four starts for the Mets at AAA, he also had just a 9.0 K-BB%, while most of his work with the Cubs at AAA came out of the bullpen. It really is a mystery how the Mets plan on covering innings tonight, as they have four relievers with at least 40 pitches thrown over the last three days, including their only lefty, Aaron Loup (41 pitches Sunday). Jesse Winker (171 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP this year) had a nice night last night and may once again be one of the top overall bats available and his price tag is down to $3.9K on DraftKings. Tyler Naquin (112 wRC+, .211 ISO) may be one of the top values for the near minimum in the middle of the order. Joey Votto (138 wRC+, .222 ISO) costs less than $3K on FanDuel as well.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • 12.9 proj
    • 3.58 pt/$
    • $3,600
    • 9.66 proj
    • 2.10 pt/$
    • $4,600

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