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  • Dion Sims

    Chicago Bears

    Dion Sims and LB Danny Trevathan inactive Week 10

    He's been dealing with an illness all week and it's apparently enough to keep him sidelined today. As a result, rookie Adam Shaheen will be thrust into the top tight end role against the Packers this afternoon. Although he hasn't played much this season and has only attracted one target so far, he could jump right into an active role in the passing game given the state of Chicago's receiving corps. Unfortunately for him, the Packers have shut down tight ends this season, limiting them to the fewest PPR points per game.

    Other tagged players: Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears

    By: bryanpauquette
    Bryan Pauquette

    • injury
    • nfl
    • mlb
    • 4.24 proj
    • 0.94 pt/$
    • $4,500
    • 5.45 proj
    • 2.18 pt/$
    • $2,500
  • Cody Bellinger

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Jake Arrieta walked five in first post-season start, LHBs had a .354 wOBA this year

    Both the Cubs (4.81) and Dodgers (4.69) sport implied run lines about a run higher than the ALCS participants.While Jake Arrieta occasionally generated strikeouts and weak ground balls this year, he struggled to do both of those things often at the same time this season. Then, when it looked like he might be putting it all together, he suffered a hamstring injury that limited him to just 10.1 September innings. Despite not allowing a single run, his only post-season outing was not pretty, as he walked five of the 20 batters he faced with four strikeouts and just three ground balls. While the lack of faith Joe Maddon must have in the Chicago bullpen at this point may be the one positive for Arrieta in terms of workload tonight, he'd have to pitch exceptionally well with his team facing elimination. Arrieta had some extreme splits this season. He stifled RHBs with a .266 wOBA, 48.7 GB%, and 26.9 Hard%, but LHBs had a .354 wOBA, 40.5 GB% and 32.7 Hard%. While Corey Seager's absence makes this Dodger lineup a bit less dangerous from the LH side, Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO vs RHP) may be the highest upside bat on the board. The lineup for LA is not yet confirmed, but Curtis Granderson has three career HRs and a 1.081 OPS in 40 career PAs against Arrieta, more than twice as many PAs as any other Dodger, though Andre Ethier had a 113 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs RHP this season if he gets the nod. Ethier homered last night and costs the minimum on FanDuel. Yasmani Grandal (106 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) also has a HR and a double in 11 PAs against Arrieta, though he did not start last night either. Kevin's forecast calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with 25 mph gusts out towards center, which could give a generous boost to power hitters in this game. It appears to be Jim Wolf's turn to call balls and strikes tonight according to the umpire rotation available at TrueBlueLA.com (a popular Dodgers blog). According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 287 games, batters have a 19.4 K% and 8.1 BB% with Wolf calling pitches. That's good for a 0.95 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost, which could potentially add more value to the bats in this game.

    As reported by True Blue LA Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Andre Ethier, Yasmani Grandal, Jake Arrieta

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 8.48 proj
    • 2.12 pt/$
    • $4,000
    • 6.51 proj
    • 1.39 pt/$
    • $4,700
  • Albert Almora

    Chicago Cubs

    Albert Almora (137 wRC+ vs LHP) leads off against Alex Wood, who hasn't pitched in post-season

    Both the Cubs (4.81) and Dodgers (4.69) sport implied run lines about a run higher than the ALCS participants. At one point, Alex Wood was a dark horse Cy Young candidate before losing two miles per hour off his fastball and running a second half 3.89 ERA, 4.76 FIP and 4.19 xFIP all well above his first half numbers. While the Dodgers are up three games to none, the condition likely limiting his workload tonight is that he hasn't pitched in the post-season yet (last start on 9/26) and has only thrown 91 pitches once since the end of August. Best case scenario would seem six innings tonight. Though batters from either side had a wOBA in the .260s with a K-BB between 17 and 19%, there was a significant split in the quality of contact Wood allowed. LHBs had a 59 GB% and stunning 16.8 Hard%, while RHBs had a 50.7 GB% and 32 Hard%. The Cubs have countered this split with Albert Almora (137 wRC+, .144 ISO vs LHP) at the top of the lineup, while Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward sit. Almora costs $3.3K on DK and just $2.4K on FD. He runs the risk of being removed later in the game, but his spot at the top of the order could get him an extra PA to help compensate. This confirmed Chicago lineup had a .360 wOBA, .190 ISO and 20.8 K% against LHP this year according to PlateIQ but also a 12.6 BB% against southpaws. Kris Bryant (150 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP) is the top bat in the lineup, but from the right-hand side, both Willson Contreras and Javier Baez exceeded a 130 wRC+ and .240 ISO vs LHP this year at a much lower cost. Addison Russell (111 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP) costs $3.4K on either site. Again, it's questionable how many opportunities they'll have against LHP tonight, but another factor in their favor is Kevin's forecast, which calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with 25 mph gusts out towards center. Anthony Rizzo, Russell and Bryant all exceed 10 career PAs against Wood in their career, Bryant (one HR) is the only batter with a HR in his career against him. It appears to be Jim Wolf's turn to call balls and strikes tonight according to the umpire rotation available at TrueBlueLA.com (a popular Dodgers blog). According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 287 games, batters have a 19.4 K% and 8.1 BB% with Wolf calling pitches. That's good for a 0.95 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost, which could potentially add more value to the bats in this game.

    Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Masahiro Tanaka

    New York Yankees

    Masahiro Tanaka leads today's pitchers with a 3.52 SIERA and 25.8 K% this season

    Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Masahiro Tanaka has followed up a regular season finale in which he struck out 15 batters with 10 strikeouts of 46 post-season batters in 13 innings with a 52.9 GB%. His 11.9 Hard-Soft% this season was the highest among all four of today's starters, as was his 4.74 ERA, though his 3.52 SIERA and 25.8 K% (15.1 SwStr%) are actually the best marks among today's pitchers. Tanaka's greatest issue was the HR ball (35 allowed) and he did not discriminate. LHBs had a .316 wOBA, 16 HRs, 21.9 K-BB%, 55 GB% and 32.1 Hard%, while RHBs had a .333 wOBA, 19 HRs, 19.2 K-BB%, 45.1 GB% and 31 Hard%. This may play in Houston's favor with a lineup that leans towards RHBs who handle RHP extremely well. They repeat their Game Three lineup, which has a .354 wOBA, .200 ISO and only a 16.1 K% vs RHP this year. Every batter in the lineup had an ISO above .170 against RHP this year. Only Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann did not exceed both a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP. Carlos Correa and George Springer each have two career HRs against Tanaka in 14 PAs according to Daily Baseball Data. Jose Altuve has one HR in as many PAs. No other Houston batter has more than eight PAs against him, but Josh Reddick and Bregman also have a single HR. With both high strikeout and HR potential, exposure to both sides of this matchup is certainly warranted. Tanaka's margin for error is difficult to project. The Yankees have the strongest bullpen of the remaining teams and certainly don't want to go back to Houston facing elimination, though he seems to inspire a bit more confidence than his NLCS counterparts. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin's forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.

    Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Josh Reddick

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 34.05 proj
    • 3.62 pt/$
    • $9,400
    • 19.63 proj
    • 2.42 pt/$
    • $8,100
  • Dallas Keuchel

    Houston Astros

    Dallas Keuchel struck out a season high 10 Yankees in Game One

    Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Both the lower run lines and nature of a series tied at two may mean that the pitchers in this game have a bit longer leash than their NL counterparts, earned by their 2017 post-season resume so far. Dallas Keuchel has struck out 17 of 49 batters with a 57.1 GB% in two game starts, including striking out 10 Yankees in seven shutout innings in Game One of this series. It was one more strikeout than his season high of nine way back in May. He did lead all of today's starters with a 2.65 DRA, -0.7 Hard-Soft% and 66.8 GB% this season. LHBs had no chance against him this year with a .192 wOBA, 26.5 K-BB%, 72.9 GB% and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. RHBs were a little better (.293 wOBA, 10.1 K-BB%, 65.6 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%), though it's still hardly an ideal matchup. Today's confirmed lineup for the Yankees had a .343 wOBA, .210 ISO and 22.9 K% vs LHP this season. From the right side, Aaron Judge (149 wRC+, .265 ISO), Gary Sanchez (131 wRC+, .266 ISO), Aaron Hicks (140 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Todd Frazier (130 wRC+, .345 ISO) all punished LHP this year with Frazier perhaps the stealthiest play, but even Judge a potentially decent value with the highest price tag on the team ($4.4K DK, $3.6K FD). Hicks (17 PAs) and Chase Headley (22 PAs) each have a single HR in their career against Kuechel according to Daily Baseball Data. No other batter in tonight's lineup has more than 17 PAs or a .550 OPS against him in their career. Keuchel is at his best when he is effective down in the zone and a bit below it. If he's getting those calls, especially against Judge, it's going to make things very difficult for the Yankees. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin's forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.

    As reported by River Ave Blues Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Chase Headley

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Kyle Hendricks

    Chicago Cubs

    Kyle Hendricks had a 19.0 K-BB% and 51.8 GB% through his final eight starts

    Kyle Hendricks may not be the biggest name on the mound tonight, but he finished the season perhaps more strongly than any of today's four pitchers. Over his last eight starts, he had a 19.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB% and 0.7 Hard-Soft%, continuing that strong work, striking out 13 of 49 batters faced in two NLDS starts with a 50 GB%, though he did allow two HRs. LHBs had a .309 wOBA, 34.1 Hard% and 42.3 GB% compared to a .274 wOBA, 27.4 Hard% and 56.4 GB% for RHBs. The Dodgers have an implied run line of 3.95, within a quarter of a run of each of the three teams behind the Yankees today. He's certainly not going to have a long leash with the Cubs down two games to none, but with the lack of confidence in this bullpen right now, he should be allowed to remain in the game as long as he pitches well. With neither pitcher in the ALCS game likely to have a particularly long leash, Hendricks is a reasonable mound option by process of elimination at home tonight. Of course, the Dodgers have several potent bats against RHP. Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Yasiel Puig (136 wRC+, .266 ISO) potentially the most dangerous right now. Puig has a 266 wRC+, .438 ISO and 23.8 BB% in the post-season. Justin Turner (125 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP) has the only career HR against Hendricks and also leads the teams with 14 PAs against him. The Dodger lineup has not yet been confirmed. Kevin's forecast for this game calls for cool, but dry skies with sustained winds out towards center at around 10 mph, a small bump for hitters. Following standard umpire rotation, it would appear that crew chief Mike Winters will call balls and strikes for this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available at RotoGrinders, in 303 opportunities behind the plate, batters had a 20.1 K% and 8.3 BB%. With a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost, he could favor pitchers.

    Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Yu Darvish

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Yu Darvish struck out seven of 18 batters in his first post-season start

    The crafty Joe Maddon has manipulated his Game Three lineup, likely partially because the offense has struggled a bit, but also likely to take advantage of Yu Darvish's difficulties against LHBs, who had a .333 wOBA, 16 HRs, and 34.5 Hard% (RHBs .260 wOBA, 11 HRs, 31.6 Hard%). Darvish had an exceptional K-BB hovering around 20% against batters from either side. After finishing the season strong, Darvish struck out seven of the 18 batters he faced in his lone post-season start with five of nine batted balls on the ground. Darvish is the highest cost pitcher and despite his struggles with LHBs, may be the one with the most upside today too. The Cubs have a 4.05 implied run line which is technically third, but with less than a quarter of a run separating all three teams behind the Yankees. Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (109 wRC+, .276 ISO) are the key LHBs against Darvish. Schwarber costs $3.3K or less on either site to go along with his lineup bump into the second spot in the order. Ben Zobrist (94 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) costs between $3.2K and $3.5K on either site and is the only player in the lineup with more than four PAs against Darvish. In 14 attempts, he does not have an extra-base hit. Kevin's forecast for this game calls for cool, but dry skies with sustained winds out towards center at around 10 mph, a small bump for hitters. Following standard umpire rotation, it would appear that crew chief Mike Winters will call balls and strikes for this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available at RotoGrinders, in 303 opportunities behind the plate, batters had a 20.1 K% and 8.3 BB%. With a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost, he could favor pitchers.

    Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 40.7 proj
    • 4.11 pt/$
    • $9,900
    • 24.37 proj
    • 1.98 pt/$
    • $12,300
  • George Springer

    Houston Astros

    Sonny Gray struggled in his first post-season outing, 11 HRs in 11 starts for Yankees

    Sonny Gray has not pitched since October 5th when Cleveland touched him up for three runs in 3.1 innings. He faced 17 batters, with four walks, two strikeouts and a HR allowed. Only 40% of his contact was on the ground. As a Yankee, he allowed 11 HRs in 11 starts with just an 11.5 K-BB% and 47.3 GB%. With Sabathia and Warren eating up eight innings last night, the Yankee bullpen should be well-rested and ready to relieve Gray early should his struggles continue, which makes him difficult to consider, especially on a single pitcher site. The specific lineup being employed by the Astros today had a .356 wOBA, .200 ISO and just a 16.1 K% vs RHP this season. Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO v RHP) each have a single HR against Gray. Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) is the only player in the lineup with more than 20 career PAs against him, though only Carlos Correa is below Altuve's .767 OPS against Gray according to DailyBaseballData.com. Alex Bregman (109 wRC+, .274 ISO), Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO) and McCann are the only batters in the lineup below a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Price tags for most of those bats except for Josh Reddick ($3.8K DK, $2.8K FD) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3K DK) are fairly high. Gurriel has been tearing up post-season pitching (186 wRC+, 7.1 K%, .154 ISO, but a .458 BABIP). While it's expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn't expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight's home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he's leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).

    As reported by Daily Baseball Data Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Yulieski Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Sonny Gray

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 13.42 proj
    • 3.36 pt/$
    • $4,000
    • 10.21 proj
    • 2.17 pt/$
    • $4,700
  • Lance McCullers

    Houston Astros

    Lance McCullers starts, but has not throw more than 83 MLB pitches since July

    The Yankees have the highest run line on the board (4.59) against Lance McCullers, who has all the talent in the world (25.8 K%, 12.0 SwStr%, 4.25 ERA, 3.41 SIERA, 3.52 DRA), but is a difficult sell even at a lower than normal cost, due to injury issues that have plagued him throughout the season. He hasn't thrown more than 83 pitches in a major league outing since July and has thrown just three innings in one post-season outing this month, in which 10 of the 13 batters he faced either struck out or put it on the ground. That's what he does when he's on: strikeouts and ground balls. It could be another all-out, short outing with Brad Peacock waiting in the wings to throw multiple innings behind him. Batters from either side put the ball on the ground above 58% of the time with a hard hit rate below 30% against him this year, though RHBs gained an advantage in the peripherals, strangely enough, with a 15.3 K-BB%, .332 wOBA and six of his eight HRs allowed (LHBs 21.5 K-BB%, .267 wOBA). This could mean that Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO, 45.1 Hard%, 42.1 FB%) should be the batter players want, especially at a reduced cost. While all of the attention had been paid to his strikeouts this post-season, he did homer last night and has hit the ball extremely hard (three extra-base hits, including two HRs), when he's not striking out. Especially notable should be the sizable strike zone called against him, which really makes his post-season results look much worse than the process. Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier and surprise starter Austin Romine are the only three batters in the lineup below a .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Frazier is the cheap choice at 3B today and did have a 101 wRC+ and .173 ISO vs RHP this year. Current Yankee starters have little career data against Lance McCullers (none with a HR or more than nine PAs). While it's expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn't expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight's home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he's leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).

    Other tagged players: Brad Peacock, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier, Austin Romine

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • breaking-news
  • Corey Kluber

    Cleveland Indians

    Corey Kluber leads the slate with a 34.1 K%, 15.6 SwStr%, 2.68 SIERA and 2.05 DRA

    Corey Kluber got spanked in Game Two against the Yankees, but is clearly today's top pitcher considering the questionable health status of both pitchers in the NL game. His 34.1 K% and 15.6 SwStr%, along with a 2.25 ERA, 2.68 SIERA and 2.05 DRA all top today's board. The Yankees are implied for a slate low 3.09 implied runs with Kevin calling for sustained winds blowing in from right field at 15 mph. Players may still need to utilize a few cheap Yankee bats in order to fit Kluber into their lineup though. LHBs had a .251 wOBA and 31.3 Hard% against him (RHBs .230 wOBA and 26.6 Hard%), making Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP), Didi Gregorius (120 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP) and Gregory Bird (71 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) the most ideal salary savors. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (130 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) are higher risk plays at a higher cost, but may have lower ownership rates than usual. Tonight's home plate umpire, Jeff Nelson, is about as neutral as one can get (0.99 K-Boost, 1.00 BB-Boost). In 324 games behind the plate according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.8 K% and 7.9 BB% with him behind the plate.

    Other tagged players: Gregory Bird, Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 48.51 proj
    • 4.58 pt/$
    • $10,600
    • 29.86 proj
    • 2.53 pt/$
    • $11,800
  • Edwin Encarnacion

    Cleveland Indians

    Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP) returns to Cleveland lineup against Sabathia

    Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP) returns to the Cleveland lineup against C.C. Sabathia for Game Five. Sabathia walked three of the 24 Cleveland batters he faced in Game Two, striking out five, and hitting one. With all hands on deck, it's unlikely he goes through this order more than twice unless pitching exceptionally well. The Tribe has the only implied run line above four (4.41) on the board. Kevin's forecast calls for wind blowing in from right sustained at 15 mph, though LHBs don't hit Sabathia very well anyway (.306 wOBA, two HRs, 58.9 GB%, 14.3 Hard%). While the inclination would be to load up on RH Cleveland bats (.310 wOBA, 19 HRs, 29.9 Hard% against Sabathia this season), it's almost impossible to do if paying up for Kluber on FanDuel. Francisco Lindor (134 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Ramirez (147 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP) are top plays along with Encarnacion. Austin Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) is the top salary saver on the board. Roberto Perez (110 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP) may be under-valued behind the dish, costing less than $3K on either site. Jackson, Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis all have one career HR against Sabathia with Kipnis having the fewest PAs (17). Jackson, additionally, has three doubles and a triple in 42 career PAs. Tonight's home plate umpire, Jeff Nelson, is about as neutral as one can get (0.99 K-Boost, 1.00 BB-Boost). In 324 games behind the plate according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.8 K% and 7.9 BB% with him behind the plate.

    Other tagged players: CC Sabathia, Austin Jackson, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Roberto Perez, Francisco Lindor

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 9.58 proj
    • 2.46 pt/$
    • $3,900
    • 7.4 proj
    • 1.72 pt/$
    • $4,300
  • Daniel Murphy

    Washington Nationals

    Jake Arrieta allowed five HRs in 10 September innings while dealing with a hamstring issue

    Jake Arrieta is pitching under some friendly weather conditions (winds gusting in from right-center up to 25 mph) with his team up two games to one and on the verge of eliminating the Nationals as he gets his first start of the series, but he was limited to just 138 pitches thrown in two starts over the last month due to a hamstring issue and hasn't pitched at all since September 26th. In three September starts, he pitched 10.1 innings, allowing five HRs, striking out 10 of 48 batters faced. On the season, LHBs had a .354 wOBA, 40.5 GB% and 32.7 Hard% against him (batters from either side had a K-BB around 15%). The Nationals have the second lowest implied run line (3.4) on the board, but are below the Cubs by just two-tenths of a run. This makes both Daniel Murphy (143 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (173 wRC+, .332 ISO vs RHP) solid candidates despite wind conditions and perhaps aided by projected home plate umpire Laz Diaz's 0.96 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors (available on RotoGrinders). In 311 recorded games behind the plate, batters have a 19.6 K% and 8.0 BB%. Arrieta was very strong against RHBs this season (.266 wOBA, 48.7 GB%, 26.9 Hard%), making it more difficult to pay marginal prices for Trea Turner (116 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Zimmerman (130 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) and Anthony Rendon (131 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) when there seem to be better values available, especially if paying up for Kluber tonight.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Umpire Factors Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Jake Arrieta, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 8.88 proj
    • 2.69 pt/$
    • $3,300
    • 7.04 proj
    • 1.68 pt/$
    • $4,200
  • Stephen Strasburg

    Washington Nationals

    Stephen Strasburg struck out 10 of 26 Cubs in Game One

    There are a number of interesting dynamics in play for the Cubs against Stephen Strasburg this afternoon. Taken at face value, Strasburg's 29.1 K%, 13.0 SwStr%, 2.52 ERA, 3.37 SIERA, and 2.93 DRA are all behind only Corey Kluber on today's board, after finishing off perhaps his best major league season yet. He's the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but costs $100 more than Kluber on FanDuel after dominating these Cubs in Game One of this series, striking out 10 of 26 batters faced. Chicago's 3.6 implied run line today is actually second highest on the board though and Strasburg will have a much smaller margin for error due to the Nationals facing elimination in this game. There's also the questionable status of his health. Tanner Roark was originally scheduled to start this game due to Strasburg feeling "under the weather" the last few days. There's no doubt that he's been pressured by the media and potentially even his own team to take the ball here and could be pitching in a weakened state. That makes him a high priced, high risk pitcher, but it could also lower his ownership rate. Additionally, Kevin is calling for some strong winds in from right-center, with gusts up to 25 mph, which is another factor should aid both pitchers in this game. Laz Diaz is expected to be the home plate umpire in this affair. According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available right here on RotoGrinders, in 311 games called, batters have a 19.6 K% and 8.0 BB% with him calling balls and strikes. A 0.96 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost make him a bit of a hitter friendly umpire. Ben Zobrist (94 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP), Willson Contreras (114 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Heyward (94 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP) all have a single career HR against Strasburg, but the strong winds will be playing a factor against LHBs. Although LHBs had a 30.6 Hard% against Strasburg this year, compared to 23.8% for RHBs, he stifled batters from either side this season with both having a wOBA below .260 and K-BB above 20%. It's difficult to find strong plays in this Chicago lineup considering all factors, including Max Scherzer's potential availability out of the bullpen, perhaps Jon Jay (98 wRC+, .095 ISO vs RHP) could serve as a punt outfielder for just $2.4K on FanDuel.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Weather Page

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Stephen Strasburg

    Washington Nationals

    Stephen Strasburg will replace Tanner Roark as the Nationals' Game 4 starter

    Well, after a wild back-and-forth between the Washington Nationals coaching staff and the media, the Nationals have officially announced that Stephen Strasburg will be their Game 4 starter over the previously confirmed starting pitcher, Tanner Roark. This move does alter Thursday's two-game LDS slate pretty dramatically, as there is now another ace to compete with Corey Kluber in terms of price and projected points. Additionally, with Strasburg on the mound, the Chicago Cubs hitters should see a decrease in projected value output considering the increase in opposing starting pitching caliber from Roark to Strasburg this afternoon.

    As reported by Dan Kolko via Twitter Other tagged players: Tanner Roark

    By: breves228
    Bob Reeves

    • mlb
    • breaking-news
    • general-strategy
  • Kyle Schwarber

    Chicago Cubs

    Kyle Schwarber scratched, Jason Hayward will replace him

    With Strasburg on the hill for Washington, the Cubs will shift from Schwarber to Heyward in the outfield. This doesn't have a big impact but Heyward's power potential isn't quite as high as Schwarber's.

    Other tagged players: Jason Heyward

    By: SBK
    Stephen Keech

    • mlb
    • injury
    • breaking-news
    • roster
    • 8.64 proj
    • 3.20 pt/$
    • $2,700
    • 6.73 proj
    • 1.98 pt/$
    • $3,400
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