The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Justin Verlander not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this game to play one way or another following the initial, possibly lengthy, weather delay.
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like J.A. Happ not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to have no issues upon the conclusion of the initial weather delay.
The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Nationals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Patrick Corbin not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there is certainly a legitimate chance of a late postponement given the Nationals spotty track record in waiting out weather delays.
The A’s will get a solid matchup at home tonight versus Gabriel Ynoa, who has a 5.02 ERA, 5.00 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA with a 10.3% K-BB and 9.7% SwStr splitting time between both the bullpen and rotation. He also has a .333 xwOBA allowed with an 89.6 aEV and 8.1 % barrel rate. Ynoa has been worse over the last 30 days with a 5.87 xFIP / 5.65 SIERA, 4.6% K-BB, 2.25 HR/9 and .353 xwOBA allowed. Matt Olson (.384 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Chapman (.368), Mark Canha (.359), Marcus Semien (.337), Robbie Grossman (.337), Khris Davis (.316) and Ramon Laureano (.312) are all great options tonight. Matt Olson has been their hottest hitter with a .397 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. All A’s bats are available at $4.6k or less on Draftkings tonight despite the great matchup. The A’s will also have the benefit of a very hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Emmel. They will carry a healthy 5.52 implied line into tonight’s matchup versus Ynoa and the Orioles.
Though he’s certainly not the pitcher he once was, Kershaw is still well above average and is one of the better plays on the board tonight versus the Giants at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium. Kershaw has a solid 3.13 ERA / 3.45 xFIP / 3.72 SIERA with a 23.6% K rate, 4.2% BB rate, 50% GB rate and 12.3% SwStr. He also owns a decent .307 xwOBA allowed, 7.3% Barrels/BBE and 87.2 MPH aEV. The Giants have a league-worst 68 wRC+ with a 24% K rate vs. LHP so far in 2019. They have just a .278 xwOBA over the past 14 days, and their lineup projects to have just four hitters who have an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .300 on the year. Kershaw will have a plus pitch framer in Austin Barnes behind the plate for this matchup. Kershaw has gone 6+ innings in all 11 of his starts this year, giving up more than 3 runs in just one of those starts. The remarkable consistency makes him a great cash play, though he won’t be cheap at $11.2k on Draftkings and $10.7k on Fanduel. The Giants have just a 2.88 implied line versus him and the Dodgers tonight.
Yusei Kikuchi’s season line isn’t completely terrible, as he has a 4.78 ERA, 4.89 xFIP and 4.93 SIERA with a 10% K-BB. However, over the last 30 days Kikuchi owns an ugly 7.71 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, and 6.00 SIERA with a 1.8% K-BB, 3.0 HR/9 and 42.1% hard contact rate. He’s also allowed a horrendous .417 xwOBA over the past 30 days. The Royals have some decent options tonight that can be had at affordable prices: Whit Merrifield (134 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018), Jorge Bonifacio (125 wRC+), Jorge Soler (124 wRC+), Nicky Lopez (108 wRC+, 33 PA), Cheslor Cuthbert (102 wRC+) and Adalberto Mondesi (99 wRC+) are all solid options tonight. Jorge Soler has been the Royals’ hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .443 xwOBA. Billy Hamilton (47 wRC+) is always a dart-throw GPP option given that he’s always a threat for a steal or two and comes at cheap prices across the industry. The Royals are an intriguing tournament stack given that they will likely see low-ownership and have decent upside without breaking the bank. They currently have a 4.25 implied line for tonight’s matchup.
After trading for Edwin Encarnacion and getting Stanton back from IL for tonight’s game, the Yanks suddenly have a dangerous lineup again. They’ll face an opener (Ryne Stanek) and then project to face Ryan Yarbrough in long relief. Yarbrough has been nothing special this year as he has a 5.59 ERA / 4.51 xFIP / 4.46 SIERA with a 12.8% K-BB. Yarbrough does a good job limiting walks with just a 4.6% BB rate, but has arguably been around the zone a little too much given the .339 xwOBA allowed so far. Yarbrough has been much more vulnerable versus right-handed bats in his career (.334 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .287 xwOBA vs. LHB) and will face 8 right-handed bats in the Yankees lineup tonight. Luke Voit (154 wRC+ since 2018 vs. LHP), Giancarlo Stanton (169 wRC+), DJ LeMahieu (129 wRC+), Gary Sanchez (125 wRC+), Gleyber Torres (121 wRC+), Edwin Encarnacion (118 wRC+), and Aaron Hicks (107 wRC+) are all great options tonight. Cameron Maybin (80 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018) is also a good option given that he’s been the Yankees hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Yankees have a healthy 5.18 implied total in the Bronx vs. the Rays Tuesday night.
Pittsburgh’s 2nd ranked prospect (per Fangraphs) Keller has had an unfortunate start to the season with a horrendous 15.43 ERA so far over 7 innings in 2 starts. However, Keller’s 22.5% K rate, 5.08 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA show that things haven’t bad as disastrous as the ERA suggests. Keller did have a 3.10 ERA and 30.2% K rate over 58 innings in AAA before being called up to the majors and is a consensus top 100 prospect for a reason. He gets a nice matchup in pitcher-friendly PNC park tonight versus a weak Tigers offense. The Tigers have a league-worst 73 wRC+ with a 2nd worst 26.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They will have just three batters in their starting lineup who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .320 so far in 2019. Keller will have to deal with a terrible pitch framer with Elias Diaz behind the plate, but otherwise has plenty going for him in this matchup. He’s available for just $6.9k on Draftkings and just $5.5k on Fanduel tonight. The Tigers have just a 3.85 implied line versus Keller and the Pirates tonight.
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