MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 22nd Page Two
Seattle at Boston
| Seattle | Boston | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Joe Kelly | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-175) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.499 | 0.226 | 24.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 0.822 | 0.370 | 11.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.537 | 0.239 | 31.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.710 | 0.312 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP  | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Hernandez – King Felix is the big man on campus when it comes to pitching options tonight. His streak of 7+ innings while holding opponents to 2 earned runs or less came to an end in his last start, but I have a feeling that he is going to start a new streak tonight. Felix still owns an impressive 1.99 ERA (2.41 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.6. He’s producing a 56% ground ball rate this season and is walking a career low 1.6 batters per 9 innings. The Red Sox offense doesn’t scare me in the slightest, especially if Ortiz ends up sitting out again tonight. Rating = 9.5
Salaries: $11000 FD, $21150 DD, $12500 DK, $NA FF, $32000 SS, $21150 FTD
- Joe Kelly – Kelly is another one of those pitchers that has a low K-rate. He’s averaging less than 6 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and is sporting a mediocre 4.67 ERA. He was rocked for 7 earned runs in his last start and looks like an easy pitcher to avoid tonight against a much improved Mariners offense. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5300 FD, $10100 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $10100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Cano is very familiar with Fenway Park after playing with the Yankees for all those years. He’s very comfortable there and I’m expecting a big game from him tonight against Kelly who has given up a .370 wOBA to LH hitters this season. I like all of the LH hitters in this M’s lineup and think they could make for a very sneaky stack.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley
Boston
Avoid all Red Sox hitters against King Felix.
Atlanta at Cincinnati
| Atlanta | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Mike Minor | Vegas Moneyline | Mat Latos | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CIN (-120) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.365 | 0.966 | 0.421 | 17.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.189 | 0.524 | 0.232 | 18.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.827 | 0.361 | 21.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.630 | 0.285 | 16.40% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Minor – Minor has had some awful luck this season. He has one of the biggest gaps of any starting pitcher between his ERA (5.16) and his xFIP (3.70). If you just look at his peripheral stats, he’s having a nearly identical season to last year. You just get the feeling that he’s ready to turn the corner. That could very well start tonight against the Reds who do not hit LH pitching well and who are the 4th worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days. He’s still a bit too risky for cash games, but makes a great tournament play. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6800 FD, $12500 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $20300 SS, $12500 FTD
- Mat Latos – Latos is the exact opposite of Minor. He’s had great luck this season and has posted a 3.10 ERA despite an xFIP of 4.14. His strikeouts are down quite a bit this season and he is only generating a 7.8% swinging strike rate which is by far the lowest in his career. All that said, the Braves aren’t great against RH pitching so he could be a decent play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating =5.5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $15250 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $24800 SS, $15250 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – There’s a lot to like about Freeman tonight. First of all, he is facing a fly ball pitcher in a HR-friendly ballpark. Second, he has great history against Latos going 7/12 with 3 XBH’s. Finally, he has been swinging a hot bat with 4 multi-hit games over his last 10.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton
Cincinnati
Zack Cozart – I expect the Reds to move Cozart up in the lineup a bit tonight as they are facing a lefty, one that Cozart has hit well in the past. Cozart has faced Minor 10 times in his career and has taken him deep twice. He’s also hit a triple and a single off of him.
Additional Plays: Devin Mesoraco
Kansas City at Texas
| Kansas City | Texas | ||||||||
| Yordano Ventura | Vegas Moneyline | Colby Lewis | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-137) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.303 | 19.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.359 | 0.952 | 0.413 | 15.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.696 | 0.311 | 21.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.768 | 0.333 | 21.40% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yordano Ventura – Ventura is having a very solid sophomore campaign. He has 3.48 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 7.7. His strikeout totals have varied at different points in the season, but he comes into tonight’s game with 31 K’s over his last 5 starts. While I do like the matchup against the Rangers, I don’t like taking pitchers in Globe Life Park. Vegas has the total set at 9.0 runs thanks to the hitter-friendly environment in Arlington. For the price, I think there are better options tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $14300 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $20000 SS, $14300 FTD
- Colby Lewis – Lewis will sprinkle in a quality outing every here and there, but for the most part he has been a gas can this season. He owns a 5.52 ERA on the season and has given up a high wOBA to both LH and RH hitters. I will not be targeting him tonight against the Royals who are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6800 FD, $10800 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $16500 SS, $10800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – If you read my MLB First Look column, then you know that Gordon is my wOBA Play of the Day. He really hits RH pitching well and draws a very favorable matchup against Lewis who has given up a .412 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Norichika Aoki, Josh Willingham, Billy Butler
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Beltre has been great against RH pitching (.374 wOBA) and he’s been great at home (.421 wOBA). He gets both tonight against Ventura.
Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
| Pittsburgh | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Jeff Locke | Vegas Moneyline | Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | MIL (-150) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.171 | 0.489 | 0.218 | 8.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.596 | 0.272 | 18.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.769 | 0.339 | 18.90% | SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.711 | 0.315 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Locke – Locke has given up at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. His biggest weakness is RH hitters and he’ll have to face plenty of those tonight as he takes on the Brewers in Miller Park. The Brew Crew can really do some damage against lefties and I fully expect that to be the case tonight against Locke. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6100 FD, $12700 DD, $6400 DK, $NA FF, $18400 SS, $12700 FTD
- Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has pitched well this season. He owns a 3.32 ERA (3.55 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9. He doesn’t give up many HR’s, but he has given up 10 at Miller Park this season. Tonight he draws a pretty tough matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. While I do think he will see plenty of run support, I think he will give up a couple of runs himself. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7400 FD, $15100 DD, $8100 DK, $ FF, $23600 SS, $15100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – I was tempted to put McCutchen here, but he is 0/8 since coming back from his injury. Harrison on the other hand has been on fire over the last month or so. He’s a nice source of speed (17 SB’s) and he has some decent pop in his bat as well (10 HR’s).
Additional Plays: Russell Martin
Milwaukee
Aramis Ramirez – As mentioned above, Locke really struggles vs. RH hitters. He has given up a .339 wOBA to righties this season. I may employ a few Brewers stacks tonight as I think they are in a terrific spot. My favorite cash game play of the bunch is Ramirez who has a wOBA over .400 this season.
Additional Plays: Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Robbie Ray | Vegas Moneyline | Tommy Milone | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | MIN (-110) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.764 | 0.336 | 11.50% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.324 | 0.849 | 0.375 | 12.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.319 | 16.00% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Robbie Ray – Ray has shown some great strikeout potential in the past, but that hasn’t been the case this season at the Triple-A or the major-league level. In his first 5 starts this season, he has posted a 5.33 ERA while averaging an identical 5.33 K’s per 9 innings. Even though the Twins offense is ranked 25th against LH pitching this season, they should be able to knock Ray around a bit tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $8150 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $8150 FTD
- Tommy Milone – Milone was rocked in his last start. He gave up 6 earned runs and failed to make it out of the 2nd inning. On the season he has a 3.99 ERA (4.65 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.0. Tonight he faces a Tigers offense that is one of the best in baseball against LH pitching. He should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6000 FD, $10000 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $15000 SS, $10000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy at home vs. an average LH pitcher. I like the sound of that. Miggy is batting .296 with a .377 batting average against southpaws this season. He’s the top 1B on the board tonight.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Rajai Davis, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez
Minnesota
Danny Santana – For those of you that love hitter/pitcher handedness, you are going to love the matchup for Santana tonight. Ray has given up a .375 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Santana has a .371 wOBA vs. southpaws.
Additional Plays: Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier